132 Scarcity and Surfeitfrom the central government institutions. Increasingly, because of this bad
blood, productivity of food as well as cash crops has markedly declined (part-
ly as a result as well of the disruptive effects of the civil war since 1993). The
result is that a major threat to the successful implementation of the Arusha
Reconciliation and Peace Agreement (August 2000) is the high incidence of
rural poverty amid a pocket of prosperity.
The development of sustainable agricultural policies with the population's
involvement, government intervention to correct imperfect market structures,
and a clear environmental management corpus of law and practices must be
undertaken. This must be so if only for the reason that they constitute the
only viable route to stemming the rapid deterioration of the both the struc-
ture and condition of the natural environment in Burundi, a critical structur-
al fuel in the country's civil war.
The observations of this section are buttressed by the following case study,
which seeks to cast state management of an economically strategic cash crop,
coffee, within the broader conflict.
Coffee as a Source of Conflict
This section looks at the coffee subsector in Burundi. There are a number of
reasons for this focus. Firstly, the economy of Burundi, like that of many
developing countries, is based on agricultural production. Secondly, and
related to the first consideration, the subsector offers the classical arena for
rent seeking by a state elite with minimal external scrutiny. Thirdly, coffee
constitutes more than 80% of Burundi's foreign exchange earnings. Farming
coffee is labour intensive and can only continue if benefits are sufficient to
the producers. In the absence of the first incentive, some degree of coercion,
however subtle, is required for continued production. The state-controlled
marketing and exporting agencies regulate the subsector and set producer
prices with only token input of the farmers, who have no meaningful say in
decisions.
Burundi is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. The
country is also burdened with a rapidly growing population. It is landlocked
and small, with an estimated population of six million inhabitants. Logically,
competition for scarce land is a potential conflict flashpoint. But perhaps
more important is the competition between food and cash crops, in this case
coffee.
The ebb and flow of the conflict largely determines the demographic pat-
terns in Burundi. Following the outbreak of the latest cycle of violence, the
urban centres, especially Bujumbura, have become isolated 'Tutsistans',
whereas the countryside has largely been emptied of its predominantly
Hutu inhabitants. The rural population of Bujumbura, the scene of military