42 Middle East & Africa The Economist January 22nd 2022
T
he deathin 2020ofKhalifabin
Salman alKhalifa, the world’s lon
gestserving prime minister, prompted
mourning in Bahrain, but also a ripple of
excitement. His nephew, Salman bin
Hamad alKhalifa, was slated to take his
place. Prince Salman, who is first in line
to the throne, was seen as a potential
bridge between the kingdom’s ruling
Sunnis and its oppressed Shia majority.
In 2011, when the authorities, backed by
Saudi and Emirati forces, crushed Shia
protests, he called for a dialogue between
the sects. Shia leaders, who have endured
prison and torture, hoped Prince Salman
would free those in jail, give followers of
their faith equal rights and perhaps even
pass a law against discrimination.
None of that has happened. The main
Shia opposition group, alWefaq, was
banned in 2016 for creating “a new gener
ation that carries the spirit of hatred”—
though it would be easy to implicate the
government in that crime, too. AlWe
faq’s leader, Ali Salman, and hundreds of
lowlier members remain behind bars.
But without some kind of deal with the
Shias, the kingdom will flare up again,
predict both officials and critics of the
government. Some fear a worstcase
scenario, in which violence in tiny Bah
rain (an island 48km long and 16km wide,
with a population of 1.8m) spills over into
the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia,
which is just 20km away, and home to
both restive Shias and big oilfields.
Improving SunniShia relations in
Bahrain was always going to be difficult.
The king, Hamad bin Isa, is surrounded
by people who prefer that he rule with an
iron fist. One such figure is Prince Sal
man’s younger brother, Nasser, the na
tional security adviser and reportedly the
king’s favourite son. Two prominent
cousins—Khalid, the minister for the
royal court, and Khalifa, a military man—
also take a hard line with the Shias. Then
there are Bahrain’s neighbours, Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
They treat the kingdom as a client and
oppose any hint of democracy. Western
powers, meanwhile, have stopped press
ing hard for reform.
The Shias themselves are divided.
Ayatollah Isa Qassim, the spiritual leader
of alWefaq, moved from London to Qom,
Iran's holiest city, a few years ago. He
seems intent on turning the group into a
cat’s paw of Iran. Some Shias paint the
alKhalifa clan as foreigners, althoughtheyarrivedfromtheArabianhinterland
centuries ago. Others are more willing to
talk with the regime. Abdullah alGhurai
fi, a Shia cleric, had a meeting with the
king last year. But such moderates are
often branded as traitors.
Prince Salman (pictured) could cer
tainly do more. He has excluded Shias
from serious jobs and seems unenthused
about leading parliament, which last
year voted to curb its already limited
powers still more. According to his Twit
ter feed, the prince chairs weekly cabinet
meetings, though it is not clear what is
discussed. The “vision” section of his
website reads simply: “Bahrain will
continue to realise its ambitious goals,
benefiting all in the Kingdom.”
But the fiscal picture is bleak. Ordin
ary Bahrainis have suffered the pain of
austerity in recent years—most of all
Shias, who have gained little from the aid
of other Gulf states. “Hunger and limited
opportunities could ignite another wave
of protests,” says a Shia businessman in
Manama, the capital.
Prince Salman has won praise for
rolling out covid19 vaccines to all Bah
rainis, regardless of sect. Some prisoners
have been freed and the authorities are
said to be torturing less. But even his
courtiers say the prince needs a jolt. He
spends much of his time in his palace.
Meanwhile, his failure to soothe Sunni
Shia tensions is setting Bahrain up for
trouble. “The sectarian divide from a
decade ago hasn’t healed,” says the busi
nessman. “For now the island is quiet,
but we’re used to a lull before the storm.”BahrainFull of tension
MANAMA
Sunnis and Shias remain as far apart as everBusy realising ambitious goalsoggi, a Saudi journalist butchered at the
kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul. Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president,
was once enthusiastic about the case. But
his enthusiasm has waned in recent
months as he pursues a rapprochement
with the Gulf states. He is expected to visit
Saudi Arabia next month and meet Mu
hammad bin Salman, the crown prince,
who is widely accused of having ordered
Khashoggi’s murder (the prince denies
this). The trial has now stalled, and is un
likely to resume until summer.
Prince Muhammad himself faces two
lawsuits in America, one filed by Khashog
gi’s widow, the other by Saad alJabri, a for
mer Saudi intelligence official who accus
es the prince of plotting his murder. Both
invoked a 1991 law that allows American
courts to hear civil suits against alleged
foreign torturers.
Heads of state can assert sovereign im
munity. That does not help Prince Muham
mad, though: he is the de facto ruler but
does not yet hold the top job. His lawyers
have sought to shield him on other
grounds, including “conductbased immu
nity”, which protects officials acting in
their official capacity. It sets up a curious
paradox. Prince Muhammad has said that
he did not order Khashoggi’s murder. To
claim immunity he must argue that, if he
did order whatever he denies ordering, he
did so on behalf of the state.
Not every case is so dark. Depositors in
Lebanon have found themselves largely
locked out of their foreigncurrency ac
counts since October 2019, when the coun
try slipped into financial crisis. They have
begun to sue Lebanese banks abroad to
seek restitution. Banks insist they have no
jurisdiction. In at least two cases, however,
judges have ruled that European consum
erprotection laws do grant standing to sue
(though none of the claimants has yet re
covered any money).
There is some hypocrisy to all of this, of
course. Western courts tend to be less dili
gent about prosecuting their own citizens
for crimes they commit in the Middle East
and Africa. There have been no serious
convictions over the cia’s torture pro
gramme. Former President Donald Trump
pardoned soldiers and contractors accused
of wartime atrocities.
un investigators say Erik Prince, the
founder of Blackwater, a security firm, has
repeatedly violated the arms embargo on
Libya, sending guns and mercenaries to a
warlord there. He has not been charged
with anything and denies the claims.
There is not total impunity in America,
though. On January 13th the Justice Depart
ment announced that two Florida men
who worked at a dive shop had been sen
tenced to jail time for trying to exportre
breathers (a banned item) to Libya. The
wheels of justice turn slowly indeed.n