The Economist - USA (2022-01-15)

The Economist January 15th 2022 Middle East & Africa 39

has not kept up, leading to hours­longtraf­
fic  jams—and  thus  dirtier  air.Whenthe
cars are moving, the situationisoftenun­
safe  for  cyclists.  Accordingto theWorld
Bank, road accidents are a leadingcauseof
death in the Middle East andnorthAfrica.
Cycle  lanes  would  help,butthereare
few  in  the  region.  Driversandroadside
sellers oppose them. Even wherethelanes
exist, they are often ignored.Shortlyafter
Egypt  introduced  cycle  lanesinCairoin
2015, drivers began using themasparking
spots.  In  Damascus,  Syria’scapital,there
are 10km of cycle lanes, saysMohamadAl
Hawarii of Yalla, Let’s Bike, alocalcycling
group.  “But  there  is  no  commitmentto
them...most drivers do not knowthatthese
spaces are designated for bicycles.”
Tunisia also has some cyclelanes.One
nearing  completion  on  the  capital'slake­
side will allow riders to enjoya scenicday
out. But it is good for little else.“Thepro­
blem is that disaggregated cycleroutesof­
ten  exist  in  isolation,  meaning cyclists
have a few kilometres of ridingbeforethey
have to dismount and re­enterthetraffic,”
says  Janene  Tuniz  of  un­Habitat, a un
agency that deals with urbandevelopment.
“You  couldn't  comfortably  commutethat
way.” Most countries in the regionalsolack
racks or shelters for storing bikes,orbike­
sharing schemes.
Until recently, Arabs had littlereasonto
give  up  their  cars.  In  Beirut,forexample,
most trips are within a reasonablecycling
distance,  but  Lebanese  could getcheap
loans to buy cars and fuel washeavilysub­
sidised. This is changing. Miredinaneco­
nomic  crisis,  the  Lebanese  nowfacelong
queues  at  petrol  stations,  whichareoften
short of supply. The government,likema­
ny in the region, has cut fuelsubsidies.Cy­
cling,  all  of  sudden,  seems like a less
hasslesome alternative. 
It  has  influential  champions.Muham­
mad bin Zayed, the de facto ruleroftheUn­
ited Arab Emirates (uae), hastakenanin­
terest;  Hamdan  bin  Muhammadal­Mak­
toum,  the  young  crown  princeofDubai,
posts pictures of himself cyclingonInsta­
gram.  The  uae,  which  hostsprofessional
races,  has  many  kilometres of cycling
track. Egypt does not, but PresidentAbdel­
Fattah  al­Sisi  has  called  onhispeopleto
take up cycling. One reason: studiesbythe
World  Bank  and  others  havefoundthat
traffic congestion costs Egypta significant
chunk of gdpeach year.
There  are  other  reasons, too.Health­
care costs are rising across theArabworld,
where obesity and its associatedailments,
such as diabetes, are a costly problem.Cars
are  a  big  source  of  greenhouse­gasemis­
sions  and  air  pollution.  Ditching four
wheels  for  two  would  improveallofthis.
Covid­related  lockdowns  gave Arabs a
sense of what more cyclist­friendlystreets
would be like. Many enjoyedit. n

Ethiopia

Happy Christmas,

war is over?

T

hemoodattheinternationalairportin

AddisAbaba,Ethiopia’scapital,isstrik­

inglyupbeat.Inrecentweeksarrivingpas­

sengershavebeenmetbysmilingdancers

andpatrioticmusic.Garlandsofflowers

andbrightyellowcarpetsadornthearriv­

alshall.Bannersproclaimthe“GreatEthio­

pianHomecoming”,a state­sponsored ef­

forttoconvinceEthiopianslivingabroad

tocomehomefortheholidays(Ethiopians

celebrated Christmas on January 7th).

EchoingJohn Lennon,thestate’sChrist­

masgreetingscomewithanimpliedmes­

sage:warisover.

