The Times - UK (2022-02-03)

12 Thursday February 3 2022 | the times

News

Boris Johnson is leading Britain into
the trap of becoming a “low growth,
high tax” economy that will lead to a
“lost decade” for prosperity, the coun-
try’s largest business group has warned.
In a highly critical assessment of
government policy, the head of the
Confederation of Business Industry
said that ministers appeared to be con-
tent to settle for a “miserable projected
growth rate” over the next four years.
He warned that unless Rishi Sunak,
the chancellor, introduced policies to
encourage firms to invest in the UK,
ministers would have no choice but to
keep taxes at historically high levels or
cut public spending.
“If you can’t improve growth then
you are stuck in a trap of high spending
and high taxes,” Tony Danker told The
Times before a speech today.
“That means if you want to bring
taxes down, you have to cut spending.
And if you don’t want to cut spending
you’re going to have to keep taxes
high. Growth is the only way that you

Johnson bows to pressure over delayed anti-corruption law

Chris Smyth Whitehall Editor

A law to clamp down on fraudsters and
money laundering will be introduced
before the next election, Boris Johnson
has promised after a backlash against
plans to delay.
Cabinet ministers have been pressing
Johnson to make a commitment to an
economic crime bill, while No 10 was
also said to be concerned about going
soft on Russian money while President
Putin is threatening Ukraine.
The long-planned law, designed to

reveal who owns UK property through

shell companies and toughen checks on

company directors, was kicked into the

long grass last month when ministers

decided there was no time for it before

a Queen’s speech expected in May.

Lord Agnew of Oulton, who resigned

as counter-fraud minister at the dis-

patch box last week in protest against

the government’s “desperately inade-

quate” efforts to stop taxpayers’ money

being stolen, had criticised the “foolish”

decision to drop the economic crime

bill. Priti Patel, the home secretary, is

among those who has been pushing for

the decision to be reversed.

Yesterday Johnson, who insisted the

government had “come down very hard

on dirty money from Russia” through

measures such as unexplained wealth

orders, told the Commons: “We are

bringing forward the economic crime

Bill and it will be voted on in the third

session of this parliament.”

Last week The Times revealed

American concern that sanctions

against Putin would be undermined by

British tolerance of suspect money

flooding into London. John Penrose,

the Conservative MP who is Johnson’s

anti-corruption champion, said that

the announcement was “absolutely

brilliant news”.

Susan Hawley, of the campaign

group Spotlight on Corruption, said: “It

is excellent news that the government

has seen sense... It’s a shame that it

took a ministerial resignation, the

build-up of Russian troops on the

borders of Ukraine, pressure from the

US and headlines about Covid fraud for

this U-turn to happen.”

Matt Dathan Home Affairs Editor

The statistics watchdog is investigating

allegations that Boris Johnson and Priti

Patel falsely claimed crime had fallen

under their leadership.

The UK Statistics Authority con-

firmed that it has opened a case into

comments made by Boris Johnson

when he said in the Commons that “we

have been cutting crime by 14 per cent”.

It is also looking at a Home Office press

release which said that the latest data

showed “crime continues to fall under

this government”, quoting Priti Patel as

saying that it demonstrated the govern-

ment’s approach “is working”.

A spokesman said that it was looking

into a complaint made by Alistair Car-

michael, the Liberal Democrat home

affairs spokesman.

Despite a fall in most crimes during

coronavirus lockdowns, some are now

reaching or exceeding pre-pandemic

levels, with rises in some offences such

as fraud offsetting reductions seen else-

where, the Office for National Statistics

(ONS) said last week.

Police recorded 5.8 million crimes in

England and Wales in the 12 months to

September, a 2 per cent increase com-

pared with the previous year. Excluding

fraud and computer misuse, the figure

falls just under 1 per cent (from 4.95 mil-

lion to 4.92 million) in the same period.

The figures show that police record-

ed the highest number of rapes and

sexual offences in a 12-month period

and separate Home Office data shows

the proportion of suspects being taken

to court has fallen to a record low.

