Global Warming

Future energy projections 275

Traditional Gas Hydro

New renewables Nuclear

Biofuels

Coal

Oil

80

60

40

20

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

0

Primary energy share %

Year

Figure 11.7Energy

transitions over two

centuries. Under ’dynamics

as usual’ energy supplies

continue to evolve from

high to low carbon fuels

and towards electricity as

the dominant energy

carrier – from increasingly

distributed sources – driven

by demands for security,

cleanliness and

sustainability.

a WEC study on renewable energy,^7 a substantial growth in the share
of primary energy supply coming from new renewable energy sources
(‘modern’ biomass, solar, wind and so on). A growth in world energy
supply from these new renewable sources from two per cent in 1990 to
twelve per cent in 2020 (by when 1.4 Gtoe per year would be coming
from these sources) is considered feasible if their development is given
sufficient support. By the year 2050 under scenario C, twenty per cent
of energy supply is assumed to come from new renewable sources and
by 2100, fifty per cent. The WEC report points out that ‘cost effective
research, development and installation involving financing which only
governments can supply will be needed if these sources of energy are
to be implemented on the large scale shown in the Ecologically Driven
Case C’. Renewable energy sources will be discussed further later in the
chapter.
During the last few years many organisations have developed miti-
gation energy scenarios for the twenty-first century under a wide variety
of assumptions regarding the growth of total energy, renewable energy
and energy efficiency.^8 As one example of these, Figure 11.7 shows a
scenario developed by the Shell Oil Company which is called ‘Dynamics