A24 EZ SU THE WASHINGTON POST.SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 20 , 2022
order given to Russian subordi-
nates to proceed with a full-scale
attack, according to several peo-
ple familiar with the matter, who
spoke on the condition of ano-
nymity because of the matter’s
sensitivity. The United States ob-
tained intelligence on the order
as Russian military and security
officials were taking steps to
implement it, and did so very
recently, the people said.
The president’s statement “re-
flects the assessments of the in-
telligence community,” a senior
administration official said. “As
he also made clear, the door to
diplomacy will remain open.”
Asked how he knew Putin’s
intentions, Biden noted in his
remarks Friday that the United
States has “a significant intelli-
gence capability.”
He also said that before mak-
ing his speech, he had a call with
the leaders of NATO allies and
UKRAINE FROM A1 the European Union “to bring
them up to date on what the
United States thinks is the cur-
rent state of affairs and what’s
likely to happen in Ukraine in the
coming days.”
Some European allies ques-
tioned the United States’ convic-
tion that the Kremlin will launch
hostilities, saying they have not
seen direct evidence suggesting
Putin has committed to such a
course of action.
One European official told The
Washington Post in Munich that
“we have no clear evidence our-
selves that Putin has made up his
mind and we have not seen
anything that would suggest oth-
erwise.” Another said that al-
though the situation is grave, “at
this stage we do not have such
clear intelligence” that Putin has
decided to invade.
The officials said they have
been told little about the sources
and methods the United States
used to arrive at its conclusions,
limiting their capacity to make
independent decisions about
how much weight to give state-
ments from Biden that Putin has
made a decision to attack.
“It’s always the raw material
that they do not share,” said one
senior NATO diplomat who has
had extensive conversations with
top American policymakers in
Brussels.
The British have not been
among those making such com-
plaints. U.K. Foreign Secretary
Liz Truss sounded similar warn-
ings to the United States in
Munich on Saturday, asserting
that Ukraine’s “worst-case sce-
nario” — a Russian invasion —
“could happen as early as next
week.”
Administration officials,
meanwhile, pushed back against
the notion that they might be
providing less intelligence to
some allies than others. “Since
we first began seeing signs of
Russia’s military buildup severalmonths ago, we have regularly
shared intelligence and informa-
tion with our allies and partners,
including Ukraine, and have
downgraded intelligence to en-
able that sharing as needed,” a
senior administration official
said.
Russia, meanwhile, has in-
creased its saber-rattling in re-
cent days, announcing Saturday
that it had launched hypersonic
missiles as part of an exercise of
nuclear forces overseen by Putin
in a show of military strength.
The display serves as an overt
reminder to Western leaders of
Russia’s status as a nuclear power
and comes as the world grapples
with the possibility of a land war
in Europe.
Independent watchers have
also recorded a sharp uptick in
attacks along the border of Kyiv-
controlled Ukraine and the re-
gions under the authority of Rus-
sian-backed separatists. The Or-
ganization for Security and Coop-eration in Europe recorded over
1,500 cease-fire violations, “in-
cluding explosions,” in the Do-
netsk and Luhansk regions of
Ukraine on Friday, about double
what they counted the day be-
fore. The increased attacks have
fueled fears that Russia is trying
to craft a false pretext for war by
blaming Ukraine for attacks and
using that to justify an invasion.
Ukraine’s leader made refer-
ence to Russia’s increasingly ag-
gressive moves, the shelling espe-
cially, as he expressed impatience
with the West for what he viewed
as inaction.
“We don’t need to be reminded
of the dates of plausible interven-
tion,” Zelensky said during his
speech to the Munich conference,
adding that “we’re going to pro-
tect our country” regardless of
when Putin attacks.
“I don’t know what the presi-
dent of the Russian Federation
wants,” he later added during an
interview onstage in Munich inwhich he invited Putin to meet
with him.
He coupled that invitation
with a warning, however, that the
troops Putin had built up along
the border were on the lookout
for any exploitable provocation,
and that “one shelling, one can-
non fire, can lead to war.”
The Post reported this past
week that the United States re-
ceived intelligence that Russia’s
announced military pullback
from Ukraine’s border was a de-
liberate ruse to mislead the West.
Biden and NATO’s secretary gen-
eral warned that they saw no
evidence of a pullback.
Vice President Harris made
emphatic declarations in Mu-
nich, vowing that Russia would
see “economic measures that will
be swift and severe” if it invades
neighboring Ukraine.
“There is a playbook of Rus-
sian aggression,” Harris told the
heads of state and government,
SEE UKRAINE ON A25Some European allies question whether Russia will attack
MICHAEL ROBINSON CHAVEZ/THE WASHINGTON POSTUkrainian soldiers in Novoluhanske, in the nation’s war-torn east. Increased shelling on the front lines has prompted fears that Russia is trying to create a false pretext for a wider war.
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