Project Management

Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty 149

Responding to High-Threat Problems

There are a number of ways to address the high-threat prob-
lems you identify. Let’s examine all of the options for dealing
with risk and potential problems:

Avoidance. In avoidance, you choose a course of action that
eliminates your exposure to the threat. This often means that
you’re now pursuing a completely different course from what
you’d originally planned. The space shuttle program provides an
excellent study in avoidance. Many flights are carefully planned
and then, because of marginal weather conditions, scrubbed.
Delaying the takeoff of a space shuttle mission because of a
weather threat is a perfect example of risk avoidance.

Transfer. The most widely quoted example of risk transfer is
something we’re all very familiar with—insurance. Risk transfer
does not “treat” the risk; it simply makes another party respon-
sible for the consequences of the risk.

Zone of

High

Risk

Zone of

Maximum

Risk

Zone of

Minimum Risk

0510

Seriousness (if event occurs)

0

5

10

Probability (that event will occur)

Zone of

Moderate

Risk

Zone of

Moderate

Risk

Figure 8-4. Graphical representation of threat ratings