The Economist - USA (2022-01-15)

TheEconomistJanuary15th 2022 BriefingCentralAsia 17

theleastsurprisingturnofevents.Toa de­
greewhichMrTokayevonlynowacknowl­
edges,thewealthfromKazakhstan’svast
reservesofoil,coalandmetalores,andthe
development that was expected to flow
fromthem, has been spread unequally.
Thathasbredresentmentamongoil­work­
ers,aswellaslow­earnersinthecountry­
sideandsmallercities.Thegreatestbene­
ficiaries have been well­connected oli­
garchs.Just 162 people holdhalf ofthe
country’swealth,accordingtokpmg, an
accounting firm. The oil industry has
madeseveralofMrNazarbayev’srelatives
enormouslyrich.
Thegovernmentexplainedthephasing
outofsubsidiesforliquefied petroleum
gas,usedinmanyvehicles,asa marketre­
form,butmanyKazakhstanissawitasa
sopto oligarchsattheexpense oftheir
much poorer compatriots. Unwilling to
riska repeatofeventsinZhanaozena de­
cadeago,whenstrikingoilworkerswere
gunned down by trigger­happysecurity
goons,thegovernmentwasquicktooffer
concessions, notably reintroducing the
subsidies.Butitalsowarnedthattheprot­
estswouldnotbeallowedtocontinue.
The carrot­and­stick approach was
straight from the authorities’ well­
thumbedgameplan.Buteventsthende­
partedfromthescript.ManyinKazakh­
stanfindit oddthattheprotesterssudden­
lyturnedviolent,seizingweaponsfrom
statearsenalsandoccupyingtheairport,
insteadofsingingandchantinginsquares.
Noonepoppeduptoclaimleadershipof
the demonstrations or to articulate de­
mands.Perhapsthestate’ssystematicsup­
pressionoverdecadesofallbuta manufac­
turedoppositiongoessomewaytoexplain
this.Butitdoesnotexplaintheattackson
strategicsitessuchasAlmaty’smaintele­
comstowerandtheairport,whichsuggest
a co­ordinatedmovementseekingtochal­
lengethoseinpower.Nordoesitexplain
thesuddenvanishingofthesecurityforces
supposedtoprotecttheairport.Thevio­
lencedoesnotseemtohavestemmedfrom
a mass,Western­backed “colour revolu­
tion”,whateverMrPutin’sloudclaimsto
thecontrary.

Themostplausibleexplanationisthat

popular,leaderlessprotestswerehijacked

bymembersoftheelitewithmafiathugsat

theirdisposal,eithertoprotecttheireco­

nomicinterestsor,moreambitiouslystill,

tooustMrTokayevinfavouroftheirown

people.Anincentivetomovenow,says

NargisKassenovaofHarvardUniversity,is

Mr Nazarbayev’s worsening health. He

caughtcovid­19in2020,andlookedvisibly

frailerwhenmeetingMrPutininStPeters­

burginDecember.

Atanyrate,MrTokayev’salliesprivately

blamerelativesofMrNazarbayevforinsti­

gating the insurrection. The president

himselfhasnotpubliclyaccusedhispre­

decessor or his family. Indeed, officials

havedeniedrumoursthatoneofthefor­

merpresident’snephews,SamatAbish,the

deputyheadofintelligence,hasbeendis­

missedfromhispostorarrestedlikehis

boss.ItmaybethatMrTokayevhasstruck

somekindofdealwiththeNazarbayevs,

wherebytheclangetssomekindofimmu­

nityinreturnfora promiseforthemallto

stepback,theoldmanincluded.Theopac­

ityandambiguityofthecurrentsituation

isonereasontothinkthesagaisnotover.

OtherCentralAsian governments are

lookingonappalled.Kazakhstanwaslong

consideredthestrongest,moststableand

mostsuccessfulstateinCentralAsia.Yet

the region’sfivecountries all facehuge

economicproblemsandsharebrittlere­

gimesthatrespondtopoliticalchallenges

mainlywithharshness.

