Contemporary Conflict Analysis in Perspective 3 1resources in the region is uneven: pockets of comparatively abundant natu-
ral resources along watercourses and in higher elevations are embedded in a
highly stressed overall ecological region where natural resource scarcity is
common. Interacting groups of livestock herders in the Horn of Africa have
adapted to persistent limitations through frequent movements between dif-
ferent macro-ecological zones, and through reciprocal resource sharing agree
ments between different groups. However, increasing ecological scarcity and
the expansion of agricultural production into key resource environments
undermines the sustainability of pastoralist resource use systems in the Horn.
The ecological structure of land and natural resources is conditioned to a
large degree by uncertain variations in rainfall, cloud cover and temperature.
Stress and limitation are common features of environments in Africa, and,
furthermore, in many cases drive ecological systems. Consequently, an
increase or decrease in the supply or quality of critical natural resources over
short periods is common.
The second pan of Chapter 5 on Sudan, and Chapter 6 on Ethiopia, exam-
ines how access to and control over the allocation of Nile waters has been a
source of conflict between the Nile Basin countries. Egypt and Sudan were
allocated the entire flow of the Nile under the Nile Waters Agreement of 1959.
The agreement excluded upstream riparian states, including Ethiopia. Under
the agreement, changes in the allocation of water rights are permissible only
in cases where Sudan and Egypt consent. Official Ethiopian policy does not
recognise earlier agreements, which the government of Ethiopia claims do
not affect its rights to use Nile waters within its territory to pursue its own
development objectives. At the same time, Egypt and Sudan policy opposes
any changes to the allocation of water rights as they currently stand.
Civil war in Sudan features strongly in basin-level competition to control
Nile waters as well. Egypt, in particular, is deeply concerned at the possible
implications for existing allocations of Nile waters were south Sudan to gain
independence. The allocation of Nile waters is an important underlying issue
complicating ongoing peace negotiations for Sudan, in which both the gov-
ernments of Egypt and Sudan are actively participating.
Ethiopia's predicament is analysed in detail by Fiona Flintan and lmeru
Tamrat in Chapter 6. They trace cycles of drought and famine that have
plagued Ethiopia for many decades, leading to recurrent humanitarian crises.
They predict that food insecurity will worsen in Ethiopia as the population
expands. This concem underlies the government of Ethiopia's claim to make
better use of their relatively abundant access to the Nile waters. The expan-
sion of irrigated agriculture in the Ethiopian plateau is a critical part of
Ethiopia's agricultural policy in order to increase food production to meet
growing needs. This chapter examines the implications of this policy, both
for regional politics in the Horn of Africa, and for local pastoralist communi-
ties displaced from the Awash Valley by such developments.