The Economist - USA (2022-01-22)

48 Europe The Economist January 22nd 2022

A

ngelamerkel’slethargycovered

Germanylikea “carpetoffog”,raged

FriedrichMerzin2019.Therewasnever

anylovelostbetweenGermany’sex­

chancellorandthemansheforcedoutof

a topjobintheconservativeChristian

DemocraticUnion(cdu) in2002.Tail

between hislegs,MrMerzlefttheBunde­

stagin2009,onlytore­emergenine

yearslatertocompetefortheparty

leadershipMrsMerkelhadvacated.His

candidacythrilledcdumembersseeking

conservativeredmeat.Butmoderates

foundhisarroganceoff­putting.Hisbid

flopped,asdidanotherlastyear.

ButinSeptemberthewinnerofthat

secondcontest,ArminLaschet,ledthe

cduanditsBavariansisterpartytoelec­

toraldefeat.Nowlickingitswoundsin

opposition,thecduhasfinallyturnedto

MrMerz,whotakesoverasleaderthis

weekend.Onceknownasa machotax­

cutterwitha tasteforteasingthepoliti­

callycorrect,MrMerz,66,nowpresents

himselfasa moderate.Hepromisesto

courtwomen,gaypeopleandyoung

voters,andtopursuesocialjustice.

Willthisconvincethesceptics?cdu

centristsseemwillingtoholdfire,

thoughsomemps sodistrusttheultras

aroundMrMerzthattheyhavediscussed

leavingtheparty.Right­wingerswant

himtosmitethewoke.“Weneeda self­

confidentcivicpolicythat...clearlyposi­

tionsitselfagainstidentity­politics

excesses,”saysChristophPloss,a young

cdu mpwhohaslongsupportedMr

Merz.Thenewleader’sfirsttestcomesin

severalstateelectionsthisyear.

Atthenextfederalelectionin 2025 Mr

Merzwillhopetoleadtheconservatives’

bidtounseatOlafScholz,thechancellor.

Fornowhewillfocusonbread­and­

butterissueslikejobs,industrialchange

andinflation,nowata three­decade

high.MrMerzsaystheEuropeanCentral

BankmustfollowtheFederalReserve

andpreparetoraiserates.Thattheecbis

independentdoesnotmatter.MrMerz

wantstodispelthefog.

FriedrichMerz

A not verynew broom

B ERLIN

AngelaMerkel’soldfoetakesoverasleaderofGermany’sChristianDemocrats

If atfirstyoudon’tsucceed...

forcing centre­left parties to move right on

those  issues,  especially  immigration.

Meanwhile,  young  woke  urbanites  are

turning to more radical left­wing parties.

Denmark’s Social Democrats have shift­

ed most on immigration. In 2019 Mette Fre­

deriksen became prime minister pledging

asylum  rules  even  stricter  than  the  previ­

ous  centre­right  government’s.  She  is  im­

plementing  “ghetto  laws”  to  break  up

neighbourhoods  where  high  rates  of  im­

migration  and  crime  coincide.  That  sucks

the air out of the populist Danish People’s

Party: its vote halved at the election in 2019.

Ms  Frederiksen  has  also  introduced

popular leftist policies such as a plan to tri­

ple  construction  of  social  housing.  But

while her anti­immigrant turn has won ov­

er people who fret about foreigners, it has

lost  some  urban  progressives.  In  munici­

pal  elections  in  November  the  Social

Democrats’  vote  share  in  Copenhagen  fell

by  ten  points;  the  Red­Green  Alliance

gained  ground.  Pelle  Dragsted,  a  former

Red­Green mp, says young people consider

the Social Democrats uncool.

In  Sweden  Ms  Andersson  is  copying

some  of  Ms  Frederiksen’s  moves.  Sweden

took  in  huge  numbers  of  refugees  during

the migrant crisis of 2015­16. Gang wars, of­

ten involving immigrants, have raised the

gun­murder  rate,  though  it  is  still  low.

After  taking  over  from  Stefan  Lofven,  the

previous  Social  Democratic  prime  minis­

ter,  Ms  Andersson  vowed  to  deport  more

immigrant  criminals.  It  later  turned  out  a

company  she  hired  had  employed  an  ille­

gal immigrant to clean her house.

Itmay  be  too  late  to  win  back  many

working­class  voters.  The  Sweden  Demo­

crats,  who  began  as  a  neo­Nazi  party  but

are now less extreme, hold 18% of the seats

in parliament. The centre­right Moderates

once  shunned  them,  but  now  collaborate

with them. Lisa Pelling of Arena Idé, a pro­

gressive  think­tank  in  Stockholm,  co­

wrote a book aboutneighbourhoods where

the Sweden Democrats do well. It is tough

reading  for  leftists.  “Voters  may  suffer

from service cuts or bad schools, but they

see  their  problems  entirely  through  the

lens of crime and immigration,” she says.

In  their  heyday,  Nordic  Social  Demo­

crats used to win 40% or more of the vote.

Now they are lucky to get 30%. That forces

them into fragile coalitions: when Ms An­

dersson  negotiated  on  pensions  with  the

socialist Left party, the Centre Party retali­

ated by voting down her budget. Its leader,

Annie Loof, said Ms Andersson was betray­

ing  the  “broad  centre”.  Ms  Andersson  was

forced to resign after seven hours in office.

She returned a few days later heading a mi­

nority  government,  but  the  opposition

passed  its  own  budget  in  the  confusion.

She is now stuck with it.

Voters  who  move  right  over  immigra­

tion  often  become  more  economically

conservative,  too.  In  Finland  the  populist

Finns Party, which once backed more pro­

gressive  taxes,  has  turned  laissez­faire.

Leftists worry that Sanna Marin, Finland’s

popular  young  Social  Democratic  prime

minister,  appeals  mostly  to  hip  elites.  It

did not help when in December she missed

a phone alert that a colleague had covid­19;

she was out nightclubbing with celebrities.

The  left’s  new  vision  revolves  partly

around  climate  change.  Curiously,  green

parties do poorly in Nordic countries; oth­

er  leftists  take  their  votes.  When  Labour

won  Norway’s  election  in  September,  the

country’s Greens won just three of the 169

seats  in  parliament.  Yet  social  democrats’

climate policies are not always ambitious.

In  their  coalition  agreement,  Labour  and

Norway’s  Centre  Party  said  they  would  let

companies explore for more oil and gas in

the country’s vast offshore fields.

Inequality may be a more promising is­

sue. Nordic post­tax incomes are relatively

equal  for  rich  countries,  but  have  grown

less so since the 1990s. There are sharp ru­

ral­urban  disparities  in  health  care.  In

Sweden the Left party’s new leader, Nooshi

Dadgostar,  the  daughter  of  Iranian  immi­

grants, has mostly ignored identity politics

in favour of class issues such as eliminat­

ing for­profit private schools.

The clearest vision of the Nordic mod­

el’s  future  is  in  northern  Sweden,  where

hydroelectricity  is  powering  climate­

friendly  industries.  The  huge  Northvolt

factory  will  supply  batteries  for  much  of

Europe’s  electric­vehicle  industry.  The

town  of  Lulea,  where  a  coalless  “green

steel”  plant  has  just  opened,  is  building

5,000  new  homes.  Green  jobs  and  public

housing are good terrain for the left. Else­

where the Nordic left’s programme is a bit

of a smorgasbord, but its politicians are op­

timistic.  “We  have  been  on  thedefensive

for maybe 30 years,” says Mr Dragsted. “We

are going on the offensive now.”n