10
BEHIND
THE
LINES
BEHI
THE
LINES
America divided
With the perception of reality
between Democrats and
Republicans so distorted,
could civil war really happen?
Some experts doubt an
armed confl ict could arise –
but others foresee a Northern
Ireland-style insurgency ...
By David Smith WASHINGTONJ
oe Biden had spent a year
hop ing the United States
could go back to normal.
But last Thursday, the fi rst
anniversary of the deadly
insurrection at the US Capi-
tol, the president fi nally recognised
the full scale of the threat to American
democracy. “A t this moment, we must
decide,” Biden said in Statuary Hall,
where rioters had swarmed a year ear-
lier. “What kind of nation are we going
to be? Are we going to be a nation that
accepts political violence as a norm?”
It is a question that many inside
America, and beyond, are asking.
A slew of opinion polls show a
signifi cant minority of Americans at
ease with the idea of violence against
the government. Even talk of a second
civil war has gone from fringe fantasy
to media mainstream.
“Is a Civil War ahead?” was the blunt
headline of a New Yorker magazine
article last week. “Are We Really Facing
a Second Civil War?” posed a headline
in the New York Times.
The mere fact that such notions are
entering the public domain shows the
once unthinkable has become think-
able, even though some would argue
it remains fi rmly improbable.
The anxiety is fed by rancour in
Washington, where Biden’s desirefor bipartisanship has crashed into
radicalised Republican opposition.
The president’s remark last Thurs-
day – “I will allow no one to place
a dagger at the throat of our demo-
cracy ” – appeared to acknowledge
that there can be no business as usual
when one of the major parties has
embraced authoritarianism.
Illustrating the point, almost no
Republicans attended the commemo-
rations as their party seeks to rewrite
history, recasting the mob who tried
to overturn Trump’s election defeat as
martyrs fi ghting for democracy.
With the cult of Trump more
dominant in the Republican party than
ever, and radical right wing groups
such as the Oath Keepers and Proud
Boys on the march, some regard the
threat to democracy as greater than it
was a year ago. Among those raising
the alarm is Barbara Walter, a political
scientist at the University of California
and author of a new book, How Civil
Wars Start: And How to Stop Them.
Walter previously served on the
political instability task force, an advi-
sory panel to the CIA, which had a
model to predict political violence all
over the world – except in the US itself.
Yet with the rise of Trump’s racist dema-
goguery, Walter, who has studied civil
wars for 30 years, recognised telltaleCapitol inquiry races against clock
Hugo Lowell, page 12 ‘Trump menace is darker than ever’
Jonathan Freedland, page 13 UNITED STATESclockan ever’
The Guardian Weekly 14 January 2022The big story