51requirerequire any visitors fromanyvisito overseas—overseas—whowho are al-areal-
readyready required to test negative before boarding ready required to test negative before boarding requiredtot gativebeforeboarding
theirtheir flights—their flights—flights—toto remto remremain in an isolation hotel for ain in an isolation hotel for anisolationhotelfor
14 14 days to ensure they aren’t harboring an infec14 days to ensure they aren’t harboring an infecdaystoensurethe harboringaninfec---
tion.tion. This even applies to Chinese citizens re-tion. This even applies to Chinese citizens re-Thisevenappli hinesecitizensre-
turningturning homturning homhomee frome fromfrom abroad. Athletes, coaches, abroad. Athletes, coaches, ab thletes,coaches,
supportsupport staff and msupport staff and mstaffandmediaedia arriving for the Olymedia arriving for the Olymar rtheOlympicspics pics
mustmmust be vaccinated to avoid such quarantines, ust be vaccinated to avoid such quarantines, bevaccinatedtoavo uarantines,
but Chinese offibut Chinese offibutChineseofficialscials are hedging against any risk cials are hedging against any risk arehedgi anyrisk
withwith an intensive testing and semwith an intensive testing and semanintensivetestingandsemi-isolation pol-i-isolation pol-pol-
icyicy that will separate OlymthatwillseparateOlympicspics visitors fromvisitor local
residents.residents. All GamAllGameses travelers will be required travelerswillbere
toto test negative 72 hours before they board their to test negative 72 hours before they board their testnegative 72 hoursbeforetheyboardtheir
Beijing-bound flights and will be tested using
deep nasal and throat swabs when they arrive at
the airport. They will then be shuttled directly to
their hotels, where they are supposed to remain
until they receive word that their test was nega-
tive and that they may leave.
If they are negative, then athletes, coaches,
media and other staff will remain in a pseudo
bubble for their entire stay. They may only use
dedicated transportation and dine in designated
restaurants. Everyone will be tested daily and ex-
pected to isolate immediately if they test posi-
tive; no one can leave isolation until they test
negative twice with 24 hours in between. These
measures aren’t foolproof, however. It’s not clear,
for instance, whether local volunteers and sup-
port staff for the Olympics—bus drivers, foodservice personnel, health care workers performing the test-
ing—will also be required to remain within the bubble or
whether they will be allowed to return to their homes each
evening.evening. “The bigger the bubble, the m“Thebiggerthebubble,themoreore opportunity you opportunityyou
have for somhave for somsomethingething to go wrong,” says Tara Kirk Sell, senior ething to go wrong,” says Tara Kirk Sell, senior togowrong,”saysTaraKirkSell,senior
scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “And scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “And JohnsHopkinsCenterforHealthSecurity.“A n d
itit’s mit’s mit’s mit’s msmore diffiore diffiore diffiore difficult when you have somcult when you have somcult when you have somcult when you have somhenyouhavesomethingething so transmething so transmething so transmething so transmsotransmissibleissible issible issible issible
likelike OmOmicricron.”
There’s a lot at stake for Chinese offiThere’s a lot at stake for Chinese offiThere’salot rChineseofficials,cials, both politically cials, both politically bothpolitically
andand fromand fromfrom a public-health perspective. Their m a public-health perspective. Their mapublic-h rspective.Theirmanagementanagemanagement of ent of of
the pandemthe pandemthepandemicic will inevitably be comic will inevitably be comwilline becomparedpared with the way the pared with the way the withthewaythe
Japanese governmJapanese governmJapanesegovernmentent handled the Sument handled the Sumha heSummermmer Olymer OlymOlympicspics just six pics just six justsix
monthsmmonths ago, during which 865 reported cases were associ-onths ago, during which 865 reported cases were associ-ago,duringwhic eportedcaseswereassoci-
atedated with the Gamated with the GamwiththeGames.es. If mes. If mIfmajor outbreaks occur during the ajor outbreaks occur during the tbreaksoccurduringthe
Olympics,OlymOlympics, it will be very public proof that a zero-tolerance pics, it will be very public proof that a zero-tolerance itwillbeverypu oofthatazero-tolerance
approach,approach, even a dynamevenadynamicic one, is not the mon tthemostost effective way effectiveway
to control transmission.