Thesecommonfeaturesarea product

oftheregion’ssharedhistory.Atthetime

ofRussia’simperialexpansioninthesec­

ondhalfofthe19thcentury,CentralAsia

wasa congeriesofclansandkhanates.Ma­

nywereproudoftheirdescentfromthear­

miesofGenghisKhanandTamerlane.Rus­

sianandsubsequentlySovietrulebrought

development,butlittleinthewayofna­

tion­building.Indeed, thoughtheSoviet

Uniontheoreticallydividedtheregioninto

ethnically definedrepublics, inpractice

boundarieswerequitearbitrary.It remains

a jumbleofethnicities,including500,

descendantsofKoreansforciblydeported

fromtheRussianfareastinthe1930sow­

ingto suspectedsympathieswithJapan.

Kazakhstanboastsa bigRussianminority,

ofnearly20%ofthepopulation,plusKore­

ans,Jews,Uzbeks,Dungansandmore.

The raw,landlocked statesthatarose

outoftheSovietUnion’swreckageinherit­

eda greatdealofSovietbaggage.Thisin­

cludestraditionsofautocraticrule,envi­

ronmentaldamage—thedisappearanceof

theAralSeaafterwaterfromtheriversthat

feeditwasdivertedforcotton­growingis

only the most notorious instance—and

state­dominatedeconomies.Soviethabits

die hard. Forced labour in Uzbekistan’s

cottonfieldsendedonlya coupleofyears

ago.OnlylastyeardidKazakhstandoaway

with over 200 categories of jobs from

whichwomenwerebarred,amongthem

driving heavy­goods vehicles. The bans

weresupposedlytoensure“theprotection

of maternity and women’s reproductive

health”—in effect,preserving womenas

goodbreedingmachines.

Strongmen are the norm in Central

Asia.EmomaliRahmonhasruledTajiki­

stansince1994,whencivilwarragedinthe

newlyindependentrepublic.Kazakhstan,

UzbekistanandTurkmenistanareononly

their second presidents since indepen­

dence.Glossy­coatedsteedsfeaturepromi­

nentlyinthepersonalitycultofTurkme­

nistan’scurrentruler,GurbangulyBerdy­

mukhamedov,“TheProtector”,justasthey

doinKimJongUn’sNorthKorea.TinyKyr­

gyzstan istheexception, anominal de­

mocracy.Buteventhere,powerhasonly

oncepassedsmoothlyfromonepresident

tothenextafteranelection,ratherthanin

mini­revolutionsplayedoutonthestreets.

Whatismore,thenewpresidentsoonfell

outwiththeoldone,andhadhimarrested.

The region’sautocrats seekto justify

crackingdownonalloppositionbytalking

aboutstabilityandgrowth.Yet,forallthe

glitzynewbuildingsintheircapitals,rare­

ly are the leaders as visionary as they

claim.Economicmodelshavenotchanged

fastenough.Economiessufferfromthere­

UZB

EKI

STA

N

Dushanbe

Tashkent

Bishkek Almaty

Nur-Sultan

Novosibirsk

Tehran Ashgabat

Osh

Kyiv

Baku

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

Crimea

IRAN

IRAQ

TURKEY

UKRAINE

GEORGIA

AZER.

ARM.

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

CHINA

Zhanaozen BaikonurCosmodrome

Caspian

Sea

Black

Sea

Yekaterinburg

Aral

Sea

TURK

MEN

ISTA

N

500 km

Chinese-backed

infrastructure

Gaspipelines

Oilpipelines

Railways

*Orunderconstruction

Source:Mercator Institute

forChinaStudies

Existing Planned*

Silk side-road

Intra-regional trade, selected regions

2020, % of total trade

Source:UnitedNations Conference on Trade and Development

6040200204060

Imports Exports

Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

South-East Asia

East Asia

Europe