The Economist - USA (2022-01-22)

The EconomistJanuary22nd 2022 Europe 47

Vaccinemandates

Must yoube

jabbed?

E

arlierthismonthPresidentEmman­

uel Macron saidhewishedto“pissoff”

those who had chosennottobevaccinated

against  covid­19. France’s 5m unjabbed

people  will  soonbebarredfromrestau­

rants,  theatres andlong­distance trains,

among  other  things.Yettheymightcon­

sider  themselveslucky.ItalyandGreece

have  passed  laws making vaccination

obligatory for allresidentsover 50 and 60

respectively. Austriahasjustdonesoforall

adults, and Germanymayfollowsuit.

Most  Europeancountrieshavealready

excluded  unvaccinatedpeoplefromlarge

swathes of publiclife,tovaryingeffect(see

Graphic  detail).Inmanyplacesjabsarea

condition of employmentinhospitalsand

care  homes.  Butfacinga stubbornwallof

vaccine  scepticism, some governments

have gone one stepfurther.“Iwouldhave

preferred to go anotherway.But...weneed

to  take  this  drasticstep,”saidAlexander

Schallenberg,  Austria’s then chancellor,

announcing theplaninNovember.Austria

and Germany havesomeofthelowestvac­

cination rates inwesternEurope.

Many feel queasyattheprospectofgov­

ernments  orderingthemtohaveneedles

stuck  in  their  arms.Proponentscounter

that the unvaccinatederodethefreedomof

other  citizens  by swamping health­care

systemsandmakingnewlockdownsmore

likely.Eitherway,compulsoryvaccination

carriesseveralpotentialrisks.

Startwiththelegalandlogisticalpro­

blems.Austria’slaw,whichwillapplyto

7.4mpeople—allresidentsover 18 barpreg­

nantwomenandthosewithmedicalex­

emptions—willtakeeffectonFebruary1st.

Frommid­Marchtheunjabbedfacefines

ofatleast€600($680),withfurtherchecks

andfinesapplicableeveryquarter.Butthe

agencyresponsibleforthevaccineregistry

saysitwillnotbereadyuntilApril.(Spot­

checkswillapplybeforethen.)Thelegal

systemcould buckleifmany refuseniks

opt forfinesoverjabs. Germany,where

parliamentwilldebatevaccinemandates

nextweek,doesnotevenhavea registry,

makingenforcementlookyettrickier.

Moreover, constitutional courts will

frownonmandatesthatlookprematureor

disproportionate.ManyreckonEuropean

governmentscoulddomoretobalancethe

stickofrestrictionswiththecarrotofbet­

teroutreach.Ratherthansimplyimpose

top­downmeasures,theycouldfindvacci­

nation championsin communitieswith

largenumbersofunjabbedpeople,includ­

ingsomeminoritygroups.

Asecondconcernisepidemiological.

TheGermanandAustrianmandateswere

proposedwhentheDeltavariantwasdom­

inant.Butlawsmaynotproveasadaptable

asthesars­Cov­2virus.Whatifthenext

variantrequiresamodifiedvaccine,ora

freshbooster?ForJanoschDahmen,a Ger­

manGreenmpanddoctor,uncertaintysur­

roundingthebehaviouroffuturevariants

is a strong reason to press ahead with

(well­designed) compulsory vaccination

now.Othersdisagree.AleadingAustrian

virologisturgedthecountrytorethinkits

planinthefaceofthewidespreadimmuni­

tytheOmicronwavewillconfer.

A thirdworry isbacklash.MostGer­

manssupportcompulsion.Butalthough

movingfromnudgestomandatesmayin­

ducesomescepticstogetthejab,others

may become implacable foes. Anti­vax

protests,manyofthemfuelledbythefar

rightandpronetoviolence,arespreading

rapidly. A vaccine mandate will surely

swellthemfurther.Toavoidcreatingsocial

“fissures”theCzechsrecentlyscrappeda

plantoobligeover­60stogetjabbed.(The

age­limitedmandatesinGreeceandItaly

haveprovedlesscontentious.)

Nooneknowsifcompulsionwillwork.

One Austrian panel found that roughly

two­thirdsofthe1mremainingunjabbed

adults  were  unlikely  to  get  vaccinated  at

any cost. But such surveys have their lim­

its. The French, for example, turned out to

be more relaxed about jabs than polls had

once suggested. As other countries grapple

with  their  vaccine  hold­outs,they  will  be

watching the experimentsinthe German­

speaking countries closely. n

B ERLIN

Arguments overcompulsorycovid-19

vaccination areragingacrossEurope

Britain

Poland

Sweden

Norway

France

Iceland

Ireland

Spain

Portugal

Neth.

Bel.

Croatia

Denmark

CzechRep.

Germany*

stria

taly

Germany*

stria

taly

Slovenia

Hung.

65 70 75 80

% of people with second

dose of covid-19 vaccine

Jan 20th 2022 or latest

Mandateis*planned

†implemented(also includes Greece)

Source:OurWorld in Data

85

Vaccine mandate

No

data

TheNordicleft

Back in charge

T

hese arehappy  days  for  the  Nordic

left.  For  the  first  time  since  2001,  they

are running all four big Nordic countries—

all  five,  counting  tiny  Iceland.  Four  of  the

five  leaders  are  women:  Magdalena  An­

dersson,  a  Social  Democrat,  became  Swe­

den’s  first  female  prime  minister  in  No­

vember.  The  Nordic  model  envied  by  for­

eign  left­wingers  (though  not  always  un­

derstood) is having a moment.

So one might have expected a satisfied

mood among the members of Byggnads, a

construction  trade  union,  who  met  at  a

folkhuset (community  centre)  in  Stock­

holm  in  December.  Instead  they  were  an­

gry. The lo, Sweden’s trade­union confed­

eration, had just struck a deal with the em­

ployers’  association  and  the  government

that  would  reform  labour  law  to  make  it

easier to fire workers. In exchange the state

will pay more to retrain them.

“This is only for the benefit of the com­

pany  owners,”  said  Felix  Gravel,  who  in­

stalls insulation. He fears the proposed law

will let firms bully their employees. Bygg­

nads opposes the reforms, and Mr Gravel is

questioning  his  allegiance  to  the  Social

Democrats: “Do they stand up for me? I’m

just a dirty worker.”

Nordic  Social  Democrats  are  winning

elections,  but  they  lack  their  old  clear  vi­

sion of the future. After decades of liberal­

isation,  welfare  states  are  less  generous

and inequality has risen. Fears of immigra­

tion  and  crime  have  boosted  populists,

STOCKHOLM

What do the now ruling Nordic Social

Democrats want?