(^98) THE WEALTH AND POVERTY OF NATIONS
mists, not so much because one can ever know the answers but for their
heuristic value. Looking backward, we think we know what happened.
Looking forward, we have to contemplate diverse outcomes. Such
questions focus attention on cause and effect, help us distinguish be
tween major and minor, direct and indirect influences, suggest possi
bilities otherwise overlooked.
On the possibility of continued Chinese maritime expansion, for ex
ample, one has to consider the possibility of violence, of competition
decided by force. On the surface, the Chinese were immeasurably
stronger and richer. Who could stand up to them? Yet reality ran the
other way. The Chinese had learned the secret of gunpowder before
the Europeans, but the Europeans had better guns and greater fire
power, especially at a distance. The Chinese had bigger ships, but the
Europeans were better navigators. If we compare the two sides around
1400, the Chinese might have come out on top, at least in the Indian
Ocean or South China Sea. (Even a strong animal has trouble defeat
ing his weaker prey close to home.) But fifty years later, even in Asian
waters, the Europeans would have run circles around the Chinese ves
sels. Of course, the Chinese might have learned by experience and
eventually met the Europeans with comparable weapons and ships.
That is one of the problems with hypotheticals: they are open-ended,
and confidence levels diminish with speculation.
Isolationism became China. Round, complete, apparentiy serene,
ineffably harmonious, the Celestial Empire purred along for hundreds
of years more, impervious and imperturbable. But the world was pass
ing it by.
nora
(Nora)
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