The Washington Post - USA (2022-02-13)

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 13 , 2022. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A

DANIEL LEAL/POOL/REUTERS

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives in Warsaw on

Thursday. The crisis offers an opportunity to prove that post-Brexit

Britain is still a force to be reckoned with on the global stage.

BY RICK NOACK,

LOVEDAY MORRIS

AND KARLA ADAM

paris — It was a week of mad-
dash diplomacy for European
leaders, a dramatic shift after two
years in which the pandemic halt-
ed most international travel.
French President Emmanuel
Macron hit Moscow, Kyiv and
Berlin. British Prime Minister
B oris Johnson met with the head
of NATO in Brussels, then flew to
visit British troops deployed in
Poland. And new German Chan-
cellor Olaf Scholz made his first
official trip to Washington and
plans to visit Kyiv and Moscow
this week.
Macron, Johnson and Scholz
are trying to prove themselves on
the world stage and send specific
signals to their domestic con-
stituents. But they also share the
same overarching goal: to stop a
looming ground war involving
Russia on the European conti-
nent.
Whether they will succeed is
unclear. Many European govern-
ments had made a deliberate
choice to keep their embassy
staffs in Ukraine while other
countries were evacuating some
of theirs in the past days and
weeks. But as U.S. officials
warned Friday that Putin could
invade Ukraine within the week,
one country after another told its
nationals to leave immediately.
When Russia last invaded
Ukraine, in 2014, it was German
Chancellor Angela Merkel, with
her fluent Russian and more than
a decade of experience in dealing
with Vladimir Putin, who natu-
rally took the lead in shepherding
a European response with sanc-
tions. And it was Merkel and
French President François Hol-
lande who eventually brokered a
peace deal with the Minsk agree-
ment. But now, as Europe faces its

first security crisis since Merkel’s

departure in December, the ab-

sence of her influence is being

felt.

Olaf Scholz tries to find his

footing

Although Scholz is only a few

months into the job, being chan-

cellor of the European Union’s

most populous nation and big-

gest economy automatically con-

veys clout. His approach has of-

ten mirrored Merkel’s cautious

style, and as her finance minister

and vice chancellor, he built a

reputation as a steady hand dur-

ing crises.

But the standoff over Ukraine

has been a high-stakes test for the

new leader.

His coalition government has

struggled to agree on a joint

approach — on the tone to take

with Moscow, on potential sanc-

tions, on whether the Nord

Stream 2 natural gas pipeline

between Russia and Germany

should be used as leverage. In a

leaked cable, the German ambas-

sador in Washington, Emily Hab-

er, warned Berlin that it was

increasingly being perceived in

the United States as an “unreli-

able partner,” Der Spiegel report-

ed.

Scholz’s flurry of diplomacy is

no doubt aimed, in part, to coun-

ter that impression. At a news

conference at the White House

last Monday, he said that his

country was “absolutely united”

with the United States and other

NATO allies and asserted that “we

will not be taking different steps.”

Still, he avoided making any di-

rect statements about Nord

Stream 2. It was Biden who deliv-

ered the forceful message: “If

Russia invades, that means tanks

or troops crossing the border of

Ukraine again, there will be no

longer Nord Stream 2. We will

bring an end to it.”

Some in Merkel’s camp have

drawn a contrast between

Scholz’s performance and the for-

mer chancellor’s studied compe-

tence. It would be good “if Olaf

Scholz consulted Angela Merkel,”

said Markus Söder, the head of

the smaller sister party of Scholz

and Merkel’s Christian Demo-

crats.

Germany’s new chancellor just

needs time to find his feet, said

Wolfgang Ischinger, a former

German ambassador to the Unit-

ed States and the chairman of the

Munich Security Conference.

“I’m sure Olaf Scholz regrets

more than anyone else that he

had to start his mission at a

moment of extreme international

attention,” Ischinger said.

He noted that when Macron

was elected to the French presi-

dency in 2017, he was the “new kid

on the block,” while Merkel had

already served for about a decade.

