The Economist - USA (2022-01-29)

42 MiddleEast&Africa TheEconomistJanuary29th 2022

severalWesterncountriesto threatento

withdrawtheirforces.EvenifBurkinaFa­

so’sputschistsdonotfalloutsospectacu­

larlywiththeWest,relationsareboundto

becomemorefraught.

The region’s long­suffering citizens

seemtobelosingfaithindemocracy.In

BurkinaFasopeopleroseupin 2014 tokick

outBlaiseCompaoré,whohadfirsttaken

powerina coup 27 yearsearlier.Shortlybe­

forethisjust24%toldpollstersfromAfro­

barometerthattheyapprovedofthearmy

runningthecountry.Yetby 2018 sentiment

hadswungsharply:almost50%ofBurki­

nabéssupported militaryrule.Afterthe

coup on January 23rd people jubilantly

dancedanddrummedinthecapital.Some

wavedRussianflagsorburnedtheFrench

one.Thenewlotcan’tbeworsethanthe

oustedpresident,said Aliou Ouedraogo,

oneofthosecelebrating.

Mr Kaboré seems to have been well

awareoftheriskofa coup.BurkinaFaso

hassufferedeightsuccessfulputschesand

manymoreattemptedonessinceitgained

independencefromFrancein1960.InDe­

cemberhereshuffledhiscabinetandputa

generalinchargeofthedefenceministry,

replacinga civilian.OnJanuary11ththese­

curityforcesarrestedeightsoldiersforal­

legedlyplottingagainstthegovernment,

amongthemanofficersaidtohavetrained

withColonelDamiba.

Insecurityunderpinsthelatestputsch.

In June last year jihadists slaughtered

morethan 100 peopleinSolhan,a villagein

thenorth (see map). In Novemberthey

killed 49 policeofficersandfourcivilians

near Inata,another northerntown. The

soldierstherehadrunoutoffoodandhad

beenforcedtocommandeerlivestock,ac­

cordingtoa memotheysenttheirsupe­

riors.MrKaboréboastedofhavingbumped

upthesecuritybudgetbutlittleextragear

seemedtomakeittothefrontlines.After

theslaughterinInataangryprotestersral­

liedinthecapitalagainstthegovernment

andFrenchforces.

Thecoup’smainbeneficiariesmaywell

be thejihadists.The junta willhave its

handsfullconsolidatingpowerinthecap­

italandseeingoffthepossibilityofa coun­

ter­coup.Thatmayleavea vacuuminthe

countrysideforjihadiststofill.

InMalithesoldiersnowrunningthe

government have not done abetter job

thanciviliansatmaintainingsecurity.In

fact,thearmy’swithdrawalfromembat­

tledtownsandbaseshasacceleratedsince

the coups there, says Héni Nsaibia of

Menastream,a consultancy.

TheAfricanUnionandtheEconomic

Community ofWestAfricanStates(eco-

was), a regionalbloc,havecondemnedthe

coupinBurkinaFasoandcalledforthere­

leaseofMrKaboré.Somemayseeironyin

its demand: threeof ecowas’s 15 mem­

bers—Mali,GuineaandBurkinaFaso—are

nowledbymenwithguns.Othermembers

maybemoreworriedaboutthespreadof

insurgentsthanaboutdemocraticniceties.

Jihadists are steadily moving south

fromBurkinaFasointoIvoryCoastandBe­

nin, wherethenumberofattacksisin­

creasing.Stoppingthemwillrequirenot

justbettergovernancebutalsomoreco­

operationbetweencountriesintheregion,

theirarmedforcesandpoliticians,andbe­

tweenlocalarmiesandtheirforeignback­

ers.Thathasneverlookedmoreelusive.n

SAHEL

BURKINAFASO

GHANA

IVORYCOAST

BENIN

NIGER

MALI

TOGO

Ouagadougou

Inata

Solhan

SAHEL

Source:ACLED 5Deaths^25

Violenteventsinvolvingjihadistgroups

Jan1st2021-Jan2th 2022

50

150 km

EmmanuelTumusiime-Mutebile

Market preacher

S

ometimes changing an economy

starts with a metaphor. In 1992 Emman­

uel Tumusiime­Mutebile, the top civil ser­

vant  in  Uganda’s  financeministry,  began

comparing inflation to indiscipline in the

army.  He  knew  that  would  resonate  with

Yoweri  Museveni,  a  rebel  who  had  fought

his way to power six years earlier. Soon the

president  was  declaring  that  “inflation  is

indiscipline.”  The  slogan  was  pinned  on

office walls and Mr Mutebile was given a li­

cence to slash spending. Inflation fell from

200% to single digits in a few months.

The  formidable  Mr  Mutebile  would

spend another decade at the ministry, and

two more at the helm of the Bank of Ugan­

da. When he died on January 23rd, aged 72,

he  was  the  longest­serving  central  bank

governor in Africa. But his most enduring

legacy  is  those  frenetic  years  in  the  1990s

when he pushed his country decisively to­

wards  the  free  market.  It  was  a  time  of

fraught,  painful  change  across  the  conti­

nent, often spurred by the World Bank and

imf.  As  the  career  of  Mr  Mutebile  shows,

reform  went  furthest  when  pushed  by  lo­

cals who actually believed in it.

Mr  Mutebile  was  used  to  telling  presi­

dents  what  they  didn’t  want  to  hear.  As  a

student he stood up in a meeting to tell Idi

Amin,  a  capricious  despot,  that  it  was

wrong to expel Ugandan Asians. Mr Mute­

bile  subsequently  fled  the  country—dis­

guised, the story goes, as an Asian refugee.

For most of the 1970s he studied and taught

economics in Britain and Tanzania.

The collapse of the economy back home

gave  him  an  obsession  with  macroeco­

nomic stability. He spoke about it at every

meeting;  his  colleagues  said  he  was

“preaching the gospel”. In the 1990s, when

he had more power than any of the minis­

ters  above  him,  Uganda  took  an  axe  to

spending,  cut  tariffs,  sold  state­owned

firms  and  unified  parallel  exchange  rates.

Other  African  countries  made  similar  re­

forms, but rarely with such conviction. Mr

Mutebile’s admirers were in awe of his te­

nacity. Abebe Aemro Selassie, the director

of the imf’s African Department, describes

him  as  a  “lion  of  a  policymaker”  who  laid

the ground for rapid gdpgrowth.

Not  everyone  was  so  enamoured.  Crit­

ics  said  Mr  Mutebile  was  too  close  to  the

authoritarian regime he served. In 2011, de­

spite  his  grumbling,  the  central  bank

helped  finance  an  election­related  spend­

ing  splurge.  Inflation  subsequently

jumped  (see  chart),  and  security  forces

shot  protesters  in  the  streets.  There  were

questions, too, about the bank handing ov­

er $741m to buy Russian fighter jets.

But  the  biggest  challenge  was  one  that

Mr Mutebile himself acknowledged: Ugan­

da’s  vaunted  stability  had  not  sparked  in­

dustrialisation  or  created  enough  jobs.

That  is  a  problem  in  much  of  Africa,  and

younger  policymakers  are  cautiously  re­

visiting  ideas  of  a  more  interventionist

state. They can afford to do so only because

“the basics have been handled,” argues Da­

moni  Kitabire,  an  economist  who  worked

alongside  Mr  Mutebile  inthe1990s.  The

heyday  of  the  free­market generation  is

passing. Its legacy runs deep.n

K AMPALA

A Ugandan economist who changed

his country has died

Flattening the curve

Uganda, consumer prices

% change on a year earlier

Source: IMF *Estimate

250

200

150

100

50

0

-50

21*151005200095901985