Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy

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EMBARGOED UNTIL 4:30 PM ET, DECEMBER 20, 2016


These proposals represent steps that can be taken to prepare for a continuation of the job impacts
that are already occurring in the economy. If, however, the economic impact of AI is relatively
intense or comes on relatively quickly, and if the number of jobs affected approaches the
estimates of Frey and Osbourne, then the unemployment insurance system may need to be
significantly upgraded to match the magnitude of economic disruption and ensure that displaced
workers do not leave the labor force.


Give Workers Improved Guidance to Navigate Job Transitions


With the AI revolution, guidance about how to effectively navigate this transition will be all the
more critical. Simple and relatively inexpensive services such as job-search assistance, advice
about education and training, and access to labor-market information have been found to be quite
effective at helping individuals looking for work find employment more quickly. Evaluations
typically find that employment services speed up employment by one to two weeks.^69
Additionally, more intensive counseling services have been shown to increase recipients’
earnings and decrease the time they spend unemployed.^70 AI can also be applied, to help workers
find information that is best suited to their particular skills and circumstances.


Strengthen Other Safety Net Programs


Other programs, such as SNAP and TANF, can provide critical safeguards for individuals who
have lost their jobs or seen a substantial drop in income, by supplementing low-income
households with food and monetary assistance. SNAP has played an important role in lifting
millions of Americans out of poverty over the past five decades by providing key nutrition in
times of need, with research showing that its benefits go beyond alleviating hunger to improving
short-run and long-run health, educational attainment, and economic self-sufficiency.^71


The TANF program, in conjunction with SNAP, was originally intended to help needy families
achieve self-sufficiency. If automation leads to a rise in the number of families needing basic
assistance due to growing inequality and poverty, it will be important to have a strong TANF
program in place to help especially hard-hit families get back on their feet and work toward self-
sufficiency. The President put forward a package of proposals to strengthen TANF, shoring up a
system that has eroded over time, which would better support families affected by AI-driven
automation.


In addition, the President’s budget includes a new $2 billion in funds to test and scale innovative
state and local approaches to aid families facing financial crisis. For families on the brink—


(^69) Louis Jacobson and Ian Petta, “Measuring the Effect of Public Labor Exchange (PLX) Referrals and Placements
in Washington and Oregon,” OWS Occasional Paper 6 , 2000
(https://wdr.doleta.gov/research/FullText_Documents/owsop_2000_06.pdf).
(^70) Marios Michaelides, Eileen Poe-Yamagata, Jacob Benus, and Dharmendra Tirumalasetti, “Impact of the
Reemployment and Eligibility Assessment (REA) Initiative in Nevada,” IMPAQ International, 2012
(http://www.impaqint.com/sites/default/files/project-
reports/ETAOP_2012_08_REA_Nevada_Follow_up_Report.pdf).
(^71) The White House, “Long-Term Benefits of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” Executive Office of
the President, December 2015
(https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/SNAP_report_final_nonembargo.pdf).

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