“She knew everybody around

the world, and she was known to

everyone around the world,” he

said. “And Emmanuel Macron

had to make his first phone calls.

That creates an unequal relation-

ship for a while.”

The Ukraine crisis is likely to

explode or be resolved before

Scholz is able to make those con-

nections.

Emmanuel Macron as Putin’s

interlocutor

Long overshadowed on the in-

ternational stage by Merkel, Ma-

cron has claimed a central role in

negotiations between Ukraine

and Russia. He has been pushing

for a diplomatic resolution

through what is known as “Nor-

mandy Format” talks — involving

France, Germany, Ukraine and

Russia. And in addition to his

5½-hour meeting with Putin in

Moscow, he has spoken to the

Russian leader multiple times by

phone in recent days, including

for more than an hour on Satur-

day.

“It’s a moment of war and

peace, a moment of history that’s

happening in Europe — and he

cherishes these moments, when

he thinks everything is at stake,

and he wants to get involved,”

said Joseph de Weck, the author

of a book on Macron.

De Weck added: “I think he

would act exactly the same way” if

there wasn’t a French presiden-

tial election in two months.

When he met with Putin last

Monday, Macron struck a concil-

iatory tone that surprised some

observers. He called Russia a

“friend” and asserted: “There’s no

security for the Europeans if

there is no security for Russia.”

Some observers raised ques-

tions about whether Macron

might be going rogue. And it is

true that he wants Europe to

stake out greater independence

from the United States on secu-

rity issues. But he has been con-

sulting regularly with President

Biden and with his European

allies. On both sides of the Atlan-

tic, there seems to be a concerted

effort to avoid the sort of surprise

and anger that followed the Biden

administration’s move to share

sensitive nuclear-powered sub-

marine technology with Aus-

tralia, which effectively canceled

an earlier agreement between

Australia and France.

Macron also followed his Mos-

cow meeting by issuing a joint

declaration with Scholz and Pol-

ish President Andrzej Duda,

warning that “any further mili-

tary aggression by Russia against

Ukraine will have massive conse-

quences and severe costs.”

On Saturday, he told Putin “sin-

cere dialogue was not compatible

with escalation,” according to the

French government summary of

the call.

“Macron dreams of repeating

the feat of Nicolas Sarkozy,” said

Marc Endeweld, the author of

several books on French foreign

policy and Macron. When

Sarkozy was president in 2008, he

managed a diplomatic resolution

of the crisis between Georgia and

Russia. Endeweld noted that

then, as now, France held the

rotating six-month presidency of

the European Union.

French government officials

have been eager to convey that

Macron’s efforts are helpful. In a

briefing with journalists, a senior

French official recalled Putin say-

ing that Macron is “the only one

with whom he could have such

in-depth discussions.”

But as Emre Peker of the Eur-

asia Group noted in a risk-assess-

ment memo: “The Kremlin also

made clear after the Macron-Pu-

tin meeting that the US is Russia’s

primary dialogue partner on Eu-

ropean security.”

Boris Johnson sets out to

prove himself and ‘Global

Britain’

The departure of Britain from

the European Union has made it

harder for the country to claim

the title of leader of Europe. But

that didn’t stop Johnson from

boasting that he and his govern-

ment were “bringing the West

together” on Ukraine.

Britain undoubtedly plays an

outsize role in military support

for Ukraine. It has supplied 2,

antitank weapons, provided

training for 22,000 Ukrainian sol-

diers and committed $110 million

to bolster the Ukrainian navy.

Johnson has emphasized that

British soldiers will not fight in

Ukraine. But he is sending 350

Royal Marines to Poland. And

when meeting with NATO Secre-

tary General Jens Stoltenberg last

week, the prime minister said he

offered to double the British

troop numbers in Estonia, deploy

more Royal Air Force jets to

southern Europe and dispatch a

destroyer and offshore patrol ves-

sel to the eastern Mediterranean.

Johnson said this was “prob-

ably the most dangerous mo-

ment” in what he described as

“the biggest security crisis Eu-

rope has faced for decades.”