The results of the latest crime survey

for England and Wales carried out by

the ONS estimates a 14 per cent in-

crease in crime, “driven by a 47 per cent

increase in fraud and computer mis-

use”, for the year ending last September

compared with the 12 months to Sep-

tember 2019.

Tories pushing Britain into lost

decade of low growth, says CBI

Oliver Wright Policy Editor can offset the risk of high taxes or
austerity.”
Danker said that the dilemma facing
ministers had been exemplified by the
row over the plan to increase national
insurance payments from this April.
“You have people on the one hand
saying that because of the cost of living
we need to cut taxes,” he said. “And you
have a government saying we can’t
afford to [cut taxes] because we have to
pay for the NHS.
“The trap is already kicking in. And
that trap is only going to get worse.”
The government has adopted the
Office for Budget Responsibility’s
forecast of 1.3 to 1.7 per cent annual
growth until 2026.
This is significantly lower than the
historical long-term economic growth
rates of between 2-2.5 per cent.
Danker said that the problem the
government faced was that because of
the 2008 crash and Brexit, the country
had already lost “one decade” of growth
and risked losing another.
“We’ve had anaemic growth and
flatlining productivity for the last ten

years. If we are not careful we will re-

peat that,” he said.

“The OBR has not forecast beyond

the three to five-year period — but if we

are hitting consistent run rates of 1.3 to

1.6, then if we are not careful we are

going to have another low growth

decade.”

In his speech to the Centre for Policy

Studies, Danker will say that the gov-

ernment’s problems come at a time

when Covid means greater pressure on

public sector spending, while the needs

of an ageing population “will put even

more pressure on the public purse”.

“By our calculations, by 2030 we may

need to find an additional £40 billion to

£50 billion a year to cover the costs of an

ageing society, and more than double

that by the middle of the next decade,”

he said.

To increase growth rates, Danker

said, the government needed to look at

significant long-term policies to

encourage firms to invest, improve the

skills of their workforce and improve

productivity.

He called on Sunak to extend the tax

relief available for businesses to invest

when corporation tax increases next

year.

He also called for an overhaul of the

apprenticeship levy, which he said was

acting as a barrier for firms to invest in

their workforces.

Danker added that ministers needed

to fully throw their support behind

growth industries of the future — such

as green technology — to make the

most of private sector investment in the

UK. “The CBI will be using every week,

every month, to promote serious

growth to businesses across the

country,” he said.

“We will ask them to increase

business investment. In net zero. In

innovation and digital transformation.

In exports. In skills. In the health and

wellbeing of their workforce.”

Danker added: “Everything the gov-

ernment is currently trying, to get

growth going, merely achieves a new

normal of low growth. At the CBI, we

think we can do better.”

It’s almost as if Frost wants to be Tory

leader, David Aaronovitch, page 25

PM’s ‘falling

crime figures’

investigated

DUP orders

halt to Brexit

port checks

Oliver Wright, Bruno Waterfield

Northern Ireland’s Democratic Union-

ist Party was last night accused of trying

to pull off an “unlawful” stunt after the

party’s agriculture minister ordered a

halt to Brexit agri-food checks at

Northern Ireland ports.

Edwin Poots, whose officials are re-

sponsible for carrying out the checks on

the Northern Ireland protocol, said he

had ordered his permanent secretary to

stop them from midnight today.

Last night it was unclear whether

Anthony Harbinson, the senior civil

servant in his department, would com-

ply with the order that would breach

the UK’s obligations under the deal.

EU sources said if the checks were

stopped it would be the legal duty of the

UK government to force the Northern

Ireland executive to back down.

Government sources insisted that

the checks were a “matter for the

executive” and the current protocol is

unsustainable.

Last week Poots failed to secure the

wider approval of the Stormont execu-

tive to continue checks. Sinn Fein used

its veto to prevent the issue from get-

ting on the agenda. Michelle O’Neill,

the Sinn Fein deputy first minister, said

Poots’s attempt was a stunt.

Novel idea Fans of

James Joyce mark

100 years since the

publication of Ulysses

at the James Joyce

Martello Tower in

Sandycove, Dublin

BRIAN LAWLESS/PA