Spilling Blood over Water?
The Case of Ethiopia
Fiona Flintan and lmeru JamrafIntroduction
"The wars of the next century will be about water"
Ismail Serageldin, Vice-president of the World Bank'The main conflicts in Africa during the next 25 years could be over the most pre-
cious of commodities - water. The Nile River, with part of its source in Ethiopia,
is considered to be a likely flashpoint for such conflict^.^ Areas of 'water sms'
are likely to see increased competition as populations grow and the available
fresh water per capita decreases? Reconciliation is complex because many large
rivers such as the Nile are trans-boundary. Indeed, as Wolf confirms, "water
ignores political boundaries, evades institutional classification and eludes legal
generalisations." In addition, the most recent legal document on international
waters, the 1997 Convention on Non-Navigational Uses of International
Watercourses, is vague and sometimes contradictory. International agencies his-
torically deal with international water resource disputes to only a limited extent.
However, despite the potential for conflict over water, there is little evi-
dence that water has ewer been the cause of international warfare. War over
water is neither strategically rational, hydrographically effective, nor eco-
nomicallv viable. Indeed. not onlv would such conflict be unlikelv from a
strategic point of view, but countries, regions and communities tend to share
a strong interest in an orderly development of river systems, frame water
development and use plans cooperatively. For example, despite their often
adverse environmental impacts, dams can reduce seasonal variability of river
flow for ail connected nations. Hydropower generated in one country can be
exchanged regionally and water-based transportation tends to be inexpensive
and creates strong ties across countries and regions.
Though international wars over water have not occurred, there is evidence
to suggest that the lack of water in certain contexts has led to localised polit-
ical instability and violence. For example, some analysts suggest that conflict
between herders and farmers is in~reasing.~ Indeed, farmer-herder conflict
over water is documented in Malis, the Ivory Coast6, and Burkina Faso.