Abstract
The green revolution led to enormous gains in food
production and improved world food security. In
many countries, however, intensive crop production
has had negative impacts on production, ecosystems
and the larger environment putting future productivity
at risk. In order to meet the projected demands of a
growing population expected to exceed 9 billion by
2050, farmers in the developing world must double
food production, a challenge complicated by the
effects of climate change and growing competition
for land, water and energy. The paper outlines a new
paradigm, Sustainable Crop Production Intensification
(SCPI), which aims to produce more from the same
area of land, through increasing efficiency and
reducing waste, while conserving resources, reducing
negative impacts on the environment and enhancing
the provision of ecosystem services. The paper
highlights the underlying principles and outlines
some of the key management practices and tech-
nologies required to implement SCPI, recognizing
that the appropriate combination will depend on
local needs and conditions, and on the development
of supportive policies and institutions.
- The challenge
The world’s population is expected to grow to over
9 billion people by 2050; there will be a need to raise
food production by some 70 percent globally and by
almost 100 percent in developing countries. In many
developing countries there is little or no room for
expansion of arable land. Virtually no spare land is
available in South Asia and the Near East/North
Africa. Where land is available, in sub-Saharan
Africa and Latin America, more than 70 percent
suffersfrom soil and terrain constraints. An estimated
80 percent of the required food production increases
will thus need to come from land that is already
under cultivation at a time when annual growth in
crop productivity is decreasing from a rate of around
3 to 5 percent a year in the 1960s to a projected 1
percent in 2050. Increases in agricultural production
will therefore have to come in the form of yield in-
creases and higher cropping intensities.This increase must be achieved against a challenging
backdrop including the decreasing availability of and
competition for water, resource degradation (e.g.
poor soil fertility), energy scarcity (resulting in
higher costs for input production and transport) as
well as climate change where alterations in tem-
perature, precipitation and pest incidence will affect
farmers’ choice of crops to grow and when, as well as
their potential yields. Changing dietary and nutritional
needs and requirements as a result of urbanization
also present a challenge. By 2050, some 70 percent
of the world population will be urban dwellers as
compared to 5 0 percent today. If such trends continue,
urbanization and income growth in developing
countries will lead to higher consumption of animal
products which will further drive increased demand
for cereals to feed livestock (FAO, 2011).2. The green revolution
The green revolution of the 1960s and 1970s was a
qualified success. The production model, which
initially focused on the introduction of higher yield-
ing varieties of rice, wheat and maize relied upon
and promoted homogeneity: genetically uniform
varieties grown with high levels of complementary
inputs such as irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides.
Fertilizer use tended to replace soil quality man-
agement while herbicides provided an alternative
to crop rotation as a means of controlling weeds
(FAO, 2011).The green revolution is credited, especially in Asia,
as having jump-started economies, alleviated rural
poverty and saved large areas of fragile land from
possible conversion to extensive farming. Between
1975 and 2000 cereal yields in south Asia increased
by more than 50 percent while poverty declined
30 percent. Over the last 50 years world annual
production of cereals, coarse grains, roots tubers67