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uncertainty The possibility of more than
one outcome resulting from a particular
course of action, the form of each possible
outcome being known but the chance or
probability of one particular outcome being
unknown. Uncertainty differs fromrisk,in
that under conditions of risk it is possible to
know the probability of a particular outcome.
For example, in tossing a coin the probability
of heads coming up is 0.5, so betting on the
toss of a coin is a risk. Playing Russian roulette
is a risk (also ‘risky’) if the pistol is known to
be loaded; with a bullet in one of the six cham-
bers, there is a one-in-six probability of death
with any shot. However, if it was not known
whether the gun was loaded, this would be a
situation of uncertainty.
Uncertainty is part of the environment
within which locationaldecision-makingis
made. This greatly limits the practical value
of theories and models that assume perfect
knowledge. For example, the firm setting up
a new factory or service outlet in a new terri-
tory cannot know what the reaction of com-
petitors is likely to be. They may follow suit
with new facilities of their own, they may find
an alternative competitive strategy, or they
may choose not to compete: there is no way
of calculating the probability of each option.
Residential choice is similarly made under
conditions of uncertainty – for example, with
respect to the stability of the neighbourhood
or the sociability of the neighbours. dmsunderclass This term was introduced in the
USA to refer to multiply deprived individuals
who experience a form ofpovertyfrom which
there is virtually no escape (cf.cycle of pov-
erty). In the USA, those classified as part of
the underclass are mainly African-Americans
or Latinas/os. Most lack higher education,
skills that are in demand, and any apparent
means of achieving upward socialmobility.
Many are from single-parent families and are
living on social assistance. There is also a geo-
graphical dimension to the underclass: it is
usually identified with stigmatized neigh-
bourhoods that are areas of concentrated
poverty and few job opportunities (Bauder,
2002). Members of the underclass experience
aspatial mismatchin that they cannot findwork where they live, but also cannot afford
the cost of transportation (and childcare
expenses) to obtain work in more distant areas
of the city (Mingione, 1996). These problems
are compounded by discrimination against
women and minorities in labour markets
(seegender). In recent years, the term has
been used to apply to extremely poor popula-
tions outside the USA, in Europe and increas-
ingly in the developing world (see, e.g., Breman
and Agarwal, 2002; Keyder, 2005; Solinger,
2006: see alsodevelopment).
While liberal and radical analysts emphasize
the structural causes of poverty (the nature of
capitalism,patriarchyandracism– Wilson,
1987; Gans, 1995), conservative authors
concentrate on the personal characteristics
and lifestyles of the disadvantaged (Auletta,
1982). This latter view usually draws upon
theculture of povertythesis outlined by Oscar
Lewis (1959) in his anthropological studies of
Latin Americanslumsduring the 1950s and
1960s. Lewis argued that the very poor share
behavioural patterns that on the one hand
allow them to cope with poverty, but on
the other hand reproduce their disadvantage
(e.g. a sceptical attitude towards education,
that is passed on tochildren). While this
was unintended by Lewis, his idea of adapta-
tion to poverty has been taken up by conser-
vative commentators who believe that people
are poor because of choices they make. This
‘blame the victim’ mentality permeates
through much of the underclass debate, at
least in the USA. Because of the frequent
association of the term ‘underclass’ with this
conservative view, many critical scholars
refuse to use it.
The size of the underclass appears to be
growing in North America and Europe, as
governments reduce the scope and universality
of social programmes, and as mental health
patients are deinstitutionalized. The impact
ofimmigrationon the underclass is also a
topic of concern, and some authors believe
that a new ‘rainbow underclass’ is forming in
the USA (e.g. Portes, 2003; for an opposing
view, see Waldinger and Feliciano, 2004).
public policyin Western countries tends
to oscillate between liberal/radical and conser-
vative views on poverty and the underclass,Gregory / The Dictionary of Human Geography 9781405132879_4_U Final Proof page 779 31.3.2009 9:34pm