The Economist - USA (2022-02-12)

TheEconomistFebruary12th 2022 Europe 43

Scholzpresentedhimselfasaccomplished
andunflappable,andsoa naturalheirto
AngelaMerkel.ButMrsMerkelhadbeenin
officefornineyearswhenshemarshalled
theeu’s responsetoRussia’sannexationof
Crimeain2014.MrScholzhasa longcvbut
littleforeign­policyexperience.
Indeed,barelytwomonthsafterreplac­
ingMrsMerkel,MrScholzisinatricky
spot.Hetookofficeattheheadofanun­
precedentedthree­partycoalition fizzing
withideas,notablyongreeningGermany’s
industrial economy. Those plans have
startedtounfold,buthavebeenovershad­
owedbya diplomaticcrisisalmostpreci­
sion­engineeredtotesttheyounggovern­
ment’sresolve.Thepartieshavedifferent
instinctsonRussia;thespdevenhascom­
peting wings. During coalition negotia­
tionsinNovembernoforeign­policyissue
proved trickier than Russia and Nord
Stream2.“Thisdebatehaswrong­footed
thegovernment,”saysa Germanofficial.
Voters have noticed. Two­thirds say
theyareunhappywiththeirgovernment’s
responsetotheUkrainecrisis.Aftera nar­
rowelectionwinlastSeptember,thespd
hasslidbehindits conservativerival in
polls.(TheGreensandthepro­business
FreeDemocrats,thejuniorcoalitionpart­
ners,areholdingsteady.)BeforeMrScholz
tookofficehalfofGermanssaidtheyex­
pectedhimtogovernwell.Nowbarelya
fifthsayhehasmadea goodfistofthings.
Thisisdespitea foreign­policystance
broadly inline withpublicpreferences.
Three­quartersofGermansdonotwishto
sendarmstoUkraine.TheysupportNord
Stream2,oratleastwouldprefertoseques­
terit fromdiplomaticrows.FewthinkGer­
manyshouldbeconfrontationaltowards
Russia.Thecoalitionhassofardefiedex­
pectationsthatitwouldproveendlessly
quarrelsome.Instead,votershavegrown
frustratedwithaleaderwhosereticence
hasbeenacuteevenbythemodeststan­
dardsofGermanchancellors.“Ifyouorder
leadershipfromme,youwillgetit,”Mr
Scholzoncesaid.Germansarenodoubtre­
lievedtoseehimfinallytry.n

Honeymoon over

Germany, Olaf Scholz’s approval rating , %

Source: Morning Consult

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

202 2022

Dec Jan Feb

Disapprove

Approve

Bosnia

Shaky state

A

plaque onSarajevo’smagnificentold

townhall,builtundertheAustro­Hun­

garianempire,commemoratesitsdestruc­

tion by“Serbiancriminals”in1992.The

hallhasbeenreconstructed,butBosnia­

Herzegovinaiscrumbling.Thecountryis

facingitsworstcrisissincetheendofthe

warin1995.

The Dayton Accords that ended the

fightinginBosniacreateda countrycom­

posedoftwomainentities:theSerbian­

dominatedRepublikaSrpska(rs) andthe

so­calledFederation,whereBosniaks(Bos­

nianMuslims)sharepowerwithBosnian

Croats.Abovethemwasa largelytoothless

nationalgovernment,whichhasgradually

acquireda fewmorepowersanda smallar­

my.A foreign“HighRepresentative”was

appointedtooverseethedeal.Thesystem

helpskeepthepeaceamongBosnia’sonce­

warringethnicgroups,butalsoprovides

vastopportunitiesforcorruption.

Nowthisstructureisunderthreat.Mil­

oradDodik(pictured),theSerbianmember

of the country’s three­man presidency,

wantstorescindpowersgrantedbythers

totheBosnianstate.Thatissecessioninall

butname.Themostexplosiveproposalis

torecreatethers’sarmy,whichmurdered

8,000BosniaksatSrebrenicain1995.Mr

Dodik’spowerplaystartedinJuly,afterthe

HighRepresentativeimposeda lawmak­

ingitillegaltodenythatthemassacreat

Srebrenicawasgenocide.DamirArnaut,an

mp, saysMrDodik’srealaimisto“deflect

debateaboutcorruption”.

Meanwhile hdz, the main Bosnian

Croatparty,isthreateningtoscupperthis

year’splannedelections.Foryearsithas

objected to the fact that Bosniaks and

CroatsvotejointlyfortheFederation’sBos­

nianandCroatianrepresentativesinthe

presidency. Hence Zeljko Komsic, the

Croat representative, is elected mainly

withBosniakvotes.MrKomsicobjectsto

changingtheelectoralrulestodividethe

Federation’svotersbyethnicity,sayingthe

hdzandMrDodikaretryingtoachieve

whatseparatistleadersfailedtoduringthe

war.ThosethreateningBosnia’sconstitu­

tionshouldbearrested,heinsists—seated

undera portraitofMarshalTito,theformer

leaderofunitedYugoslavia.

Argumentsoverethnicdivisionsleave

Bosnia’spoliticiansunabletogovern.The

countryhasEurope’ssecond­highestdeath

tollfromcovid­19relativetopopulation.

TheprimeministeroftheFederationison

trialforcorruptionrelating to the procure­

mentofsub­standardventilators. In the rs

cheapindustrialoxygenwas used for covid

patientsinsteadofthemedical sort. 

OnJanuary9ththers’s paramilitary po­

licemarchedina paradefor the republic’s

30thanniversary,thoughthe constitution­

alcourthadruledtheholiday illegal. Look­

ingonwithMrDodikwasthe Russian am­

bassador.OnJanuary5thAmerica imposed

sanctionsonMrDodikfor  “attempting  to

dismantle”Daytonandfor corruption. In­

dividual Europeancountries  will  follow

suit,butnottheeuasa whole, as Hungary,

whichsupportsMrDodik,will not allow it.

The atmosphere is febrile.  Some  are

talkingofwaragain,although Ljubisa Cos­

ic,themayorofEastSarajevo, which is in

thers, saysthereis“nochance”  of  that.

The border divides neighbourhoods,  he

says,andeverydaypeople from the rsgo

toworkinSarajevowhilepeople from the

capitalcome to ski inhis  constituency.

Dealscanbemadetohalt  the  rs’s  with­

drawalfromnationalinstitutions, he says.

ZlatkoMiletic,anmpand former police

chief,saysthenumberofmen under arms

inBosniaissmallandthat  “a  real  war”

couldhappenonlyif Serbia and Croatia get

involved.Diplomatsarewatching Ukraine.

IfwarbreaksoutthereMr  Dodik,  encour­

agedbyMoscow,mightramp up his sepa­

ratistdrive.Bosniahasrepeatedly survived

crisessince1995,andwillprobably survive

thisone.Butthepopulationhasshrunk

from4min 1991 toabout3mtoday. Bosni­

ansarevotingwiththeirfeet.n

S ARAJEVO

The multi-ethnic country is on the brink of falling apart again

The shadow of history