The Guardian Weekly (2022-01-14)

14 January 2022 The Guardian Weekly

11

signs on her own doorstep. One was
the emergence of a government that
is neither fully democratic nor fully
autocratic – an “anocracy”. The other
was a landscape devolving into iden-
tity politics where parties organise
along racial, ethnic or religious lines.
Walter said: “By the 2020 elections,
90% of the Republican party was
white. On the task force, if we were to
see that in another multiethnic, multi-
religious country which is based on
a two -party system, this is what we
would call a super faction, and a super
faction is particularly dangerous.”
Not even the gloomiest pessimist is
predicting a rerun of the 1861-65 civil
war with pitched battles. “It would
look more like Northern Ireland and
what Britain experienced, where it’s
more of an insurgency,” Walter con-
tinued. “It would probably be more
decentralised than Northern Ireland
because we have such a large country
and there are so many militias.
“They would turn to unconventional
tactics ; in particular, terrorism.

The strategy would be to scare the

American public into believing the

federal government isn’t capable of

taking care of them.”

A 2020 plot to kidnap Gretchen

Whitmer, the Democratic governor

of Michigan, could be a sign of things

to come. Walter suggests that opposi-

tion fi gures, moderate Republicans

and judges deemed unsympathetic,

might all become potential assassi-

nation targets. “I could also imagine

situations where militias, in conjunc-

tion with law enforcement in those

areas, carve out little white eth-

nostates. It would certainly not look

anything like the civil war that hap-

pened in the 1860s.”

W

alter notes that most

people tend to assume

civil wars are started by

the poor or oppressed.

Not so. In America’s case, it is a back-

lash from a white majority destined to

become a minority by around 2045, an

eclipse symbolised by Barack Obama’s

election in 2008.

The academic explained: “The

groups that tend to start civil wars are

the groups that were once dominant

politically but are in decline. They’ve

either lost political power or they’re

losing political power and they truly

believe that the country is theirs by

right and they are justifi ed in using

force to regain control because the

system no longer works for them.”

A year after the 6 January insurrec-

tion, the atmosphere on Capitol Hill

remains toxic amid a breakdown of

civility, trust and shared norms. Sev-

eral Republican members of Congress

received threats, after voting for an

otherwise bipartisan infrastructure

bill that Trump opposed.

The two Republicans on the House

of Representatives select committee

investigating the 6 January attack,

Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, face

calls to be banished from their party.

Democrat Ilhan Omar of Minnesota,

a Somali-born Muslim, has suff ered

Islamophobic abuse.

Yet Trump’s supporters argue that

they are the ones fi ghting to save

democracy. Last year, Congressman

Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina

said: “If our election systems continue

to be rigged and continue to be stolen,

then it’s going to lead to one place and

that’s bloodshed.”

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor

Greene of Georgia, who has bemoaned

the treatment of 6 January defend-

ants jailed for their role in the attack,

last month called for a “national

divorce” between blue and red

Talk of a second civil

war has gone from

fringe fantasy to

mainstream media



▼Tough times:

armed groups,

such as the Proud

Boys, far left,

proliferate all

over the US and

many Americans

are at ease

with the idea of

violence against

the government;

congresswoman

Marjorie Taylor

Greene, centre

back, who

wants a ‘divorce’

between blue

and red states;

Trump-supporting

Republicans

want fellow

party member Liz

Cheney, below, to

be banished; Joe

Biden and Donald

Trump, far right

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