For Johnson’s government, the

Ukraine crisis offers an opportu-

nity to prove that post-Brexit Brit-

ain is still a force to be reckoned

with on the global stage.

The country’s withdrawal from

the E.U. limited its opportunities

to be a transatlantic bridge. But

Britain remains one of the domi-

nant military powers in NATO

and Europe, alongside the United

States and France, and is a mem-

ber of the “Five Eyes” intelligence

alliance.

Britain isn’t reliant on Russian

natural gas as some European

countries are. It gets about half of

its gas from domestic fields in the

North Sea, and it imports about a

third from Norway.

That “allows Britain a margin

of freedom, of maneuverability,”

said Jonathan Eyal, associate di-

rector at the Royal United Ser-

vices Institute in London.

But critics say the British gov-

ernment’s tough talk is under-

mined by the fact that London

has long been a playground for

Russian oligarchs, who pour bil-

lions of dollars into the property

market.

Johnson’s ability to devote

himself to the Ukraine crisis also

is constrained by his situation at

home in Britain. On Friday, he

received a questionnaire from

Scotland Yard, signaling that he is

among those personally being in-

vestigated for participating in

parties that may have violated

pandemic lockdown rules.

Adam reported from London and

Morris from Berlin.

European leaders vie for diplomatic w ins on Ukraine

ANNA MONEYMAKER/GETTY IMAGES

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz leaves after a news conference with
President Biden in his first official visit to Washington last week.
Only a few months into the job, the Ukraine crisis is posing a test.

JEAN-FRANCOIS BADIAS/POOL/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK

French President Emmanuel Macron visits a GE Steam Power

System s ite in Belfort, France, on Thursday. Macron has claimed a

central role in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

the heavily armed Russian en-

clave of Kaliningrad and Belarus,

which is hosting tens of thou-

sands of Russian forces and their

weapons for an exercise that

military analysts fear is cover for

an invasion of Ukraine.

“We feel like West Berlin in

Cold War times,” Kasciunas said.

The United States and NATO

also could provide greater air

defenses for the Baltic nations

and other eastern flank coun-

tries if Russia invades Ukraine,

said Ben Hodges, the former

commander of U.S. Army Europe

who is now at the Center for

European Policy Analysis. Roma-

nia is the only country in the

region with U.S.-made Patriot

missile defenses. The alliance

also could enhance the logistics

necessary to provide rapid rein-

forcements to the Baltic nations

in the event of a conflict with

Russia, he said.

“A full-scale Russian invasion

would do nothing but galvanize

solidarity in the alliance,” said

James Stavridis, former NATO

supreme allied commander for

Europe. “It would also open the

door for permanent deployments

into NATO member states on the

Russian border, most notably

Poland.”

The pressure the United States

is facing from China in the

Indo-Pacific also requires in-

creased commitments from the

Pentagon, so Western European

allies will need to contribute

heavily if NATO expands its ac-

tivities and reverts fully to a

territorial defense mission in the

aftermath of any Russian inva-

sion, said Jim Townsend, a for-

mer top Defense Department

policy official.

“It’s now a home game,”

Townsend said, “and allies are

going to have to step up like they

did in the Cold War.”

southeastern flank of NATO

must be reinforced.

“This is what we need — a

permanent presence — because

as we’ve seen in the last seven

years, Russia is not a friend,” he

said. “This is very, very clear.

Romania is a country with a long

and traumatic history with Rus-

sian aggression.”

Lithuania is seeking a “heel to

toe” rotation of U.S. troops,

which would mean there is al-

ways a U.S. force present in the

country even if it’s not perma-

nently based there, said Laury-

nas Kasciunas, chairman of the

Lithuanian parliament’s nation-

al security and defense commit-

tee.

Lithuania is situated between

diers and a direct war with the

United States, top officials in the

countries reason.

Romania, which joined NATO

in 2004, feels particularly ex-

posed and is pushing for addi-

tional U.S. forces on its territory.

