264 A strategyfor action to slowand stabiliseclimate change
Other actions that can be taken now to slow climate change, that can be
done at little or no net cost and that are good to do for other reasons are
the following:
a reduction of deforestation,
a substantial increase in afforestation,
some relatively easy-to-do reductions in methane emissions,
an aggressive increase in energy saving and conservation measures,
increased implementation of renewable sources of energy supply.For the longer term, as well as increased emphasis on these actions, the
world needs to begin to follow an energy scenario that will lead to the sta-
bilisation of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. The choice
of a targetstabilisation level following the guidance of the Climate Con-
vention involves the consideration of many factors and, because of the
uncertainties, will necessarily be subject to continuous review. We have
presented arguments suggesting that, atthe current state of knowledge,
the range 400–500 ppm in carbon dioxide concentration is where further
detailed consideration of costs and impacts should be concentrated. A
proposal called ‘Contraction and Convergence’ meets the requirement
for international equity through eventual agreement for equal alloca-
tions per capita coupled with arrangements for allocations’ trading. A
study by the World Energy Council has detailed an energy scenario that
would lead to the stabilisation of carbon dioxide concentration by about- Its realisation will require very rapid growth in the implementa-
tion of appropriate non-fossil fuel energy sources; it will also require that
means be provided to enable developing countries to apply appropriate
and efficient technologies to their industrial development, especially in
the energy sector – matters that will be addressed in detail in the next
chapter.
Questions
1 From Figure 10.1, what are the rates of change of global average temperature
for the profiles shown that lead to stabilisation of carbon dioxide concentration
at different levels? From information in Chapter 7 or from elsewhere, can you
suggest a criterion involving rate of change that might assist in the choice
of a stabilisation level for carbon dioxide concentration as required by the
Objective of the Climate Convention?
2 From the formula in Note 20 and the information in Figure 3.8 and Table 6.1,
calculate the contributions from the various components of radiative forcing
(including aerosol) to the equivalent carbon dioxide concentration in 1990.
How valid do you think is it to speak of equivalent carbon dioxide for com-
ponents such as aerosol and tropospheric ozone?