36 China The Economist January 15th 2022
Oneaccidentawayfromdisaster
I
n an ageof superpower rivalry and distrust, it is odd to talk of
good fortune smiling on America’s relations with China. But in
one important domain, the rivals have shared a long streak of as
tounding luck. It is two decades since the last fatal encounter be
tween the armed forces of America and China. Today the skies and
seas around China swarm with a growing number of planes and
warships from each side. In Beijing, scholars and officials talk of
when, not whether another accident will occur. Then they wonder
how such a crisis would be managed, by two countries locked in
open ideological competition and stalked by rising nationalism.
The last incident involved a collision between a Chinese navy
fighter and an American spy plane, high over the South China Sea
on April 1st 2001. The Chinese pilot died after his jet broke apart.
Badly damaged, America’s naval reconnaissance plane, a lumber
ing, propellerdriven ep3 with 24 crew aboard, limped to a Chi
nese military airfield on the tropical island of Hainan, landing
without permission. The crew’s detention by the People’s Libera
tion Army (pla) was an early test for George W. Bush, who had been
president for less than three months. The crew were freed just 11
days later, after America’s ambassador to Beijing, Joseph Prueher,
signed a letter saying his government was “very sorry” for the Chi
nese pilot’s death. While noting that the ep3 made an emergency
landing to save its crew, the letter added that America was “very
sorry”, too, for the plane’s arrival in Hainan without clearance.
Through deft translation into Mandarin, China presented the let
ter as a formal apology. Party chiefs declared the pilot, Lieutenant
Commander Wang Wei, a revolutionary martyr and Guardian of
the Sea and Sky. Official media told citizens to channel their grief
into hard work to make China strong, and the country moved on.
In 2001 both governments took risks to end the standoff. Cha
guan covered the ep3 collision during an earlier posting to China.
Hours before the Americans flew home, he interviewed locals in a
hot, rainy street near the Americans’ detention place in Hainan.
Ignoring police officers listening in, passersby shouted that the
ep3 pilot should be put on trial. Irate university students told of
campus protests squelched and of handwritten posters torn
down. They were right to sense a fudge. For all their demands that
America end surveillance flights near China, party chiefs signalledtoBushadministration envoys early on that they wanted a
deal, in the interests of broader bilateral relations. Notably, China
wanted entry to the World Trade Organisation and to host the 2008
Olympic Games, and America had leverage on both counts. After
making clear his desire to see the dispute resolved, President Jiang
Zemin left for a tour of Latin America.
America compromised, too. Pentagon officials gave reporters
images of Wang Wei flying so close to American planes on previ
ous missions that he could be seen holding up his email address.
When debriefed later, the ep3 crew from April 1st described the
Chinese pilot making two reckless passes within ten feet (three
metres), before misjudging a third and hitting one of their propel
lers. The plaaccount flouted laws of physics and common sense:
that Wang Wei was a safe 400m away when the larger, slower ep3
veered and rammed him. But to get the crew home, American ne
gotiators set aside the question of blame.
Luck played a role in 2001. Mr Bush handed the crisis to his new
secretary of state, Colin Powell, a pragmatist with unusual influ
ence as a former general and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff,
able to get quick decisions out of the White House. Mr Prueher was
a former admiral and head of Pacific Command, who as a naval avi
ator spoke with confidence about midair intercepts. That said,
previous contacts with Chinese generals did not help, he recalls in
a telephone interview. The plawas, he says, “nonexistent in solv
ing this problem. They did not answer my calls.” The ep3’s surviv
al was a stroke of fortune. Brigadier General Neal Sealock, who as
America’s defence attaché in Beijing led talks on the ground in
Hainan, accords the ep3 pilot “much honour” for saving his crew,
thereby averting a catastrophe or even a war if 24 Americans had
died in a crash, or, worse, been shot down. Powell’s clout some
what shielded American negotiators in China from Washington
politics. Two decades on, a vastly more partisan Congress and me
dia in America would surely denounce or obstruct any compro
mise like that struck by the Bush administration. Today, “if China
is a problem, which it is, a bigger problem is sorting out the effec
tiveness and efficiency of our government,” worries Mr Prueher.All lucky streaks end eventually
For their part, Chinese nationalists would be harder to manage to
day. Most Chinese get their news from oftenstrident online out
lets, rather than the staid television channels that played down
the crisis in 2001. Chinese scholars see some positive changes,
starting with the pla’s growing capabilities. Zhang Tuosheng, a
former military academic and diplomat, is an expert on crisis
management at the Grandview Institution, a Beijingbased think
tank. In 2001, he says, American officers debated destroying their
own plane on the ground to preserve its secrets, but thankfully de
cided against lobbing a missile at a Chinese airbase. China’s mod
ernday strength should make America still more cautious now,
he argues. Mr Zhang praises emergency hotlines and codes of con
duct agreed by plaand American commanders over the years. But
China and America remain fundamentally divided on how to
avoid accidents, he concedes. The plastresses “national security”,
meaning that America should stop coming near China. Americans
stress “safety”, meaning sober behaviour during close encounters.
Meanwhile, Chinese pilots are growing more aggressive. Since
2021 American and allied surveillance planes have logged multiple
nearmisses with plaaircraft, some, it is said, within 100 feet(30
metres). When complaints are lodged, China’s response is:stay
away. A disaster looms. Resolving it will be far harder next time.nChaguan
Lessons from a fatal Chinese collision with an American spy plane, 21 years ago