34 The Economist January 15th 2022
China
Politicsin 2022All change, bar one
E
lite chinesepolitics take place in a fog
of obscurity. But one forecast is com
monly accepted: Xi Jinping will still be Chi
na’s ruler next year and beyond. Having
completed a decade in power, he is likely to
defy convention and remain in office. But
throughout the rest of the hierarchy, huge
changes are under way. They will reach a
climax late this year with a sweeping shuf
fle at the top. Mr Xi may be a rulebreaker,
but he has not altered the underlying polit
ical rhythm. A fiveyearly turnover has be
gun of leaders high and low. Throughout
officialdom, the tension is evident.
In speech after speech, bureaucrats
harp on a task of paramount importance:
ensuring the success of the Communist
Party’s 20th congress. The party is typically
vague about when this will be held—all it
will say is the second half of the year. It
usually does not confirm the date until a
few weeks beforehand. But such gather
ings, held every five years, usually take
place in October or November. They are
largely rubberstamp affairs, yet play a cru
cial role. They “elect” a new Central Committee of nearly 400 members that con
venes immediately afterwards to appoint a
new Politburo (currently 25 people) and
military high command. Only when that is
done will officials begin to relax.
China’s political landscape has changed
considerably since Mr Xi took charge. He
has seized more levers of control than any
of his predecessors, including over eco
nomic matters, which were once largely
the remit of the prime minister, now Li Ke
qiang. In 2018 he secured a revision of the
constitution that scrapped the term limit
on the presidency, allowing him to keep
that job indefinitely. There is no term limit
on his job as the party’s general secretary,
the holder of which is by convention also
head of state and the army. So Mr Xi could
remain China’s leader for life.
His position seems secure. There is lit
tle sign of the bitter political feuding thatpreceded his own anointment as leader at
the party’s 18th congress in 2012. But the
buildup to the 20th congress will not be
plain sailing. Mr Xi has to decide on many
appointments and stay vigilant. His deci
sion to scrap the presidential term limit
was controversial. People affected by his
sweeping purges of enemies and corrupt
officials are likely to be nursing grievances.
Some changes are enforced by the in
cumbents’ ages. Mr Xi still appears to re
spect unwritten rules about when senior
officials should retire. Assuming he con
tinues to do so, at least 11 of the 25 current
members of the Politburo, including two
in the Standing Committee, will have to
step down after the congress, because they
are 68 or over. (Mr Xi will be that age, but
the rule will not apply to him.)
That means that some notable Politbu
ro members may face retirement. One is
Liu He, a deputy prime minister who has
been at the forefront of economic policy
making as well as trade talks with America.
He will soon turn 70. Another is Yang Jie
chi, China’s most senior diplomat, who
will be 72. The Standing Committee mem
bers who are likely to leave are Han Zheng,
a deputy prime minister in charge of Hong
Kong affairs, and Li Zhanshu, the head of
China’s legislature. All eyes will be on their
slots. If either or both of their replace
ments are 62 or younger, one of them could
succeed Mr Xi at the 21st congress in 2027
should he decide to step down then.
The future of another member of theOfficials will have a nervous year, obsessed by sweeping leadership changes→Alsointhissection
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