4 Thursday January 13 2022 | the times
News
Immigration will be the only driver of
population growth from 2030 onwards,
according to official projections.
The Office for National Statistics
(ONS) said that fewer births and lower-
than-expected life expectancy would
end “natural” population growth.
By 2025 there will be more deaths
than births, leaving net migration as the
only factor that raises the number of
people living in the UK.
James Robards, from the ONS, said
analysts had revised their assumptions
in the light of new data on fertility and
mortality. “Given a higher number of
deaths and fewer births are projected,
net international migration is expected
to play an increasing role in population
growth,” he said.
Overall, millions fewer people will be
living in the UK by 2045 than expected,
according to the latest projection,
longer before having children and
smaller families. There will be fewer
young children in the UK by 2045, with
the fertility rate in the 2020s and 2030s
projected to be below that in 2001,
when fertility was at a record low.
Change will also be driven by an age-
ing population, with the number of
people aged 85 set to almost double
between now and 2045 from 1.7 million
to 3.1 million. Between now and 2045A British Council employee arrested
while visiting relatives in Iran and jailed
for spying has been released on appeal
and flown back to London.
Aras Amiri, a student at Kingston
University working on art projects for
the British Council in the UK, went to
visit her ailing grandmother in 2018.
Iranian officials did not explain why
she was released. The news will bring
hope to the family of Nazanin Zaghari-
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Tumble dryers are a greater
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and when released they absorb
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for a baby that never existed
admitted fraud and dishonestly
obtaining services. Oxford crown
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Johnson, 39, had avoided paying
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The sweets Midget Gems will be
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speech. Dr Erin Pritchard, a
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led the campaign for a new name.Elderly energy crunch
The predicted 50 per cent rise in
energy bills from April could
trigger a health emergency for
millions of older people, Age UK
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Cryptic clues Page 10 of TimesZACHARY CULPIN/BNPSHope for Nazanin after Iran frees British Council worker
Ratcliffe, the British-Iranian dual
national similarly jailed in 2016.
The council said yesterday that it was
“very pleased to confirm” that Amiri
had been acquitted of all charges
against her after a successful appeal.
Amiri, who is in her mid-30s, is one of
a number of British citizens and resi-
dents with Iranian links who have been
jailed after visiting Iran.
Besides Zaghari-Ratcliffe, with
whom Amiri shared a cell in Tehran’s
Evin prison and whose husband, Rich-
ard Ratcliffe, has staged a high-profilecampaign demanding her release,
Anoosheh Ashoori, a British-Iranian
retired engineer, was arrested in 2017
while visiting his mother and also jailed
for spying.
Morad Tahbaz, who has British,
American and Iranian passports, was
involved in an environmental
campaign to save the Asian cheetah
which the Iranians claimed was a front
for spying on nuclear facilities.
Amiri was originally described by the
Iranian officials as the “head of the Iran
desk” at the British Council. Theyaccused her of leading British “cultural
infiltration” of the country.
The council said that she was a junior
employee who worked to support and
showcase the Iranian contemporary
art scene in Britain. Her family said that
she had made previous visits to Iran
without any problems.
The council closed its operations in
Iran in 2009 amid threats to its staff.
Amiri lost an initial appeal against
her conviction in August 2019. It is
thought that she was acquitted by the
Supreme Court some time ago.Richard Spencer
Middle East Correspondent
Population estimate scaled back
as deaths set to overtake births
which reflects how the structure of the
population is changing and continues
to tilt towards older age groups.
In 2014 the ONS had estimated that
the UK’s population would reach al-
most 75 million by 2040. Statisticians
now say it will reach 71 million by 2045.
Immigration will have a greater role
in supporting population growth as net
migration increases by about 15,
more than expected each year from- Net migration — the difference
between the numbers arriving and
leaving — will be about 205,000 people
a year, according to the projection.
Over the next decade, net migration is
predicted to add 2.2 million to the UK’s
population.
But “natural change” — the differ-
ence between births and deaths — will
reduce the population by 59,000 per
year, or about 600,000, over the period.
This is the result of a decline in the
number of women giving birth, waiting
there will be an estimated 1.4 million
more deaths than births. But the popu-
lation will still grow by 3.9 million,
driven by net migration, with an esti-
mated 5.3 million more people coming
to the UK than leaving.
James Robards, from the ONS, said:
“These projections suggest slower
growth than we’ve previously said. This
is because of lower assumptions both
about future levels of fertility and mor-
tality improvements.
“Given a higher number of deaths
and fewer births are projected, net
international migration is expected to
play an increasing role in population
growth.”
Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration
Watch UK, said: “These projections
point to the impact of mass immigra-
tion and uncontrolled borders, with
more than two million people expected
to come from overseas than leave over
the next decade.”Matt Dathan Home Affairs Editor Models for population growth have
predicted millions fewer UK residents
in 2040 than previously thought
2020 25 30 35 40 4568
67697071727374 mSource: ONS2012
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2016
2018
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