The Economist - USA (2022-01-29)

46 Asia TheEconomistJanuary29th 2022

Butwhenthearmycrackeddownonthe

protestmovementthataroseinopposition

tothecoup,soldiersturnedtheirgunson

minoritiesandBamarsalike.Andwhenre­

sistanceshowednosignofebbing,thear­

my beganrazing towns andmassacring

protesters.Thejunta’sforceshavekilled

nearly1,500civilianssincethecoup,ac­

cordingtotheAssistanceAssociationfor

PoliticalPrisoners,a charitybasedinThai­

land.“Youraveragenldfannowismuch

moregenuinelysympathetictowhateth­

nicpeoplehavegonethrough,”saysKim

Jolliffe, an analyst who specialises in

Myanmar’sethnicpolitics.

Thisshift is evident inpolitics, too.

Afterthecoup,deposedlawmakersfrom

the nld formed a shadow government

called the National Unity Government

(nug). Theypromisedthatitwouldbedif­

ferent,instyleandsubstance,fromtheone

thathadjustbeenousted.MsSuuKyiwas

unpopular with ethnic minorities, who

weredisappointedwhenshefailedtode­

volvepower fromthehighly centralised

state.SomeBamarpoliticiansweredisillu­

sioned,too,sincesheranherpartyasan

authoritarian,refusingtodelegatebeyond

a smallcircleofgeriatricacolytes.

Thenughas,bycontrast,takenpainsto

showthatitislisteningtoitscritics.Itis

stuffedwithyoungpeopleandethnicmi­

norities,andsaysitmakesdecisions by

consensus. Ithas symbolically repealed

theconstitution,whichwasenactedbya

previousjuntain2008,andpromisedto

forgea federalstateandtograntRohingyas

citizenship.Thisconciliatorytoneandin­

clusiveapproachmark“aneweraofpoli­

tics”,saysMawHtunAung,a 37­year­old

activistofKachinethnicitywhoisa deputy

ministerinthenug.

Thesechangesarebornofpragmatism

asmuchasprinciple.Theparallelgovern­

mentisinaprecariousposition.Itdoes

notcontrolanyterritoryandnoforeign

governmentshasformallyrecognisedit.

One reason that it has tried to make

amendsforitstreatmentofRohingyasis

itsdesireforlegitimacy ontheinterna­

tionalstage, saysMrAungKyawMoe, a

Rohingya adviser to the nug’s human­

rightsminister.Theshadowgovernmentis

alsokeenlyawarethat,tohaveanyhopeof

conquering territory, it must forge alli­

anceswithsomeofthetwodozenestab­

lishedethnicrebelgroups,whichbetween

themcommand90,000troops.(TheBur­

mesearmyisthoughttonumber300,000

soldiers.)Thatputstheseinsurgentsinthe

positionof“kingmakers”,writesMinZinof

isp, a think­tankinYangon.Theirlinger­

ingdistrustofthenldhasmadenegotia­

tionswiththenugmoredifficult.

Thetiesthatbind

Nonetheless, since the coup, four rebel

groupshaveprovidedsafehaventonld

politicians fleeing thearmy, nominated

memberstothenug, engagedinnegotia­

tionsabouta newconstitutionandworked

with theshadow government to deliver

humanitarianaid.Theyhavecollaborated

onthebattlefield,too,helpingthenugob­

tainweaponsandadvisingitsleaderson

militarystrategy.ScoresofBamarmilitias

loyaltotheshadowgovernment,knownas

people’sdefence forces,havesprungup.

Rebelgroupshavetrainedtheseinsurgents

andevenfoughtalongsidethem.Thisde­

greeofcollaborationbetweenBamarsand

ethnicminorities“ina populardemocratic

movementisunprecedentedinthecoun­

try’shistory”,saysMrJolliffe.

