68 Time January 31/February 7, 2022
number: 2%. Increase investment in eco- friendly
technologies and infrastructure by 2 percentage
points above 2020 levels.
Of course, unlike the 1.5°C figure, which is a
scientifically robust threshold, the 2% figure rep-
resents only a rough guesstimate. It should be un-
derstood as a ballpark figure, helpful to frame the
kind of political project humanity requires. It tells
us that preventing catastrophic climate change is a
totally feasible project, even though it would obvi-
ously cost a lot of money. Since global GDP is now
about $85 trillion USD, 2% currently totals about
$1.7 trillion. It means that to save the environment,
we don’t need to completely derail the economy or
abandon the achievements of modern civilization.
We just need to get our priorities right.Signing a check for 2% of annual global GDP
is far from the whole story. It won’t solve all our
ecological problems, such as oceans
brimming with plastic or the contin-
ued loss of biodiversity. And even to
prevent catastrophic climate change,
we’ll need to make sure that the funds
are invested in the right places and
that the new investments don’t cause
their own negative ecological or so-
cial fallout. If we destroy eco systems
to mine for rare metals that are
needed for the renewables industry,
we might arguably lose as much as
we gain. We will also need to change
some of our behaviors and ways of
thinking, from what we eat to how we travel. None
of that will be easy. But that’s exactly why we have
politicians—their job is to deal with the hard stuff.
Politicians are actually very skilled at shift-
ing 2% of resources from here to there. It is what
they do all the time. The difference between the
policies of right-wing and left-wing parties often
amount to a few percentage points of GDP. When
faced by a major crisis, politicians swiftly shift far
more resources to fight it. For example, in 1945,
the U.S. spent about 36% of its GDP on winning
the Second World War.
During the 2008–09 financial crisis, the U.S.
government spent about 3.5% of GDP to save finan-
cial institutions deemed “too big to fail.” Maybe
humankind should also treat the Amazon rain for-
est as “too big to fail”? Given the current price of
rain- forest land in South America and the size of
the Amazon rain forest, buying the whole of it in
order to protect local forests, biodiversity and
human communities from destructive business
interests would cost about $800 billion, or a one-
off payment of less than 1% of global GDP.
In just the first nine months of 2020,governments around the world announced stim-
ulus measures worth nearly 14% of global GDP to
deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. If citizens press
them hard enough, politicians can do the same to
deal with the ecological crisis. So can investment
banks and pension funds. Pension funds hold
about $56 trillion USD. What’s the point of hav-
ing a pension if you don’t have a future?at preSent, neither buSineSSeS nor govern-
ments are willing to make the additional 2% in-
vestment necessary to prevent catastrophic cli-
mate change. Where does the money go instead?
In 2020, governments expended $2 trillion USD
on their militaries—that’s 2.4% of global GDP.
Every two years, another 2.4% of global GDP is
spent on food that goes to waste. Governments also
spend about $500 billion annually on—wait for
it—direct subsidies for fossil fuels! Which means
that every 3½ years, governments
write a nice fat check for an amount
equivalent to 2% of annual global GDP,
and gift it to the fossil- fuel industry. It
gets worse. When you factor in the so-
cial and environmental costs that the
fossil- fuel industry causes but isn’t
asked to pay for, then the value of these
subsidies actually reaches a staggering
7% of annual global GDP each year.
Now consider tax evasion. The E.U.
estimates that money hidden by the
wealthy in tax havens is worth more
than 10% of global GDP. Every year,
another $1.4 trillion in profits is stashed offshore
by corporations, which is equal to 1.6% of global
GDP. To prevent the apocalypse, we’ll probably
need to impose some new taxes. But why not start
with collecting the old ones?
The money is there. Of course, collecting
taxes, cutting military budgets, stopping food
wastage and slashing subsidies is easier said than
done, especially when faced by some of the most
powerful lobbies in the world. But it doesn’t re-
quire a miracle. It just requires determined
organization.
So we shouldn’t succumb to defeatism. When-
ever someone says, “It’s too late! The apocalypse is
upon us!,” reply, “Nah, we can stop it with just 2%.”
And when COP27 convenes in November 2022 in
Egypt, we should tell the assembled leaders that it
is not enough to make vague future pledges about
1.5°C. We want them to take out their pens and sign
a check for 2% of annual global GDP.Harari is the author of Sapiens, Homo Deus and
Sapiens: A Graphic History. Data sources for this
article can be found on bit. ly/2-percent-moreC L I M A T E
In 1945, the
U.S. spent
about 36%
of its GDP
on winning
the Second
World War