The Economist - USA (2022-01-29)

38 TheAmericas TheEconomistJanuary29th 2022

mostoftheblame.Thepotentialcostsof

failednegotiationstotheimfhavefurther

contributedto thegovernment’srecalci­

trance. Becausethe fundstands to lose

moneyandface,anyattempttodrivea

hard bargain will be less credible, the

thinkinggoes.

Althoughthecurrentnegotiationsare

important,Argentina’seconomicillspre­

datetheloanin2018.Populistpoliticians

havelongmeddledinthemarkets.After

thepriceofmeatroselastyearwithinfla­

tion,beefexportswerebanned.Whenthe

rulingcoalitionlosta primaryelectionin

September,thegovernmentslappedprice

controls on more than 1,400 products,

fromshavingcreamtocatfood.Itsbudgets

aredistortedbysopstospecialinterests.

Publicsectoremploymenthasballooned

overthepastdecadewhiletheprivatesec­

torhasshrunk.Regressiveutilitysubsidies

amountto1.5%ofgdpforelectricityalone.

The imf cannot simply demand re­

formstoaddresssuchproblems.Themore

itasksofArgentina,thelessconfidentit

canfeelthatconditionswillbemet.How­

ever,thefundseemstohaveinsistedonan

improvementin thefiscaloutlook.Last

year’seconomicreboundhelpedtoshrink

Argentina’sprimarybudgetdeficit(ie,be­

foreinterestcosts)frommorethan6%of

gdpin 2020 downto3%.

MartínGuzmán,theeconomyminister,

insiststhatfurtherreductionsshouldoc­

curata slowpace,withtheprimarydeficit

closedby2027.That istooslowforthe

fund’stastes,andinvolvestoomanyyears

ofgovernmentspendingfinancedbythe

printingpresses.

Ontopofthis,thepoliticalclassap­

pearstoobusysquabblingtodealwithbig­

gerissues.Thegovernmenthasfailedto

uniteinnegotiations.MrGuzmánseems

tospendmoretimetryingtoconvincethe

powerfulPeronistvice­president,Cristina

FernándezdeKirchner,oftheneedfora

dealthanwritingacredibleprogramme.

OnJanuary18thMsKirchnerwroteonher

websitethatthe“Macristapandemic”(ie,

theruleofMrMacri)hadbeenworsethan

covid­19.SheblamesthePeronists’lossin

recentmid­terms—theworstdefeatin 40

years—onspendingcuts.Thetemptation

tospendaheadofnextyear’spresidential

electioncouldmeanthatevenifa dealis

signed,it couldquicklyveerofftrack.

Meanwhilethecentre­rightopposition,

whoseleadersarefightingoverwhowillbe

thepresidentialcandidate,haverefusedto

meetMrGuzmán,arguingthathehasn’t

presenteda credibleeconomicplan.Even

iftheywinthepresidentialrace,itisnot

cleartheywouldmakeseriouschanges.Fe­

dericoSturzenegger,a formercentral­bank

chief,notesthatthethreenon­Peronistad­

ministrations that have been in power

sincethereturntodemocracyin 1983 have

failedtosticktofiscaldisciplineorreinin

interestgroups.

Withdeadlines looming,the govern­

mentisflailing.OnJanuary26thClarín, an

Argentine newspaper, reported that the

governmenthadwarnedthatitmaymiss

twopaymentstotheimf, dueonJanuary

28thandFebruary1st,totalling$1.1bn.It

hasreportedlyaskedChinaforanincrease

inthesizeofa standingarrangementwith

theChinesegovernment,bywhichArgen­

tinaswapsitscurrencyforanequivalent

amountofyuan—agloballyacceptedre­

serve currency—thus bolstering its for­

eign­exchange reserves.MrFernándezis

duetovisitBeijinginFebruary.

Suchshenanigansarenosubstitutefor

fiscalreform.Achievinga budgetbalance

ina difficultpost­pandemicenvironment

willnotbeeasy.Highinflationisalready

eroding the real value of some social

spending.Anewimfdealwithouta com­

mitmenttoreformandnear­termbudget

balance would buy a little time. But it

wouldnotdomuchtoboostgrowthorto

wintheconfidenceofinvestors.

Fallinginto arrearswiththe imf, by

contrast, would leave Argentinacut off

fromothermultilaterallenders,who are

oneofitsfewremainingsourcesofcredit.

Intheworst­casescenario,a defaultcould

triggera panicsimilarto2001.Theoutlook

isgrim.Andcarriesa whiffofdéjàvu. n

Toughtimesahead

Argentina,scheduleofdebtrepaymentstoIMF

$bn

Source:IMF

1 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

2022 23 2

Principal Interestandcharges

A long decline

Argentina, net government deficit, % of GDP

Sources: IMF; Ministry of Economy *Estimate

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

21*20181614122010

Primary Interest

BrazilianPortuguese

Talk talk

T

he song,  a  hit  at  Brazil’s  carnival  in

2014, starts like any other. A man won­

ders  whether  a  woman  will  still  love  him

after he loses his job, his house and his car.

But then the chorus gets weird. If the wom­

an stays, the singer belts over a thumping

drum,  it  is  because  she  likes  his  “lepo  le­

po”. Most Brazilians had no idea what “lepo

lepo” meant. 

A  talk­show  host  put  the  question  to

strangers on the street. “I use it a lot, but I

don’t know,” one man admitted. Some peo­

ple guessed that it was slang for penis (it is

actually slang for sex or sexual prowess). It

turned out that the phrase was unfamiliar

outside  Bahia,  the  north­eastern  state

where Psirico, the band, is from. 

No matter. Its construction, a loose ex­

ample of what linguists call reduplication,

a way of forming words in which an exist­

ing word or part of a word gets repeated, is

common in Brazilian Portuguese. “We play

around  with  words,  and  end  up  making

new  ones,”  says  Márcio  Victor,  the  lead

singer of Psirico.

In  most  cases,  the  third­person  singu­

lar  form  of  a  verb  is  repeated  to  form  a

noun with a related meaning. For example,

“empurra”  (she  pushes)  becomes  “empur­

ra­empurra”  (jostling  crowd,  or  moshpit).

“Lambe”  (he  licks)  becomes  “lambe­

lambe” (poster). In other cases, the last syl­

lable of a noun is replicated to add intensi­

ty.  “Choro”  (crying)  becomes  “chororô”

(cry­fest or a crybaby).

In  many  languages  reduplication  is

used  to  form  plurals  (in  Indonesian,  “ru­

mah” means house; “rumah­rumah” hous­

es).  In  spoken  English,  it  often  serves  as

clarification  or  to  intensify  the  meaning.

The origins of reduplication in Portuguese

are hard to pin down. According to a paper

in  2019  by  Antonia  Vieira,  a  Brazilian  lin­

guist, the first Portuguese dictionary, com­

piled  by  a  priest  in  the  1700s,  contains  44

examples. Many, however, are what Gabri­

el  Araújo  of  the  University  of  São  Paulo

calls “pseudo­reduplication”, in which the

base  that  is  doubled  is  an  onomatopoeic

sound  rather  than  a  word  with  meaning,

resulting in words like “pi­pi”, birdcall, and

“zum­zum”, the buzz of mosquitoes. 

In  Brazilian  Portuguese,  reduplication

appears to have produced more, and more

varied,  words  than  its  European  counter­

part.  In  addition  to  the  onomatopoeia  of

everyday speech, Brazilians use reduplica­

tion when talking to children (“au­au” has

S ÃO PAULO

What a rare word for “sex” reveals

about a language