EvenEven if China’s zero-COVID policy succeeds at keeping Even if China’s zero-COVID policy succeeds at keeping ifChina’szero-COVI cysucceedsatkeeping
OlympicsOlymOlympics visitors safe, this approach has potentially dire pics visitors safe, this approach has potentially dire visitorssafe,thisa hhaspotentiallydire
downsides for the overall population in the long termdownsides for the overall population in the long termdownsidesfortheoverallpop ninthelongterm,, in, inin-
cludingcluding a lower level of imcluding a lower level of imalowerlevelofimmummunity to the virus. Once lock-unity to the virus. Once lock-othevirus.Oncelock-
downs are eventually lifted, people could still be vulnerable downs are eventually lifted, people could still be vulnerable downsareeventuallylifted,p ouldstillbevulnerable
toto infection and—to infection and—infectionand—moremmore concerning—ore concerning—conce —seriousserious disease. Wserious disease. Wdisease.Whilehile hile
87% of the Chinese population is vaccinated, this high rate 87% of the Chinese population is vaccinated, this high rate 87%oftheChinesepopulati accinated,thishighrate
maymmay not confer as may not confer as mnotconferasmuchuch protection as it suggests; recent uch protection as it suggests; recent p onasitsuggests;recent
studies show that one of the mstudies show that one of the mstudiesshowthatoneofth ost comost comcommonlymmonly used Chinese-only used Chinese-usedChinese-
developeddeveloped vaccines did not produce enough antibodies to developed vaccines did not produce enough antibodies to vaccinesdidn duceenoughantibodiesto
neutralizeneutralize the Omneutralize the OmtheOmicronicron variant in lab studies. icron variant in lab studies. inlabstudies.
AsAs a result, somAs a result, somaresult,somee experts predict that reaching herd ime experts predict that reaching herd imex edictthatreachingherdimmu-mmu-u-
nity—nity—nity—inin which min which mwhichmoost of the population is protected, either by ost of the population is protected, either by populationisprotected,eitherby
vaccinationvaccination or by having been infected with COVID-19—vaccination or by having been infected with COVID-19—vaccination or by having been infected with COVID-19—orb beeninfectedwithCOVID-19—willwill will will
be mbe mbe mbemuchuch much much mmore elusive for China than for more elusive for China than for more elusive for China than for mforChinathanformanyany other coun-any other coun-any other coun-othercoun-
tritries. Because Omtries. Because Omicron tends to cause less severe disease in icronicron tends to cause less severe disease in tendstocauselessseverediseasein
vaccinated people, somvaccinated people, somople,somee experts say it could help some experts say it could help somexpertssayitcouldhelpsomee popu-e popu-popu-
lations in which it circulates widely to reach herd imlations in which it circulates widely to reach herd imlations in which it circulates widely to reach herd iminwhichitcirculateswidelytoreachherdimmunitymmmunity unity unity
more quickly, and—hopefully—with less disease and death
than could be expected from previous variants. From that per-
spective, stamping out the virus wherever it flares up might
provide a temporary (though costly and labor- intensive) so-
lution, but not necessarily a long-term or durable one. In a
recent report, the risk-assessment firm Eurasia Group, whose
president writes a column for TIME, warned that “China’s
policy will fail to contain infections, leading to larger out-
breaks, requiring, in turn, more severe lockdowns.”OmicrOn’s stunning ability to spread so quickly and ef-
ficiently will pose obstacles to China that no other Olympics
host country has faced. With such a high level of transmis-
sion, even rigorous testing could miss cases that spark out-
breaks. “Omicron is the ultimate challenge to any program
based on zero cases,” says Michael Osterholm, director of the
CHINATOPIX /A P center for infectious-disease research and policy at the Uni-
RESIDENTS LINE UP FOR COVID-19
TESTING IN CHINA’S TIANJIN
MUNICIPALITY, JUST WEEKS BEFORE
THE BEIJING WINTER OLYMPICS