Forests 249Protocol to come into force fifty-five countries have to ratify together
with sufficient Annex I countries to represent fifty-five per cent of Annex
I country emissions. With ratification by Russia towards the end of 2004,
the Protocol will come into force on 16 February 2005.
Concern has often been expressed about the likely cost of implemen-
tation of the Kyoto Protocol. Cost studies have been carried out using a
number of international energy-economic models. For nine such stud-
ies, the range of values in impacts on the gross domestic product (GDP)
of participating countries is as follows.^2 In the absence of emissions
trading, estimated reductions in projected GDP in the year 2010 are be-
tween 0.2% and 2% compared with a base case with no implementation
of the Protocol. With emissions trading between Annex I countries, the
estimated reductions in GDP are between 0.1% and 1.1%. If emissions
trading with all countries is assumed through idealCDM (see box be-
low) implementation, the estimated reductions in GDP are substantially
less – between 0.01% and 0.7%. Although there are differences between
countries, most of the large range in the results is due to differences in the
models and can be considered as an expression of the large uncertainties
inherent in such studies at the present stage of development.
The Kyoto Protocol is an important start to the mitigation of cli-
mate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. With its
complexity and its diversity of mechanisms for implementation, it also
represents a considerable achievement in international negotiation and
agreement. It will stem the continuing growth of emissions from many
industrialised countries and achieve a reduction overall compared with
1990 from those Annex I countries that participate. The much more sub-
stantial longer-term reductions that are likely to be necessary for the
decades that follow the first commitment period will be discussed later
in the chapter.
Forests
We now turn tothe situation of the world’s forests and the contribution
that they can make to the mitigation of global warming. Action here can
easily be taken now and is commendable for many other reasons.
Over the past few centuries many countries, especially those at mid
latitudes, have removed much of their forest cover to make room for
agriculture. Many of the largest and most critical remaining forested
areas are in the tropics. However, during the last few decades, the ad-
ditional needs of the increasing populations of developing countries for
agricultural land and for fuelwood, together with the rise in demand for
tropical hardwoods by developed countries, has led to a worrying rate
of loss of forest in tropical regions (see box below). In many tropical