Global Warming

(Nancy Kaufman) #1

194 The impactsof climate change


37 Reilly, J.et al. 1996. Agriculture in a changing climate. In Watson,Climate
Change 1995: Impacts, Chapter 13.
38 More detail in Gitay, H.et al. 2001. Ecosystems and their goods and services.
In McCarthy,Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Chapter 5, Section 3; also
for an estimate of the global effect of CO 2 fertilisation on ecosystems see
Melillo, J. M.et al. 1993. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary
production.Nature, 363 , pp. 234–40.
39 The statement in this sentence and the sentence following are from The
summary for policymakers in Watson, R.et al. (eds.) 2001.Climate Change
2001: Synthesis Report.Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to
the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. However, because of the
many factors involved in the studies, regarding many of which there are
large uncertainties, the IPCC only ascribed medium confidence (see Note


  1. in Chapter 4 for explanations of IPCC confidence statements) to these
    statements.
    40 SeeGlobal Environmental Outlook 3 (UNEP Report).2002. London:
    Earthscan, pp. 63–5.
    41 Parry, M.et al. 1999. Climate change and world food security: a new as-
    sessment.Global Environmental Change, 9 , S51–S67.
    42 From Watson,Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, paragraph 5.17.
    43 Miko, U. F.et al. 1996. Climate change impacts on forests. In Watson,
    Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Chapter 1. See also Gitay, H.et al. 2001.
    Ecosystems and their goods and services. In McCarthy,Climate Change
    2001: Impacts, Chapter 5, Section 5.6.3.
    44 Lean, J., Rowntree, P. R. 1993. A simulation of the impact of Amazonian
    deforestation on climate using an improved canopy representation.Quar-
    terly Journal ofthe Royal Meteorological Society, 119 , pp. 509–30. Similar
    results with somewhat larger reductions in rainfall have been reported by
    Henderson-Sellers, A.et al. 1993. Tropical deforestation: modelling lo-
    cal to regional scale climate change.Journal of Geophysics Research, 98 ,
    pp. 7289–315.
    45 Mylne, M. F., Rowntree, P. R. 1992. Modelling the effects of albedo change
    associated with tropical deforestation.Climatic Change, 21 , pp. 317–43.
    46 Quoted in Mitchell, J. F. B.et al. 1990. Equilibrium climate change and its
    implications for the future. In Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephraums, J. J.
    (eds.) 1990.Climate Change: the IPCC Scientific Assessments.Cambridge:
    Cambridge University Press, pp.131–72.
    47 Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Harris, P., Huntingford, C., Jones, C.
    D. 2004. Amazon dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the
    21st century.Theoretical and Applied Climatology, in press.
    48 Gates, D. M. 1993.Climate Change and its Biological Consequences.
    Sunderland, Mass.: Sinauer Associates Inc., p. 77.
    49 Bowes, M. D., Sedjo, R. A. 1993. Impacts and responses to climate change
    in forests of the MINK region.Climatic Change, 24 , pp. 63–82.

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