48 Asia The Economist January 29th 2022
T
here are good reasons why women
are less likely than men to be at the
front of studentled protests making a
stand against the regime of Sheikh Hasi
na Wajed, Bangladesh’s steely prime
minister, which is wielding truncheons
and a patronage system based on graft to
extend its 13 years in power. Young men
picked up by the security forces can
expect a beating. Young women fear
being raped. In a conservative Muslim
country, the mere fact that a woman has
entered a police station or jail unes
corted generates a special stigma. Fian
cés’ families often cancel planned wed
dings. Reza Kibria, a former imfofficial
trying to turn student protests into a
political opposition, describes his un
expected role as matchmaker for women
caught up in the security forces’ dragnet.
Until recently, any challenge to the
regime looked nearly hopeless. The
powerful security forces—which have
made or broken governments, when not
ruling themselves—have firmly backed
Sheikh Hasina, helping her win the last
election amid claims of voterigging.
Their support for her was not inevita
ble. The army assassinated her father,
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was also
the founding father of Bangladesh, in a
coup in 1975, along with many of her
family. Sheikh Hasina’s political career
has been about avenging their deaths. In
opposition she was a fierce critic of the
security services and of their onetime
paymaster (and her archrival), Khaleda
Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party
(bnp). Today Mrs Zia, infirm and under
house arrest, poses no threat. Sheikh
Hasina has purged the army and police of
bnpsupporters, promoting instead
loyalists with a sense of impunity.
The impunity extends, above all, to
violence. The most notorious unit of
Bangladesh’s thugocracy is the Rapid
Action Battalion (rab). Supposed to go
after drug gangsters and terrorists, this
paramilitary force has as often settled
political scores and hounded the opposi
tion. It is said to have killed over 1,300
Bangladeshis in what are known euphe
mistically as “crossfire” incidents (read:
extrajudicial killings) and abducted hun
dreds—many of whom later turn up dead.
Yet the stroke of an American pen has
brought about a striking shift. Pressed by
Congress, the administration of President
Joe Biden in December imposed sanctions
on the rabfor its humanrights abuses, as
well as on a handful of top security offi
cers with links to it, including the coun
try’s police chief. Some speculate that
other individuals could be next, including
the prime minister’s powerful son, Sajeeb
Wajed, who has an American passport. An
atypical silence has descended on the
elites, including the normally voluble Mr
Wajed. More striking: the number of extra
judicial killings has fallen to zero.
Abrar Chowdhury, who recently retired
as a professor from Dhaka University, says
the government is “rattled”. Many among
the elites send their children to Western
universities, funnel illgotten cash to
Western bank accounts and hope to
retire to properties in America, Australia,
Britain or Canada. With these perks at
risk in the United States, and possibly
elsewhere in future, suddenly the elites’
support of Sheikh Hasina at the next
election, due by the end of next year, can
no longer be taken for granted.
Nor, more crucially, can the complic
ity of the security services. Senior offi
cers are not the problem. They run mas
sive business interests and enjoy all
kinds of swag. Silver from a stream of
Chinese loans and arms sales has flowed
into generals’ pockets. The poorly paid
lower ranks, in contrast, have only one
real route for financial betterment: a tour
as unpeacekeepers, of which Bangla
desh’s are the world’s most numerous.
Yet calls are growing, both within the
Biden administration and by human
rights groups, for the unto suspend
Bangladesh’s peacekeeping force until
rabelements are expunged from it.
The American sanctions will not end
Sheikh Hasina’s aversion to democratic
norms. Other Western powers are not
guaranteed to back America up. Britain’s
postBrexit approach, emphasising
former imperial connections, is shame
fully limp on human rights. Meanwhile,
new regulations crack down harder on
social media in Bangladesh, while a draft
law erodes further the accountability of
an already gutted election commission.
Still, as Mr Kibria puts it, the sanc
tions mark an easy—and, with ordinary
Bangladeshis, wildly popular—victory
for America. The victory, in turn, has
offered civic groups and democratic
minded politicians an unexpected
glimpse of a more hopeful future.
Bangladesh shows that sanctions really can improve respect for human rights
Banyan Put down your truncheons
ing refuge from antiMuslim repression in
China’s Xinjiang region. They have found
that the government’s ties with China
trump ethnic solidarity.
Like migrants around the world, they
have also faced hostility from those alrea
dy in the country. Some citizens resent the
perks foreignborn Kazakhs are offered. To
allay such worries the system now encour
ages migration to designated regions,
mostly in the north along the border with
Russia, where large groups of ethnic Rus
sians live. The official goal is to tackle la
bour shortages. But the unspoken aim is to
make these areas more linguistically and
culturally Kazakh.
That goal has become more pressing for
Kazakhstan’s government since Vladimir
Putin, Russia’s president, annexed Crimea
in 2014, using the supposed oppression of
Russianspeakers as a pretext. Russia’s re
newed sabrerattling on the Ukrainian bor
der has reminded Kazakhs that some Rus
sian nationalists make territorial claims
on Kazakhstan, too. Many were anxious
when Russian troops briefly got their boots
on the ground in Kazakhstan in January,
after Mr Tokayev asked Mr Putin for help
restoring order.
Kazakhification frightens the 30% of
Kazakhstanis from ethnic minorities. They
were terrified by deadly attacks in 2020 on
villages inhabited by Dungans, Mandarin
speaking Muslims of Chinese descent.
Some fear that ethnic nationalism may be
unleashed now that Mr Nazarbayev, who at
least combined his efforts at Kazakhifica
tion with rhetoric about national harmony,
has all but left the scene. As legacies go, en
suring that citizens get on may be ashard
to make stick as the new name for thecap
ital—which may soon revert to Astana.n