The country shares the biggest

land border of any NATO country

with Ukraine, as well as a coast-

line on the Black Sea that is

difficult to defend. It also houses

Europe’s only operational Aegis

Ashore missile defense facility,

making the country a target of

Moscow’s ire.

“What we need is a permanent

presence of United States sol-

diers,” Romanian ambassador to

the United States Andrei Muraru

said in an interview, noting the

through allied nations on

NATO’s eastern flank rather than

stationing them there perma-

nently, even though many offi-

cials from NATO countries be-

lieve that Russia already violated

the act with its invasion of

Ukraine in 2014. A U.S. official

said the Biden administration

would not feel at all constrained

by the act if Moscow were to

violate the pact by mounting a

full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Eastern flank countries for

years have been pushing for

more U.S. forces on their soil as a

deterrent to Moscow, seeing U.S.

troops as a trip wire for the

Kremlin. Russia would think

twice about invading their terri-

tory if it risked killing U.S. sol-

Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and

Hungary, according to a NATO

diplomat who, like others, spoke

on the condition of anonymity to

discuss internal deliberations.

The diplomat said any additional

rotations through those coun-

tries would depend on whether

the host government is willing to

accept them.

The United States would also

almost certainly step up the

rotation of U.S. forces through

eastern NATO member states, as

well, the diplomat and a U.S.

official added. A senior defense

official said that “there have

been discussions but no deci-

sions” about more permanent

moves.

NATO is also likely to expand

exercises, training programs and

intelligence collection, as well as

air policing missions and mari-

time deployments in the Black

Sea and the Baltic Sea, the diplo-

mat said.

The hardening of the eastern

flank’s defenses would run coun-

ter to Putin’s demands. In addi-

tion to insisting that NATO halt

its eastward expansion, Russia

has demanded the alliance pull

its forces and weaponry back to

its 1997 boundaries.

The year isn’t arbitrary. In

1997, NATO and Russia signed

the NATO-Russia Founding Act,

declaring that they “do not con-

sider each other as adversaries.”

In the pact, NATO said that “in

the current and foreseeable secu-

rity environment,” the alliance

didn’t envision any “additional

permanent stationing of sub-

stantial combat forces” beyond

the existing boundaries. At the

time, former Warsaw Pact coun-

tries and Soviet republics east of

Germany were not yet members

of NATO.

The act is one reason the

United States rotates forces

For years, the United States
had been drawing down forces
and removing weaponry from
Europe, as NATO cast about for a
new mission in the aftermath of
the Cold War. But after Russia
invaded Ukraine in 2014 and
annexed Crimea, Washington
and its European allies changed
course, again seeing the need to
mount defenses against a threat
emanating from Moscow, partic-
ularly in newer NATO member
states close to Russia.
In the years after 2014, NATO
established combat-ready battle
groups in the Baltic countries
and Poland. Those multinational
forces, totaling about 4,500, are
led by the United States in Po-
land, Germany in Lithuania,
Canada in Latvia and Britain in
Estonia.
NATO also set up a multina-
tional brigade in Romania, as
well as an air policing mission,
and established the Very High
Readiness Joint Task Force, or
the VJTF, a unit on alert to
deploy to NATO threats at a
moment’s notice.
The United States also has
been supporting eastern flank
allies on a bilateral basis by, for
example, periodically rotating a
U.S. armored battalion through
Lithuania, a combat aviation bri-
gade through Latvia and U.S.
Special Operations Forces
through all three Baltic coun-
tries. The U.S. Army also estab-
lished a forward command post
in Poznan, Poland, to oversee
rotational forces in Europe.
If Russia invades Ukraine,
such activities are likely to grow
in scope and quantity. The alli-
ance is considering placing
c ombat-ready battle groups —
such as the ones already operat-
ing in Poland and the Baltics — in

FORCE FROM A

West will bolster eastern defenses if Russia attacks Ukraine

BEATA ZAWRZEL/ASSOCIATED PRESS

U.S. troops of the 82nd Airborne Division deployed to Poland s et up at a military airport Saturday. The

United States and NATO will consider increasing their presence in the eastern flank if Russia invades.