THE SOUTH AMERICAN WAY^315One mechanized industry did gain a foothold—the textile manu
facture—but only late in the nineteenth century. Brazil and Mexico led
here. In cotton, the raw fiber often had to be imported, and yielded a
coarse product for popular consumption. Mexico also boasted a
woolen industry. This went back to colonial times, took the form of
hand workshops (obrajes), and died in the face of imported fabrics;
then was reborn in small factories behind tariff walls, drawing fleece
from a somewhat degraded stock of merino sheep, and again supplied
popular needs. Rich folk bought their fabrics from abroad. Their skin
was more sensitive.
South America's industrial beginnings did not generate an industrial
revolution. Even the construction of railways did not do the trick.
Some things had to be done at home: the machines had to be serviced
and repaired, for example. But these shops stuck to maintenance; al
most never did they move on to manufacturing on their own. Once
again, natural and social circumstances were unfavorable. Fuel and ma
terials cost more than in Europe or the United States, and skills were
wanting. It was all very rational: comparative advantage made it easier
and cheaper to buy abroad.
The trouble with such rationality is that today's good sense may be
tomorrow's mistake. Development is long; logic, short. The economic
theory is static, based on conditions of the day. The process is dy
namic, building on today's abstinence to tomorrow's abundance.*
Some things will never happen if one does not try to make them hap
pen. If the Germans had listened to John Bowring... That British eco
nomic traveler extraordinary lamented that the foolish Germans
wanted to make iron and steel instead of sticking to wheat and rye and
buying their manufactures from Britain. Had they heeded him, they
would have pleased the economists and replaced Portugal, with its
wine, cork, and olive oil, as the very model of a rational economy.
They would also have ended up a lot poorer.
The Latin country with the best chances was Argentina, although no
one would have suspected this in the great days of Spanish empire.
Buenos Aires around 1600 was the end of the world. Located on open
grasslands lightiy peopled, it was a way station between the silver of Po-
tosi, high in the Andes in today's Bolivia, and the food exports of
southeastern Brazil. Commerce was in the hands of Portuguese traders.
* One can of course be wrong and build a house of cards. This is what happened in
the Egypt of Muhammad Ali and in the Paraguay of the dictators Lopez—see below.