one of the worst case scenarios for the Cuban gambit appears likely to generate sufficient
terror and chauvinism to consolidate support for Bush.
IRAQ. When Bush ordered Schwarzkopf's army to halt its march into southern Iraq, he
probably believed that Saddam Hussein could be ousted by the combined insurrections of
the Kurds and the pro-Iranian Shiites. Later, Bush may have hoped that an Israeli
Entebbe-style raid would spare him the profound embarrassment of Saddam Hussein's
further tenure in office. As noted, Bush has obliquely threatened to renew the bombing of
Iraq on a number of occasions after the formal end of Gulf hostilities. Using the services
of UN inspector cum agent provocateur David Kay, Bush could of course manufacture a
new confrontation with Iraq at the drop of a hat, using allegations of Iraq's actual or
imminent possession of nuclear weapons. But, as Bush is doubtless aware, a renewed
bombing spree against Iraq may create more public relations problems than it solves,
since it calls attention to Bush's very incomplete fulfillment of his own stated goal of
removing Saddam Hussein from power during the Gulf war. By contrast, if Bush could
eliminate Saddam Hussein through bombings or commando operations, he might derive a
rather ephemeral benefit from the exercise. An attempt by Bush to settle accounts with
Saddam is therefore a prominent option for an October surprise, but might prove
insufficient by itself to save Bush the election.
INDIA-PAKISTAN. Bush knows the Indo-Pakistani war gambit well from his
background as Kissinger's speaking tube in December, 1971. The British side of the
Anglo-American intelligence combination are experts in using subversion, agents of
influence, assassination, manipulation, communal violence, and black propaganda to play
India against Pakistan. Now that Moscow is no longer likely to align with India, certain
circles in London may judge that the time has come to accelerate the further subdivision
and partition of the sub-continent. The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi before he could
assume the office of Prime Minister was a giant step in that direction.
The Anglo-American game plan might include intervention on the side of Pakistan in the
context of an Indo-Pakistani war, letting the Pakistani ground troops bear the brunt of the
ground action while Anglo-American air and naval forces bombed and blockaded India
back into the stone age. An international scandal was created shortly after the close of the
Gulf war when a Washington think-tanker blurted out to an audience of of journalists and
diplomats that the US Government had prepared a plan for duplicating Operation Desert
Storm against India. In such a confrontation, Bush could point to India's nuclear weapons
capability, and the actual use of nuclear weapons could not be ruled out. The obvious
possibilities for nuclear terror and the colossal scale of the fighting that might result,
including possible Chinese intervention across the Himalayas, give the Indo-Pakistani
gambit undeniable appeal to Bush. Since this might turn into a prolonged war, it would
also tend to provide pretexts for the further institutionalization of emergency rule at
home.
BRAZIL. Since the destruction of Brazilian sovereignty over the Amazon River basin is a
leading preoccupation of the London oligarchy, this is necessarily a priority consideration
for Bush. With world-wide Malthusian hysteria focused on the UN's ECO '92 conference