The Economist - USA (2022-02-12)

TheEconomistFebruary12th 2022 25

The Americas

BrazilandChina

A lopsided romance

O

n a tripto  China  in  2004  Luiz  Inácio

Lula da Silva, then president of Brazil,

took  with  him  an  entourage  fit  for  a  rock

star: seven cabinet ministers, six state go­

vernors  and  more  than  450  businessmen.

Relationships  were  established  and  deals

hashed out. Over the next five years China

would  become  Brazil’s  most  important

economic partner. By 2019 annual trade be­

tween the countries was worth $100bn.

The  first  state  visit  by  Jair  Bolsonaro,

the current president, was far more muted.

Mr Bolsonaro had spent much of his time

on  the  campaign  trail  in  2018  railing

against  China,  which  he  accused  of  want­

ing to “buy Brazil”. When he visited in 2019

he brought along four ministers, but no se­

nior  economic  advisers.  Although  he

spoke  of  how  the  countries  were  “com­

pletely  aligned”,  the  trip  was  overshad­

owed by talk of whether or not he would al­

low  Huawei,  a  Chinese  telecoms  firm,  to

build some of the 5gnetwork in Brazil.

The  relationship  between  Brazil  and

China has never been straightforward, but

under  Mr  Bolsonaro  it  has  never  been

worse.  Despite  his  talk  of  alignment  in

2019,  he  has  continued  to  take  swipes

atChina,ashavemembersofhisfamily,

severalofwhomareinpolitics.Earlyinthe

pandemichisson,Eduardo,spokeofthe

“Chinavirus”.Lastyear, withoutnaming

China,thepresidentmusedthatcovid­19

couldbe“chemicalwarfare”.China,forits

part,maybekeentotradewithBrazil,butit

is increasinglywary ofinvesting in the

country—andintherestofLatinAmerica.

Mr Bolsonaro’s antagonism has not

gone unnoticed by Chineseofficials. In

2020 LiYang,China’sconsulgeneralinRio

deJaneiro,wrotea commentpieceforO

Globo, a newspaper,inwhichheresponded

toEduardo’scommentswithunusualfe­

rocity.ThebossofSinovacBiotech,a Chi­

nesefirmwhichprovidedcovidvaccines

toBrazil,wasquotedbyReutersastelling

diplomats that the president’s remarks

werepreventinga “fluidandpositive”rela­

tionshipbetweenthetwocountries.

SometimesChinalikestoremindBrazil

ofitspower.LatelastyearBrazilianbeefex­

portstook ahitwhenChinaimposeda

three­monthbanonthemaftertwocases

ofatypicalmad­cowdiseasewerefoundin

differentstates.Thevalueofbeefexports

slumped; the ban cost around $2bn in

sales. Many thought the embargo was

unusuallylong.

The row over beef notwithstanding,

tradebetweenBrazilandChinahasflour­

ished,eventhroughthepandemic.In 2021

Chinaboughtover30%ofBrazil’sphysical

exports,upfromlessthan20%fiveyears

earlier.Mostofthiswassoyabeans,crude

oilandironore,butshipmentsofmeatand

otherhigher­valuegoodshavealsogrown

inrecentyears,particularlysincethetrade

warbetweentheUnitedStatesandChina

tookoffin 2017 (seechart1).

BeefswithBolsonaro

But othereconomic ties between Brazil

andChinaappeartobeweakening.China’s

investmentinBrazilpeakedin2010, ac­

cording to the China­Brazil Business

Council(cebc) (seechart2 onnextpage).

B RASÍLIA

Despite thriving trade, China’s relationshipwithBrazilisweakening

→Alsointhissection

26 DeathsofMexicanjournalists

27 Bello:ModernisminBrazil

Surging soya

Brazil, destination of goods exports, % of total

Source:UNComtrade

1

100

75

50

25

0

1995 201510052000

Other

Argentina Netherlands Japan

United States China