The Economist - USA (2022-01-29)

The Economist January 29th 2022 Middle East & Africa 43

ThewarinYemen

UAVs over the UAE

A

ftersevenyearsoffightinginYemen,
theroarandthumpofmissileinter­
ceptorsisa familiarsoundinSaudiArabia.
Butit wasa shockforresidentsoftheUnit­
edArabEmirates(uae).EarlyonJanuary
24ththeuaesaidit hadshotdowna pairof
ballisticmissilesfiredfromYemen.Videos
posted on social media captured loud
boomsoverAbuDhabi,thecapital.
The Houthis,anIranian­backedmili­
tantgroupthatcontrols partofYemen,
claimed responsibility. Since 2015 they
havebeenfightinga coalitionledbySaudi
Arabia,andincludingtheuae, whichin­
vadedYementodeposethem.Aweekbe­
fore the missile attack, the Houthis
launchedadroneattack onAbuDhabi’s
airportandanindustrialarea.Threework­
ersfromIndiaandPakistanwerekilled.
Thatattacktriggereda ferociouswave
ofSaudiandEmiratiairstrikesinYemen,
manyofwhichkilledcivilians.Thedeadli­
est,onJanuary21st,hita prisoninSaada,a
northerncity.MédecinsSansFrontières,a
medicalcharitywithemployeesthere,said
atleast 82 peoplewerekilled(pictured).A
separatestrikeona telecomsfacilityinHo­
deidadisconnectedYemenfromtheinter­
netforfourdays.
Houthiattackshavebecomecommon
inSaudiArabia,whichshootsdownmis­
silesordronesalmosteveryweek.Thiswas
thefirsttimetheHouthishadsuccessfully
targetedtheuae. Itreflectstheirfuryatan
abruptbattlefieldreversalinYemen,engi­
neeredbytheEmiratis.Anditpresentsthe
uaewitha difficultchoice:tobackoff,al­
lowingtheHouthistocaptureanimpor­
tantcity,ortoriskmoreattacksthatcould
inflictrealdamageonitseconomy.
Formorethana yearthemainfrontline
inYemenhasbeenaroundthecityofMa­
rib,120km(75miles)eastofSana’a,thecap­
ital.Itishometo3mpeople,one­thirdof
themdisplacedfromotherregions,andto
Yemen’slargestoilandgasreserves.The
Houthishavethrownwavesoffightersat
the city, including children. Casualties
havebeenhorrific,buttheyhaveslowly
worndownthecity’sdefenders.
Theuaehadlittletodowiththis.In
2019 itwithdrewmostofitstroopsfroma
warithadcometoseeasa quagmire.Emi­
ratishadfoughtlargelyinsouthYemen,
whichwasanindependentcountryuntil
1990 andretainsa secessioniststreak.The
Houthis havelittle supportthere. Fora
timeitseemedtheEmiratiswerepursuing

defactopartition:theywouldmaintain  a

sphereofinfluenceinthesouth,while the

Saudi­backed and internationally recog­

nised government struggled against  the

Houthisinthenorth.

Lastyear,however,theHouthisinvaded

Shabwa, an energy­rich southern prov­

ince.WithMaribteeteringandthesouth

underthreat,thecoalitionchangedtactics.

OnDecember25thSaudiArabiaagreed  to

sackthegovernorofShabwa,a controver­

sialfigureaffiliatedwithIslah,anIslamist

partydislikedbytheEmiratis.Hisreplace­

ment,atribalfigure,hasgoodrelations

withtheuae(wherehelivedforyears).

TheGiantsBrigades,a militiabacked by

theuae, thenmovedthousandsofitsfight­

ersfromtheRedSeacoasttoShabwa. Their

gainswereswift:theypushedtheHouthis

outofShabwaandwentontoseizebits of

Maribprovinceaswell.Battlefieldvicto­

riesinYemenarenotalwaysdurable. Still,

theHouthishavesuffereda bigsetback in

thepastfewweeks.Insteadofa seemingly

inexorablemarchtoseizeMarib,they now

facea newthreatontheirsouthernflank.

TheattacksonAbuDhabiwerean ulti­

matumtotheuae: haltyouradvance  or

facefurtherbombardment. Thephysical

danger is modest. Houthi missiles  and

dronescannotcarrybigpayloads,and the

uaehasadvancedairdefences—bolstered

byAmerica,whichhasthousandsoftroops

atal­Dhafra,anairbasesouthofAbuDhabi

(theyfiredtheirownair­defencesystems

attheHouthimissilesonJanuary24th).

The reputational risk is far greater. The

uaemarkets  itself  as  an  oasis  of  stability,

seemingly  immune  to  the  region’s  con­

flicts, even as it has pursued an aggressive

foreign  policy  that  embroiled  it  in  them.

Investors  view  it  as  a  safe  place  to  start  a

business or buy property. The 22m tourists

who  visited  in  2019  had  little  to  worry

about beyond sunburn or some bad oysters

at  brunch.  Continued  attacks  would  jeop­

ardise that image.

They  could  also  complicate  the  uae’s

recent efforts at rapprochement with Iran.

Tahnoun  bin  Zayed,  the  national  security

adviser, visited Tehran in December. Ebra­

him Raisi, Iran’s president, has been invit­

ed  to  visit  Abu  Dhabi.  The  uae hoped

friendlier  ties  would  allow  it  to  avoid  ex­

actly these sorts of attacks. The Houthis are

not  fully  an  Iranian  proxy—they  often  act

independently. But the attacks on the uae

were  made  possible  by  Iranian  support.

The drones and missiles aimed at Abu Dha­

bi were probably based on Iranian designs.

Now  the  uaemust  decide  whether  to

press  forward  or  pull  back  in  Yemen.  It

could reach a deal with the Houthis to keep

the Giants Brigades in Shabwa as a defen­

sive force. If Marib falls, however, Shabwa

would  become  more  vulnerable.  The

Houthis  could  also  force  the  uae’s  hand.

They have threatened strikes on Dubai, the

uae’s business and tourism hub; on Janu­

ary 25th a spokesman for the group warned

visitors to avoid Expo 2020, the world’s fair

that opened in October.

Such attacks would be a serious escala­

tion,  which  would  probably  draw  the  uae

deeper  into  the  war—and  perhaps  also

America, which last year ended support for

“offensive operations” by the coalition. All

of this, then, could backfire on the Houth­

is.  They  benefited  from  the  withdrawal  of

the uae, with the coalition’s most capable

army.  Trying  to  keep  the  Emiratis  out,the

Houthis could instead pull them back in.n

D UBAI

Strikes on the United Arab Emirates may backfire on the Houthi rebels

No end to the suffering in Yemen