Contemporary Conflict Analysis in Perspective 19
"... once violent destruction of the enemy and its valued resources
comes to define a relationship, the rules of the game or the rules of
'everyday life' change. Behaviour that is unacceptable in peacetime
becomes legitimate in times of war. Specifically killing, torture, rape,
mass expulsions, ethnic cleansing and the creation of concentration
camps are explained by such terms which essentially state that while
war goes on we must expect such occurrences, or simply not be sur-
prised by them."lWThis distinction is critical in the sense that over time 'conflict-as-process' may
be more important than 'conflict-as-startup conditions: Therefore, it is not
sufficient to statically identify operating variables worth looking at (what
Sandole termed conflict-as-startup conditions) but also, and perhaps equally
crucial, to identify the dynamic processes that may overtake these static star-
up conditions (conflict-as-process).uo That the identification of a conflict's
'start-up conditions' is critical is evidenced by the gradual incorporation into
mainstream conflict analysis of what are variously termed 'underlying caus-
es'", 'structural dimensions or sources of latent/open confli~t'~~, 'structural
component^'"^ and 'structural factors or root causes' as will be seen below.".'
This has been particularly the case in the field of conflict early-warning sys-
tems, confirming our assertion that single-cause explanations of violent con-
flict and war should be av~ided."~ In fact, contemporary conflict analysis has
found that conflicts tend to develop in environments characterised by struc-
tural factors, which "form the pre-conditions of crisis situations, such as sys-
temic political exclusion, shifts in demographic balance, ennenched econom-
ic inequities, economic decline and ecological deteri~ration"."~
If, following Waltz, Scott, Levy and Sandole, explanations located at dif-
ferent levels should be added together and assigned relative weights in rela-
tion to any given analysis (bearing in mind that the relative weight of any
level is strongly related to the particular developmental phase of any paric-
ular armed conflict), the choice of an initial analytical level seems to be relat-
ed primarily with whether that particular level, in the words of Buzan, tells
the analyst more about any given event or phenomenon.'" More imponant-
ly, while the analyst may start from one of the levels identified, it is crucial
to take into account all other levels. This is what Waltz meant when he said
that "the partial quality of each image sets up a tension that drives one
toward inclusion of the others"
We will now turn to 'new wars', 'wan of the third kind', 'intra-state wan'.
'societal wars' and 'non-international wars: We have seen that acton in these
conflicts range from conventional armies to para-military units, local war-
lords, mercenary groups and even criminal gangs. As was previously high-
lighted, in order to understand these conflicts, analysts are increasingly turn-
ing to the state level, in particular to the groups in conflict and their claims.