The Economist - USA (2022-01-29)

TheEconomistJanuary29th 2022 Asia 47

LifeinAfghanistan

Khybercrevasse

W

henafghanswereaskedin 2016 to
ratetheirlivesona scaleofzeroto
ten,withzerorepresentingthe“worstpos­
siblelife”andtenthebest,theygavethem­
selvesa respectable4.2,thesameasIndi­
ansandonlya littlebelowthemedianof
5.4for 142 countries.Bythesummerof
2021 thescorehadplummetedto2.3,mak­
ingitthemostmiserableofallthecoun­
triespolledbyGallup,a researchfirm,ina
long­runningseriesofsurveys.
Gallupspoketoa nationallyrepresenta­
tivesampleof2,002AfghansbetweenAu­
gust8thandSeptember29thlastyear,even
astheTalibanwascompletingitstakeover
ofthecountry.Thepollsteraskedabout
people’sday­to­daywell­being,justasit
hasdoneinpreviousyears.Wherepossi­
ble,theresearchersspokeintheprivacyof
people’shomesoratleastdiscreetlyoutof
earshot.Theresponsespaintagrimpic­
tureofa populationindespair.
Fully75%ofrespondentssaidthatthere
hadbeentimesinthepastyearwhenthey
didnothaveenough moneyforfood,a
slightrisefrom 2019 anda bigjumpfrom
the44% in2016.Asked if womenwere
treatedwithrespect 67%ofrespondents
replied“no”,upfrommorethanhalfin
2019 andbelow40%in2016.Strikingly,the
shareofmenwhorepliedinthenegative
hasjumpedfrom39%to60%intwoyears.
Afghansarepessimisticaboutthefu­
ture,too.Whenaskedin 2016 and2019,
they imagined that life would improve
withinfiveyears.In 2021 theyexpectedthe
future to be worse.Less than aquarter
thought that Afghanistan was a place
where childrencould “learn andgrow”,
downfromtwo­fifthsin2019.Unsurpris­
ingly,halfsaidtheywantedtoemigrate.
Amongyoung men thefigure wastwo­
thirds.In 2016 a thirdofrespondentssaid
their standardof living wasimproving.

Lastyear82%saidit wasdeteriorating.

Indeed,inthefourmonthssincethe

survey the situation has become even

morebleak.TheunestimatedinOctober

that18.8m ofthe country’s 42m people

facedacutehunger,4.3mmorethana year

earlier. A severedrought,the secondin

fouryears,hasreducedthewheatharvest.

Buttheimmediatecauseoffoodscarcity

hasbeenthedryingupofforeignmoney.

Thecountryusedtoreceiveabout$8.5bna

year,two­fifthsofgdp, fromabroadbefore

theTalibantookover.

WhileAfghansgohungrysome$10bn

ofthe country’sforeignreservesis lan­

guishing inforeign banks. Those funds

could help support the local currency,

whichhasdepreciatedby25%againstthe

dollarsincemid­August,pushingupthe

costofimportedstaples.ButtheAfghan

government’sforeignaccountshavebeen

frozensincetheTalibantookpower.The

richworldwouldlikeassurancesthatthe

Talibanarenolongertherepressivebunch

oustedbyAmerica 20 yearsago.OnJanu­

ary15tha Talibanjuniorministersaidthat

schools—currentlyclosedtogirlsoverthe

ageof11—wouldreopenagainattheendof

Marchoncesegregatedclassroomsarerea­

dy.ButforAfghansitisfood,noteduca­

tion,thatisthemostpressingconcern.n

Afghansaremorepessimisticabout
theirfuturethanever

Bleak state

Afghanistan, % responding “no”

Sources:Gallup;TheEconomist *1,000adults,Apr14th-May4th †1,127adults,Nov3rd-Dec15th ‡2,002 adults, Aug 8th-Sep 29th

201* 2019† 2021‡

Male

Overall

Female

100806040200

Doyouhaveenough

moneyforfood?

Male

Overall

Female

100806040200

Isyourstandardofliving

gettingbetter?

Male

Overall

Female

100806040200

Are women treated

with respect?

Baring their hearts to pollsters

Post-Sovietdemographics

Kazakhifying

Kazakhstan

L

ike most autocrats  Nursultan  Nazar­

bayev,  who  ruled  Kazakhstan  for  three

decades,  thought  a  lot  about  how  best  to

honour  himself.  The  81­year­old  resigned

as president in 2019 and took on a role pull­

ing strings from behind the scenes, but not

before ensuring that the capital city would

bear his name. At the start of January days

of unrest and violence forced Kassym­Zho­

mart  Tokayev,  his  successor  as  president,

to promise wide­ranging changes to the re­

gime Mr Nazarbayev had built. But one part

of the older man’s legacy will not be easy to

undo: the dramatic demographic transfor­

mation  of  the  country  which  he  engi­

neered during his decades in power. 

When  the  Soviet  Union  collapsed  in

1991, Kazakhstan was the only ex­Soviet re­

public where the people after whom it was

named were not a majority. Ethnic Kazakhs

were  just  under  40%  of  the  population.

Russians were 37%. Other minorities made

up the rest. All this was Stalin’s legacy. His

famine in the 1930s killed a quarter of the

country’s population, and he deported eth­

nic groups he didn’t trust to Kazakhstan. 

By  the  time  Kazakhstan  celebrated  the

30th  anniversary  of  its  independence  at

the  end  of  2021,  a  new  census  revealed  a

different country. Ethnic Kazakhs are now

70%  of  a  population  of  19m.  Ethnic  Rus­

sians  are  only  18%.  Outward  Russian  mi­

gration and lower birth rates among Slavic

minorities  contributed  to  this  shift.  But  a

generous  government  programme  de­

signed  to  persuade  foreign­born  Kazakhs

to move to the country played a big part, re­

sulting  in  about  a  million  new  arrivals

since independence.

Mr  Nazarbayev  launched  the  pro­

gramme  in  the  1990s  because  he  deemed

the  country’s  demographic  make­up  a

threat  to  its  national  security.  Saying  so

openly would have alienated both his eth­

nic­Russian  citizens  and  the  government

of Russia, with which Kazakhstan shares a

border  stretching  for  7,600  km.  So  he  of­

fered  perks  such  as  cash  and  generous

loans  to  buy  homes  and  businesses  in  or­

der  to  lure  the  millions  of  Kazakhs  scat­

tered abroad back “home”, where many of

them had never set foot before. 

Foreign­born Kazakhs now make up 6%

of  the  population.  Many  have  settled  in

seamlessly,  especially  those  from  other

former Soviet states. Others have struggled

with  culture,  language  and  politics,  in­

cluding some Chinese­born Kazakhs seek­

A LMATY

How money and migration changed the

face of a nation