The Economist - USA (2022-01-22)

The Economist January 22nd 2022 MiddleEast&Africa 43

CoalinSouthAfrica

Soot, loot, reboot

T

ravel eastfrom Johannesburg—South
Africa’s  economic  capital—and  dusty
industrial towns line the road to the city of
Emalahleni (“place of coal” in the local lan­
guage, Tswana). The flat veld is dotted with
mines  and  the  smokestacks  of  coal­fired
power stations.
This  is  South  Africa’s  coal  belt.  Here,
miners  dig  up  about  three­quarters  of  the
coal that fuels one of the world’s most coal­
fired  economies.  The  sooty  stuff  provides
27% of the world’s energy, but no less than
77% of South Africa’s (see chart 1). That in­
cludes  almost  all  of  its  electricity  and—
uniquely—28%  of  its  petrol  and  diesel,
which it synthesises from coal using a pro­
cess perfected during an oil embargo in the
1980s aimed at ending apartheid. 
The  fuel  that  once  helped  preserve
apartheid continues to cause problems for
the party that eventually supplanted it, the
African  National  Congress  (anc).  Diversi­
fying away from coal would help end South
Africa’s  decade­long  energy  crisis,  and
with  it  a  period  of  economic  stagnation,
marked  by  flat  or  falling  incomes.  The
brewing political battle over whether to do
so may also determine the fate of Cyril Ra­
maphosa, South Africa’s timidly reformist
president,  who  hopes  to  secure  the  anc’s
nomination  to  run  for  a  second  term  in
2024 at a party conference later this year. 
The case for shifting away from coal is
straightforward. South Africa is windy and
sunny. It can produce renewable energy by
building  new  wind  turbines  and  solar
farms  far  more  cheaply  that  it  can  by  dig­

ging  up  coal  and  shovelling  it  into  power

stations  that  have  already  been  built.

(What’s more, many of these coal plants are

old and will soon have to close.) Since wind

and  solar  farms  can  be  built  quickly,  they

are  well­suited  to  help  end  a  desperate

power  shortage.  The  national  utility,  Es­

kom,  has  rationed  electricity  by  schedul­

ing  regular  power  cuts  every  year  since

2018,  making  it  harder  to  run  almost  any

kind of business. 

The  winds  blowing  through  inter­

national  capital  markets  are  pushing  in

this  direction,  too.  Although  Eskom  is

broke and unable to service its debts with­

out help from the government, private in­

vestors are keen to put money into renew­

able projects. So are Western governments.

At  the  cop26  climate  conference  in  Glas­

gowlastyear,a groupofrichcountriesin­

cludingAmerica,Britain,FranceandGer­

many pledged $8.5bn in grants, cheap

loans and investments to help finance

SouthAfrica’sshiftawayfromcoal.South

Africa, foritspart, publishedambitious

newclimatecommitmentstostartcutting

greenhouse­gas emissions from 2025, a

decadeearlierthanpreviouslyplanned.

Thecopdealplacesspecialemphasis

onsupportingtheworkersandareassetto

behurtbythephasingoutofcoal.Thatis

nosmallconsideration:theindustryem­

ploysroughly200,000people,directlyand

indirectly,andpropsuptheregionalecon­

omyaroundEmalahleni.Suchconcernis

typicaloftheconciliatoryapproachtopol­

iticsofMrRamaphosa,oncea hard­charg­

ing mining­union boss who these days

preferscompromiseoverconflictandcon­

sensusoverrapidchange.

TakethelatestversionofSouthAfrica’s

IntegratedResourcePlan,whichmapsthe

futureofenergyinfrastructure.Thedocu­

ment,approvedin2019,proposeddecom­

missioning35,000 ofthe40,000 mega­

watts(mw) ofcoal­powercapacitycurrent­

lyinoperationby2050.Mostnewcapacity

is  to  come  from  wind  and  solar.  But  little

has happened since, largely because of re­

sistance  from mining  unions,  populists

and  politicians  who  have  grown  rich  sell­

ing overpriced coal to Eskom. 

Among  the  most  prominent  advocates

of  coal  is  Gwede  Mantashe,  the  minerals

and  energy  minister  and  a  former  mine­

worker. In the 1980s, when Mr Ramaphosa

was running the National Union of Mine­

workers, Mr Mantashe co­founded and led

the union’s branch in Witbank, as Emalah­

leni  was  then  known.  He  later  rose  to  the

top of the union.

Although once a close ally of Mr Rama­

phosa, Mr Mantashe has tried to thwart the

president’s  plans  to  ease  the  power  short­

age by attracting private investment in re­

newable  generation.  Regulations  used  to

make it practically impossible for big busi­

nesses such as mines to generate their own

power, since private generation capacity of

more than a megawatt required unobtain­

able  licences.  Mr  Mantashe  doggedly  re­

sisted efforts to raise the cap to 50mw, de­

spite pleas from power­starved firms. In an

act of uncharacteristic boldness, Mr Rama­

phosa  overruled  him  last  year  and  raised

the cap to 100mw. 

The  episode  has  done  little  to  chasten

Mr  Mantashe,  who  is  continuing  to  lobby

for  new  coal­burning  plants,  even  as  he

drags  his  heels  about  approving  deals  by

private  investors  to  build  wind  and  solar

farms.  He  has  also  seemed  determined  to

award  an  expensive  20­year  contract  for

“emergency” electricity to Karpowership, a

Turkish  operator  of  floating  power  sta­

tions. That deal has been blocked by envi­

ronmental regulators and also faces a legal

J OHANNESBURG

Weaning the country off its main energysourceisprovingtricky

Not going gently into that good night

Hey big burners

Top-five coal-intensive G20 countries, 2020

By primary energy supply, % of total

Source:ClimateTransparency

1

Indonesia

Australia

India

China

SouthAfrica

100806040200

Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables

Other

Coal