228 Weighingthe uncertainty
human response, the major changes that are likely to be needed, for in-
stance in large-scale infrastructure, will take many decades. Large power
stations that will produce electricity in thirty or forty years’ time are be-
ing planned and built today. The demands that are likely to be placed on
all of us because of concerns about global warming need to be brought
into the planning process now.
Thirdly, many of the required actions not only lead to substantial
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions but they are good to do for other
reasons which bring other direct benefits – such proposals for action are
often described as ‘no regrets’ proposals. Many actions addressing in-
creased efficiency lead also to net savings in cost (sometimes called ‘win-
win’ measures). Other actions lead to improvements in performance or
additional comfort.
Fourthly, there are more general beneficial reasons for some of the
proposed actions. In Chapter 8 it was pointed out that humans are far too
profligate in their use of the world’s resources. Fossil fuels are burnt and
minerals are used, forests are cut down and soil is eroded without any
serious thoughtof the needs of future generations. The imperative of the
global warming problem will help us to use the world’s resources in a
more sustainable way. Further, the technical innovation that will be re-
quired in the energy industry – in energy efficiency and conservation and
in renewable energy development – will provide a challenge and oppor-
tunity to the world’s industry to develop important new technologies –
more of that in Chapter 11.The Precautionary Principle
Some of these arguments for action are applications of what is often
called the Precautionary Principle, one of the basic principles that was
included in the Rio Declaration at the Earth Summit in June 1992 (see box
below). A similar statement is contained in article 3 of the Framework
Convention on Climate Change (see box on page 243 in Chapter 10).
We often apply the Precautionary Principle in our day-to-day living.
We take out insurance policies to cover the possibility of accidents or
losses; we carry out precautionary maintenance on housing or on ve-
hicles, and we readily accept that in medicine prevention is better than
cure. In all these actions we weigh up the cost of insurance or other
precautions against the possible damage and conclude that the invest-
ment is worthwhile. The arguments are very similar as the Precautionary
Principle is applied to the problem of global warming.
In taking out an insurance policy we often have in mind the pos-
sibility of the unexpected. In fact, when selling their policies, insur-
ance companies often trade on our fear of the unlikely or the unknown,