52 TIME January 31/February 7, 2022
versityversity of Mversity of MofMinnesota.innesota. Studies show that Delta, innesota. Studies show that Delta, Studiesshow Delta,
whichwhich was circulating during the Tokyo Olymwhich was circulating during the Tokyo Olymwascirculatingduringthe Olym---
picspics last sumpics last sumlastsummer,mmer, is twice as contagious as pre-er, is twice as contagious as pre-istwiceascon saspre-
viousvious variants—vious variants—variants—andand Omand OmOmicronicron is up to four timicron is up to four timi ourtimeses es
mmmmoreore infectious than Delta. Wore infectious than Delta. Wore infectious than Delta. WinfectiousthanDelta.While vaccines can hile vaccines can hile vaccines can accinescan
protectprotect against severe disease, they can’t fully protect against severe disease, they can’t fully againstseveredi eycan’tfully
preventprevent people fromprevent people frompeoplefrom getting infected, as the getting infected, as the nfected,asthe
growinggrowing numgrowing numnumberber of breakthrough infections re-ber of breakthrough infections re-oughinfectionsre-
veals. “I’mveals. “I’mveals. “I’mveals. “I’ml “ not sure we will ever get to the point not sure we will ever get to the point not sure we will ever get to the point not sure we will ever get to the point illevergettothepoint
of zero COVID-19,” says Jeremof zero COVID-19,” says Jeremof zero COVID-19,” says Jerem,saysJeremyy Farrar, director y Farrar, director y Farrar, director Farrar,director
ofof the Wof the WWellcomeellcomellcome Trust, a global health research e Trust, a global health research Trust,aglobalhealthresearch
foundation. “I would suspect that SARS-CoV-2
is not going away; when it’s been in this number
of people and beautifully adapted to humanity,
why would it leave? The best hope is that it shifts
over time, as more people develop immunity, to
become the 21st century fl u.”
Other countries that have adopted zero-
COVID strategies, including Australia and New
Zealand, were forced to abandon them over the
summer and fall. The Delta variant crushed these
nations’ eff orts to stay on top of cases, and lock-
downs became socially unbearable and detri-
mental to people’s mental health. In accepting
that it may not be possible to eliminate SARS-
CoV-2, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison
said it was time to “come out of the cave.” His ad-
mission acknowledged that while vaccines pro-
vide protection, they can’t prevent people from
getting infected, so cases are inevitable. The goal
is to prevent people who become infected from
getting seriously ill or needing hospitalization.
The U.S., whether by intention or inaction,
never adopted the fortress mentality, instead
relying on vaccinating as much of the popula-
tion as quickly as possible and, more recently,
encouraging more widespread testing so peo-
ple who are positive can take the proper safety
precautions and avoid public interactions.
While cases have skyrocketed in the U.S. since
Omicron emerged, some models predict that
the combination of immunity from the shots
and from natural infections will ultimately
throw up a formidable enough wall to relegate
signifi cant damage from COVID-19 to out-
breaks among the more vulnerable people, who
are either unvaccinated or have weakened im-
mune systems—at least that’s the hope.
“Countries are going to have to accept a pe-
riod of high transmission in communities,” says
Farrar. “And I think that is the path that China
will ultimately have to go through.”
For now, China’s aggressive approach to
COVID-19 may put it in a strong position to
host the Olympics as safely as can be expected.
But how the virus will ultimately perform there
throughout the Games—and after them—will be
the contest everyone watches most closely.
BEIJING
2022IN SUMMER 2008, THE BEIJING OLYMPICS MARKED A BIG
mmomoment in China’s progress toward global power. Went in China’s progress toward global power. With that ith that
spotlight camspotlight came controversy; activists used the event to high-e controversy; activists used the event to high-
light the light the governmgovernment’s hument’s human- an- rights abuses, but the event’s rights abuses, but the event’s
triumtriumphalist pageantry illustrated the story of China’s phalist pageantry illustrated the story of China’s
rise toward prosperity and prestige for a world audience. rise toward prosperity and prestige for a world audience.
Since then, China’s amSince then, China’s ambitions have taken another leap bitions have taken another leap
forward. Under President Xi Jinping’s leadership over the forward. Under President Xi Jinping’s leadership over the
past decade, China has gone frompast decade, China has gone from pushing for reform pushing for reform of the of the
international systeminternational system to helping guide that reform to helping guide that reform to m to mak-ak-
ing plans for leading it. In recent years, Xi has heralded a ing plans for leading it. In recent years, Xi has heralded a
“new era” that will m“new era” that will move China “closer to center stage” in ove China “closer to center stage” in
global politics. He has presented China as “a new option global politics. He has presented China as “a new option
for other countries,” an alternative to Wfor other countries,” an alternative to Western demestern democracy, ocracy,
and he has outlined what he calls the “Chinese solution” and he has outlined what he calls the “Chinese solution”
for the world’s problemfor the world’s problems. Closer to homs. Closer to home, China’s leaders e, China’s leaders
mmean for their country to tighten control of Hong Kong, to ean for their country to tighten control of Hong Kong, to
pressure Taiwan to stop resisting Beijing’s push for unifi -pressure Taiwan to stop resisting Beijing’s push for unifi -AA P PRREECCAARRI OI OUUS S
SSPPOOTTLLI GI GHHT T
THE OLYMPIC HOST IS FACING STRONG
ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL HEADWINDS
BY IAN BREMMERVIEWPOINTX I E H U A N C H I — X I N H U A /G E T T Y I M A G E S