Contemporary Conflict Analysis in Penperlive 4 1
76 P le Billon, The political economy of resource wars, Cillier el al (eds), op cit,
p 23. So-called scarcity-of-resources approaches consider poverty as a funda-
mental cause of contemporary conflict. Global and local economic inequality is
at a high point when for example one knows that the world's 50 poorest nations
(20% of the world's entire population) account for less than 2% of global income
and there is stagnation and protracted decline in income due to years of stagnant
economic growth. Furthermore. soil impoverishment, land scarcity and overuse.
overpopulation and deforestation also contribute as potential causes of conflict.
77 M T Klare, The new geography of conflict, Foreign Affairs, May/ June 2001, p 52.
This author adds that "Just as a map showing the world's tectonic faults is a use-
ful guide to likely earth-quake zones, viewing the international system in terms of
unsettled resource deposits - contested oil and gas fields, shared water systems.
embattled diamond mines - provides a guide to likely conflict zones in the twen-
ty-first century ... A better analysis of stresses in the new international system,
and a better predictor of conflict, would view international relations lhrough the
lens of the world's contested resources and focus on those areas where conflict is
likely to erupt over access to or the possession of vital materials" (pp 52-53).
78 Cilliers, op cit, p 2.
79 In this regard, the words of Chris Mitchell come to mind: "if certain conflicts
within a society are regarded as stemming from ineradicable human qualities
such as greed or envy then they are defined as sins, crimes or social deviance,
and are 'managed' by coercion or punishment and the imposition of law-and-
order policies through deterrent police forces': C R Mitchell, The structure of
international conflict, The MacMillan Press Ltd. 1981, p 33.
80 Jabri, op cit, p 65.
81 Collier & Hoeffler, Greed and gtievance in civil war. op cir. < http://www.worldbank.
org/research/conflict/papers/greedandgrievance.htm >
82 On this occasion the authors actually say that "the assumption that rebellions are
motivated by greed is merely a special case of the focus upon constraints" in that
"an alternative constraints-based theory is that of universal grievance: all coun-
tries might have groups with a sufficiently strong sense of grievance to wish to
launch a rebellion". Collier & Hoeffler, op cit, p 3.
83 There are important differences in both a constraints-based theory and a prefer-
ences-based theory of conflict. For example, if we take the universal grievance
approach (defined here as a constraint) one will inevitably conclude that the
extortion of primary commodity exports offers the best way for rebel organisa-
tions to grow to achieve the size and scale they need to undertake a civil war.
Extortion than becomes a vehicle, a means to an end. On the other hand, if we
take the 'literal greed interpretation', "the extortion of primary commodity
exports will occur where it is profitable" and "the organisations which perpetrate
this extortion will need to take the form of a rebellion". Ibid.
84 Ibid.
85 Please note that the authors are still using Singer and Small's 1982 definition of
civil war referred to above. In this respect see J D Singer and M Small, Reson to
nrms:International andcivil wars: 18161980, Sage, Beverly Hills, 1982. And also
J D Singer and M Small, Correlates of war project: International and civil war