Global Warming

Future energy projections 277

Table 11.1Assumptions underlying the four WEC energy scenarios. See glossary

for explanation of abbreviations

Case (name)
AB1BC
Assumptions (High growth) (Modified reference (Reference) (Ecologically driven

Economic growth % p.a. High Moderate Moderate Moderate
OECD 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
CEE/CIS 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
DCs 5.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
World 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.3
Energy intensity
reduction % p.a. High Moderate High Very high
OECD −1.8 −1.9 −1.9 −2.8
CEE/CIS −1.7 −1.2 −2.1 −2.1
DCs −1.3 −0.8 −1.7 −2.4
World −1.6 −1.3 −1.9 −2.4
Technology transfer High Moderate High Very high
Institutional
improvements (world) High Moderate High Very high
Possible total demand Very high High Moderate Low
(Gtoe) 17.2 16.0 13.4 11.3

FromEnergy for Tomorrow’s World: the Realities, the Real Options and the Agenda for Achievement.
WEC Commission Report. New York: World Energy Council, p. 27.

Table 11.2Some characteristics of the WEC scenarios out to the year 2100

Case

ABC

1990 2050 2100 2050 2100 2050 2100

Global energy demand (Gtoe) 8.8 27 42 23 33 15 20
Fossil fuels (% of primary energy) 77 58 40 57 33 58 15
Nuclear (% of primary energy) 5 14 29 15 28 8 11
New renewables
(% of primary energy) 2 15 24 14 26 20 50
Annual CO 2 emissions
from fossil fuels (Gt carbon) 6.0 14.9 16.6 12.2 11.7 7.3 2.5
Annual CO 2 emissions from
fossil fuels (% change on 1990) 152 181 107 98 24 − 59

FromEnergy for Tomorrow’s World: the Realities, the Real Options and the Agenda for Achievement.
WEC Commission Report. New York: World Energy Council, p. 304.