Thejuntaisstruggling.Itisdeploying

its traditional“four­cuts”counter­insur­

gency method, which involves severing

tiesbetweenguerrillasandthelocalswho

providethemwithfood,funding,intelli­

genceandrecruits.Inpracticethatmeans

terrorising entire villages; more than

400,000 people have fled their homes.

Thatisnothavingthedesiredeffect.In­

stead of pacifying the population, such

actsofcrueltyare“likea hugerecruiting

driveforthelocaldefenceforces”,saysMa­

ryCallahan,a historianofthearmy.

Thearmyisnowfightingonmultiple

fronts:incities,whereundergroundcells

setoffbombsalmosteveryday;inthecen­

trallowlands,inhabitedbyBamars,which

havenotseenconflictingenerations;and

insomeethnic­controlledperipheries(see

chart).Ahandfulofrebelgroupsthathave

notjoinedtheresistanceareseizingthe

opportunitytoexpandtheirterritory.The

juntaisunabletopickitsbattles,isfailing

toattractnewrecruitsandisalienatingthe

public.Norhasitmanagedtosigncease­

fireswithethnicrebelgroups.Itdoesnot

havemomentumonitsside,saysMatthew

Arnold, a researcher on governance in

Myanmar.Theoppositiondoes.

Intheterritorythatitdoescontrol,the

juntaisfindingitdifficulttogovern.“Itis

the equivalent of a foreign occupation

force,”saysa formerdiplomat,onewhich

can onlyprovide“some limitedgovern­

ment” through the application ofbrute

force.Itsgripontheleversofpowerissha­

ky.Sincethecoup,some400,000civilser­

vantshaveresignedinprotest,according

tothenug. Althoughthefigureisnodoubt

inflated,ithintsatthescaleofdisruption.

Povertyisgrowing(seemap).Theeconomy

isinturmoil.TheWorldBankreckonsthat

it isa thirdsmallerthanit wouldhavebeen

withoutcovid­19orthecoup.Thejuntafac­

esa growingbudgetdeficitandmaystrug­

gletopaythecivilservantswhoremainin

post.Myanmar“isalreadyata pointwhere

it’sungovernable”,saysMsCallahan.

Thejunta’sfailuretomasterthesitua­

tiondoesnotmeanthatit islikelytobede­

featedbytheresistance,atleastina con­

ventionalmanner.Thearmyhasfarmore

troopsandweaponsatitsdisposal.Oppos­

ingforcesaredispersedacrossthecountry,

andhavenotbeenknittedintoanyunified

commandstructure.If theirmovements

areguidedbya grandmilitarystrategy,it is

notdiscernible(thoughneitheristhejun­

ta’s). Victory willnot involve resistance

troopsmarchingonthecapital.

Insteadit willconsistofconcertedpres­

surefromseveraldirections,forcingthe

army to withdraw from swathes ofthe

country,a processthatwouldsapmorale

andstokedivisionamongthetopbrass,

perhapsleadingto aninternalsplit.Yet

suchanoutcomecouldtakeyears.Italso

woulddependontheparallelgovernment

persuading ethnic minorities, many of

whomarestillnursingoldgrievances,to

trustit.Yetonethingisalreadyclear:inthe

strugglefortheheartsandmindsoftheBa­

marmajority,thearmyhaslost.n

Ayeyarwady

Mandalay

Bago

Chin

Kachin

Kayah

Kayin

Magway

Mon

Naypyidaw

Rakhine

Sagaing

Shan

INDIA

BANGLADESH CHINA

THAILAND

MYANMAR

LAOS

Ta

nin

th

ar

yi

Yangon

42

37

35

42

50

34

57

40

60

5   

64 50

44

53

72

200 km

Increase in poverty* rate

2017-21, %

Poverty* rate, 2021, %

Source: UNDP

*Living on less than 1,590 kyat

per day (approx. $0.9 in 2022)

0

1501007550

Tumultuous times

Myanmar, incidents of unrest, ’000

Source:ArmedConflictLocation & Event Data Project

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2120181614122010

Violence against civilians

Protests and riots

Explosions/remote violence