The Economist - USA (2022-01-15)

42 Europe TheEconomistJanuary15th 2022

become  harder  once  the  ground  in  the

country’s east thaws in spring. Mr Stolten­

berg said that Russia had been open to the

idea  of  more  dialogue,  but  declined  to

agree to a schedule of further meetings. Mr

Putin will make the final call, but his emis­

saries  showed  little  satisfaction.  Russian

proposals were not “a loaf from which you

can peck out some...sultanas”, complained

Alexander Grushko, the head of the coun­

try’s  delegation  to  Brussels.  If  diplomacy

failed, he thundered, the threat from nato

would be “countered by military means”. 

If  Russia  does  indeed  attack  Ukraine,

American  officials  have  promised  “mas­

sive” economic sanctions, far in excess of

those  imposed  after  its  previous  assaults

in 2014, when it annexed Crimea. They hint

at  disconnecting  Russia  from  the  swift

network, which connects banks to one an­

other, and banning it from receiving goods

with  American  electronics  in  them.  The

measures  would  be  “like  none  he’s  ever

seen”,  warned  Joe  Biden,  America’s  presi­

dent, after a conversation with Mr Putin on

December 7th. 

Europeans  have  also  explored  sanc­

tions on banks and individuals close to the

Kremlin,  says  Sabine  Fischer  of  swp,  a

think­tank  in  Berlin,  but  they  are  more

nervous. There are “serious concerns” over

kicking Russia out of swift, which has its

headquarters  in  Belgium,  she  says,  be­

cause it would hurt ordinary Russians and

eusanctions are supposed to be targeted.

There is also uncertainty over the fate of

Nord Stream 2, a controversial gas pipeline

from  Russia  to  Germany.  American  offi­

cials claim that Germany has agreed to sus­

pend the pipeline in the event of war. Ger­

many’s  coalition  government  remains  di­

vided over the issue, and some officials are

wary of restricting gas supplies just as Eu­

rope faces a looming energy crisis.

Ukraine itself, the focal point of the cri­

sis, has sat largely on the sidelines of this

diplomacy. On January 2nd Mr Biden spoke

to  Volodymyr  Zelensky,  Ukraine’s  presi­

dent,  for  the  second  time  in  a  month  and

on January 10th Mr Stoltenberg welcomed

the country’s deputy prime minister to

Brussels to showsolidarity. YetUkraine

hasbeengivenjustoneopportunitytopar­

ticipateinthetalks,attheoscemeeting,

whichiswidelyviewedasa sideshow.

Meanwhile,Russiahasshownnosign

ofsteppingback(seemap).Itsbuildupre­

mainsslowandisnotyetlargeenoughfor

a “serious”offensive,saysa Europeanin­

telligence official. Russia has deployed

mostly equipment, rather than fully

mannedunits;personnelwouldneedtobe

flowninlater.Butthefactthatthecountry

hasbegunsendingforcesfromitseastern

militarydistrict,over6,000kmfromUk­

raine,isa“horriblesign”,warnsKonrad

MuzykaofRochanConsulting,whotracks

Russianmilitarymovements.“Mypredic­

tionisthesenegotiationswillendwithno

successwithinseveralmonths,”saysRus­

lanPukhov,thedirectorofcast,a think­

tankinMoscow.“TheriskofwarwithUk­

raineisverybig.”n

Minsk

Kyiv

Seaof

Azov

UKRAINE

BELARUS

RUSSIA

Crimea

Dni

epe

r

BlackSea

Controlledby

Russian-backed

separatists

250 km

Artillery

Selected bases

Armoured

vehicles

Tanks

Source: Rochan

Consulting

Russian forces

Jan 2022

France’selection

Unfashionably

gauche

O

n the anniversary ofFrançois  Mit­

terrand’s  death  on  January  8th  Anne

Hidalgo,  the  mayor  of  Paris,  went  in  the

driving rain to lay flowers at his grave. She

was seeking “inspiration” from the late So­

cialist president, but it looked more like a

requiem for the party’s current candidacy.

Polls  show  Ms  Hidalgo,  the  Socialists’

nominee,  winning  just  4%  in  the  first

round  of  the  French  presidential  election

in  April.  A  result  that  bad  would  not  only

disqualify  her  from  the  run­off  but  fail  to

meet the 5% threshold for taxpayers to re­

imburse half of her campaign spending. 

What has happened to the once mighty

French  left?  Under  the  Fifth  Republic,  the

grand old Socialist Party has provided two

presidents  (Mitterrand  and  François  Hol­

lande) and landmark social legislation, in­

cluding the abolition of the death penalty

in 1981 and the legalisation of gay marriage

in 2013. A decade ago it controlled the pres­

idency,  both  houses  of  parliament,  and

most regions and big cities. In Ms Hidalgo,

it has an internationally respected mayor,

praised for turning over swathes of central

Paris  to  cyclists  and  joggers.  The  French

Green  party,  with  which  the  Socialists  of­

ten  govern,  also  has  a  presentable  nomi­

nee,  Yannick  Jadot.  Its  big  issue,  climate

change, is constantly in the news. 

Yet  neither  Ms  Hidalgo,  nor  Mr  Jadot,

nor  any  of  the  candidates  further  to  the

left—includingJean­LucMélenchon,a 70­

year­oldleft­wingfirebrand,anda clutch

of other anti­capitalists and commu­

nists—currently stands any chance of

reachingthefinalrun­off.

ThetroublefortheFrenchleftisthree­

fold.First,toomanycandidateshavefrag­

mentedthevote.None seemstohavethe

cloutorthecharismaneededtorallythe

othersbehinda singlenominee.MsHidal­

gohadbackedtheideaofa “citizens’prim­

ary”asa waytodothis.Duetotakeplaceon

January27th­30th,thisisanon­binding

online vote proposed by 130,000 grass­

rootssupportersasa waytomeasuresup­

portforthedifferentcandidates,whether

theylikeit ornot.ButMrJadotargues,rea­

sonablyenough,thathehasalreadywon

hisownparty’sprimary,andhasnointen­

tionofheedingtheresult.MrMélenchon

saysallthisisnothisproblem.

Second,themainstreamFrenchlefthas

losttheworkingclass.Itsbaseisnowmade

uplargelyofcity­dwellersandpublic­sec­

toremployees.Thisistoonarrowtowin

nationalelectionseasily.Inthepast,Mit­

terranddeftlylinkedtheSocialiststothe

French Communist Party to secure the

blue­collarvote.Nowthebiggestsliceof

thatvotegoestothenationalistMarineLe

Pen:33%ofblue­collarworkersbackher

forpresident,nextto3%forMsHidalgo.

Suchvoterswanta harderlineonlawand

order.Cycling,oneofMsHidalgo’ssigna­

tureissues,maybepopularincentralParis

andGreen­run cities suchas Bordeaux.

Elsewhere,votersdependontheircarsand

resentbeingmadetofeelguiltyforit.

Third,Francehasshiftedtotheright.

Today37%ofvoterssaytheyareonthe

right,upfourpoints since2017, nextto

20%whosaytheyareontheleft,downfive

points inthesame period. Asaformer

economyministerinaSocialistgovern­

ment, Emmanuel Macron in 2017 drew

fromthemoderatelefttobuild hisnew

centristpartywhenheranforthepresi­

dency.Manysuchvotersweresubsequent­

P ARIS

Disaster looms for the left in the

presidential race

Nobody left

France, voting intention in first round of

presidential election, main candidates, %

Source:Nationalpolls

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

202 2022

NOSAJJMAMFJ DJ

Zemmour

Hidalgo

Jadot

Mélenchon

Pécresse

Le Pen

Macron