286 Scarcity and Surfeit
limits the ability to add value to resources, with the exception of very valu-
able resources such as gold and ivory.
Several regional boundaries are yet to be firmly decided and demarcated.
This includes the Somali region boundaries bordering both Afar and Borana.161
A referendum is proposed to decide where the boundaries will be demarcated.
It is an extremely contentious issue and whatever the decision is, it is likely
that conflict will continue. This is particularly the case for the Somali-Afar bor-
der, over which violent conflict continues, as described earlier in this chapter.
The government may decide to take the boundary along the Awash-Asseb
road, dividing the towns along the route between the different groups.
However, the Afar will never accept this, as their original lands stretched
much further to the east. It remains to be seen whether the government will
prioritise its relationship with the government in neighbouring Djibouti and
its process for a united Ethiopian state (that includes the Somali region) over
the interests of the Afar. In fact, some suggest that keeping the current
boundary with 'dotted lines' rather then 'solid lines' as boundaries, so allow-
ing some room for flexibility and manoeuvring between the regions is a bet-
ter alternative to a hard boundary. Up to now, a more flexible boundary has
successfully averted more intense conflict that may arise when firm demar-
cation of the boundary is decided.162
It is encouraging that pastoralists, for example, now have greater opportu-
nities to participate in national political and economic life. Certainly many
will benefit from recognition (though partial) of their cultural rights and the
development opportunities made possible by development funds given by the
federal government to regional states. However, a large number of risks
remain, including for renewed conflict. For instance, the use of underground
water and rivers for irrigation is likely to worsen the scarcity of available pas-
ture and surface water for grazing livestock.
Continuing sedentarisation and urbanisation are likely to further disrupt cus-
tomary grazing patterns, while increasing the overall demand for livestock.
Uneven distribution of development benefits between different groups in
regional states will fuel additional conflicts. The new bureaucracy accompany-
ing regionalisation may affect traditional authority and administration, includ-
ing its composition and how effectively it maintains social control. One observ-
er notes that "conflict is to be anticipated especially in leadership and 1aw",l6j
Finally, cross-border initiatives may become increasingly difficult as regional
identities and protectionism of regional interests are pursued more fervently.
Continued Emphasis on Large-scale Production and Unsuitable
Intervention
Large-scale irrigation has been the central focus of formal development in the
pastoralist inhabited Awash River Basin since the late 1950s. Since the 1970s