88
2010a). Increasing concentrate feed efficiency will
lead most likely to shift with regard to the species
away from ruminants towards monogastric species
like poultry and pigs (FAO, 2010a). On the breed
level, local breeds will more and more be replaced
by transboundary breeds, leading to a further loss of
local breeds and their manifold functions. Besides
the loss of between-breed diversity an additional
loss of within-breed diversity can be expected due
to the further pressure on increasing yields of
transboundary breeds by applying effective breeding
programmes focusing on rather narrow breeding
goals. Such losses due to effective breeding pro-
grammes might even be faster than in the past due
to application of new biotechnologies.Intensification of livestock production systems,
coupled with specialization in breeding and the
harmonizing effects of globalization and zoosanitary
standards, has led to a substantial reduction in the
genetic diversity within domesticated animal species
(FAO, 2007). The risk for breed survival in the past was
highest in regions that have the most highly-special-
ized livestock industries with fast structural change
and in the species kept in such systems. Globally,
about one-third of cattle, pig and chicken breeds are
already extinct or currently at risk (FAO, 2010a).
According to the last status and trends report of AnGR
(FAO, 2010a) a total of 1 710 (or 21 percent) of breeds
are classified as being “at risk”.Recent studies proposed that the consumption of
farm animal products must be curtailed to reduce
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (Stehfest
et all., 2009). Others propose lowering meat demand
in industrialized countries (Gretheet all., 2011)
which, although having only a small effect on food
security in developing countries, would have positive
effects for human health, result in a less unequal
per capita use of global resources, lower green-
house gas emissions, and could ease the introduction
of higher animal welfare standards (see also
Deckers, 2010).A further option to fulfill the globally growing demand
for animal source products could be the use of
“artificial” meat orin vitroproduced meat. In this
trajectory, changes in food composition could
improve health characteristics, and closed industrial
production technology may result in more hygienic
and environmental friendly characteristics than
“traditional” meat (Thornton, 2010). While this may
contribute, e.g. to the health aspect of a sustainable
diet, it may possibly not fulfill the criterion of “cultural
acceptance”. Also, a large-scale development and
uptake ofin vitromeat will have severe effects on
the livestock sector and most likely a negative effect
on the diversity of AnGR.In vitromeat and food for-
tification also contradict the concept of sustainable
diet which stresses the importance of food-based
approaches (Allen, 2008).Finally, the reduction of food losses will be critical,
as they imply that huge amounts of the resources
used in and GHG emissions caused by production of
food are used in vain. Waste disposal releases even
more GHG. ASF, being highly perishable and con-
nected to food safety risks, incur high losses along
the chain. Losses of meat and meat products in all
developing regions are distributed quite equally
throughout the chain, while in industrialized regions,
about 5 0 percent of losses occur at the end of the
chain due to high per capita meat consumption
combined with large waste proportions by retailers
and consumers. Waste at the consumption level
makes up approximately 40–65 percent of total milk
food waste in industrialized regions. For all devel-
oping regions, waste of milk during post-harvest
handling and storage, as well as at the distribution
level, is relatively high (FAO, 2011b).In summary, the actual trends in combination with
the growing demand for products of animal origin for
human diets will inevitably lead to a shift in agricultural
systems towards more intensive systems. This will
most likely favour international transboundary
breeds instead of local breeds. At species level, the