The Guardian Weekly 14 January 2022
14
on 6 January – or they apologise for
having, rightly, branded that day a
“violent terrorist attack ”.
That’s because they fear Trump
and his supporters. In order not to
rouse their fury, they have to accept
the big lie that the 2020 presidential
election was stolen and that political
violence is to be indulged when it
comes from your own side.
Trump’s tactics, his
authoritarianism, ha ve not shamed
or repelled Republicans – as
some hoped might be the result
of 6 January – but infected them.
What was once the eccentric stance
of the lunatic fringe – that Trump
won an election that more than 60
diff erent court judgments ruled he
had lost – is believed by two-thirds
of Republican voters.
More alarming still, surveys
show 30% of Republicans say that
“true American patriots may have
to resort to violence in order to save
our country ”. Word the question
slightly diff erently, and that fi gure
rises to 40%. Not for nothing did the
editor of the New Yorker last week
ask if a second civil war is coming.
You might imagine that all this
should secure Biden’s position.
Surely the majority of the US
electorate will rally to the message
he set out so trenchantly in a speech
last week, taking direct aim at
Trump and the “web of lies” spread
to soothe his “bruised ego”. Surely
they will recoil from a Republican
party that is breaking from the
fundamentals of democracy. But
that is not how it’s playing out.
Biden has the lowest approval
It’s worth recalling here how shaky
the president’s position was from
the start, seeking to govern with
a diminished, razor-thin Democratic
majority in the House and a 50-
deadlocked Senate. Despite that,
he has passed some major bills and
made some big, even transformative
moves. As David Frum , the former
speechwriter to George W Bush, puts
it : “In 11 months, Biden has done
more with 50 Democratic senators
than Barack Obama did with 57.”
Yet, it’s not enough. Biden passed
a vital infrastructure bill, but his
bill for social spending and climate
action is stalled. His ratings took
a hit with the speed of the Taliban
takeover of Afghanistan after
August’s chaotic US withdrawal. And
his 4 July declaration that Americans
could celebrate “independence
from Covid-19” now looks
horribly premature.
You can make a strong case
that none of these things are
Biden’s fault. His spending bill is
stalled because of two Democratic
senators who simply refuse to get
on board. (Given their politics,
Biden probably deserves credit for
getting them to back him as often
as they have.) The withdrawal
from Afghanistan was under a deal
agreed by Trump. As for Covid,
what could any president do when
more than a quarter of the country –
overwhelmingly Trump supporters- refuse to get vaccinated?
But politics is an unforgiving
business. Voters are used to
blaming the man in the White
House, especially when they face
rising bills and daily costs as they
do now. To turn things around,
Biden can start with passing that
key spending bill, even if it means
stripping it of some cherished, and
necessary, programmes. Voting
rights legislation, to block those
continuing Republican eff orts to
load the dice yet further in their own
favour, is also a must.
One way or another, Democrats
have to go into November’s
midterms with a record to run on.
Defeat would not guarantee the
return of Trump two years later, but
it would make it much more likely.
That is a prospect to chill the blood
of all those who care about America - and democracy.
JONATHAN FREEDLAND IS A GUARDIAN
COLUMNIST
Donald Trump
and his followers
are emboldened
in their mission
ELIJAH NOUVELAGE/EPArating of any US president at
this stage of his term, barring
Trump himself. Polls suggest
that Democrats will lose seats in
November’s midterm contests,
thereby losing control of the House
of Representatives and perhaps the
Senate. That will leave Biden unable
to pass any legislation without
Republican approval.
For the Biden presidency , 2022
is make or break. If it breaks, the
ground will be laid for the return
of Trump in 2024 , with fewer
restraints , able to openly espouse
the autocrat’s creed that elections
are illegitimate unless he wins them,
that he alone should hold offi ce and
that violence is justifi ed to maintain
his power.R
epublicans are working
hard in the states to
unlevel the playing fi eld
in Trump’s favour. They
are rewriting electoral law to make
it harder to vote and handing extra
powers over the running of elections
to Republican-controlled state
legislatures. They want to remove
one of the safety mechanisms
that ensured the integrity of the
2020 contest: fair-minded election
offi cials. To that end, they are setting
about fi lling those all-important
positions with Trump loyalists. Put
simply, they want fewer people
voting and their people counting.
Current Republican strength is
a combination of the resilience of
public support and its ability to game
the system in its favour. But it is
also a function of Biden’s weakness.The big story
America divided