Ethiopia’scivilwarhascertainlycooled

down.Inlate 2021 rebelsfromthenorthern

region of Tigray were on the brink of

stormingthecapitalandtopplingthegov­

ernmentofAbiyAhmed,theprimeminis­

ter.Abiydeclareda stateofemergencyand

called on residents to fight. Embassies

evacuatedstaffandurgedtheircitizensto

leave.Butina matterofweekstheEthiopi­

anarmy pushedtherebelsintoretreat.Ti­

gray’srulingparty,theTigrayanPeople’s

LiberationFront(tplf),askedfora cease­

fire.Thoughfightingcontinuesonseveral

fronts,Abiyhasdeclaredvictory.

Beforethewar Abiywasknown asa

peacemaker.Hewona Nobelprizein 2019

forending hostilitieswithneighbouring

Eritrea,andwaspraisedforhelpingtome­

diatea power­sharingdealinSudan.Ethio­

pia’syear­longcivilwar,duringwhichthe

armyanditsallieshavecommittedwar

crimes, has damaged that reputation. Now

Abiy is hoping to mend it. First his govern­

ment announced that the army would not

seek  to  reoccupy  Tigray.  Instead  he  urged

Tigrayans to fight the tplf. Then, on Ethio­

pian  Christmas,  he  freed  several  opposi­

tion  leaders  from  prison,  including  Jawar

Mohammed,  his  chief  rival  from  the  Oro­

mo ethnic group, and six tplfofficials. 

The prime minister described the move

as  an  act  of  victor’s  mercy,  saying  that  it

was necessary for Ethiopia to break the cy­

cle of war. The government wants freed op­

position leaders to take part in a so­called

“national dialogue”, which is to weigh mat­

ters  such  as  the  country’s  controversial

system of ethnically based federalism. 

But  they  are  unlikely  to  do  so  just  yet.

“As  it  is,  the  intended  national  dialogue

can  be  neither  inclusive  nor  impartial,”

says  Jawar’s  ally,  Merera  Gudina.  Other

powerful  Oromo  opposition  figures,  such

as Dawud Ibsa, leader of the Oromo Libera­

tion  Front  (olf),  remain  in  custody.  The

olf’s  armed  wing  is  deemed  a  terrorist

group by the government and is therefore

excluded from talks, too. 

An  even  bigger  challenge  is  the  tplf,

which the government also calls a terrorist

group. Officially it will not be invited to the

dialogue. But it is possible that the govern­

ment  may  want  to  start  separate  peace

talks  with  it.  An  internal  document  pre­

pared  by  the  ruling  party  and  seen  by  The

Economistdid not rule this out. “There was

a  clear  suggestion  that  we  should  be  talk­

ing to them,” says a senior ruling party offi­

cial who attended the meeting at which the

paper was discussed.

It  would  be  a  controversial  move.  The

release  of  tplf officials  from  prison

sparked an uproar, especially among Abiy’s

allies  in  Amhara,  the  second  most  popu­

lous region and the focus of fighting in re­

cent  months.  The  National  Movement  of

Amhara, an opposition party, called the re­

lease  a  “historic  mistake”.  Negotiation

with  the  tplf would  probably  provoke

even  more  anger.  “How  can  we  talk  with

people  who  are  still  waging  war?”  asks  an

Amhara ruling­party parliamentarian. Ma­

ny  would  prefer  the  government  to  lay

siege to Tigray until its leaders surrender.

That still looks like the plan. No aid of

any kind has entered Tigray since mid­De­

cember and almost no medicine has been

allowed in since June. “Our hospital is out

of supplies,” says a doctor at Tigray’s larg­

est one. After more than a year of war some

400,000  people  are  starving  and  millions

more are running out of food. Drones and

fighter  jets,  meanwhile,  pound  Tigrayans

from the air. On January 8th at least 56 peo­

ple  were  reportedly  killed  in  an  air  strike

on a camp for internally displaced people,

prompting  aid  agencies  to  suspendtheir

work. If Abiy is serious about givingpeace

a chance, he should first stop fighting.n

N AIROBI

The government’s peaceful message

is undercut by its actions

What future without peace?