The Economist - UK (2022-02-19)

48 Middle East & Africa The Economist February 19th 2022

Tunisia

“RoboCop” hits a rough patch

O

n thecampaign trail in2019, Kais

Saiedcementedthesobriquet“Robo­

Cop”forhisdour,mechanicaldemeanour.

Hehasliveduptothenicknameaspresi­

dent, methodically targeting Tunisia’s

democratic institutions.In July hesus­

pendedparliamentandmuchofthecon­

stitution.Hehasshiftedthecountryto­

wards apresidentialsystem: though he

nameda primeministerinSeptember,she

isa neophyte,herpowerscircumscribed.

Nowhehastrainedhissightsontheju­

diciary.OnFebruary6thMrSaiedthreat­

ened to dissolve the Supreme Judicial

Council,aconstitutionalpanelthatrec­

ommends nomineesfor judgeships and

overseestheirwork.Inthepresident’stell­

ing,it washopelesslycorrupt.“Youcannot

imagine the money that certain judges

havebeenabletoreceive,”hesaid.

Thoughexaggerated,hiswordsstrucka

chord.Likesomuchinpostrevolutionary

Tunisia,judgesareunpopular.Manysee

themasslowtoprosecutecorruption.The

judgescalledhismoveanassaultontheir

branchofgovernment.

A week later Mr Saied replaced the

councilwitha “temporary”alternativeand

arrogated the power to block judicial

nomineesandtoremovejudgesfor“mis­

conduct”.SaidBenarbia,theregionaldi­

rectorfortheInternationalCommissionof

Jurists,says the decree“ends anysem­

blanceofjudicialindependence”.

Yetallofthishasmeta mutedresponse.

Perhaps2,000peopleprotestedagainstthe

council’sclosure—hardlythesortofmass

demonstrationthat,inthepast,brought

crowdsofactiviststothecapital.FewTuni­

siansseembotheredbythecountry’sde­

scentintoone­manrule.Theopposition,

suchasit is,comesmostlyfromthegroups

affectedbyMrSaied’spowergrab:politi­

ciansandjudges.Buttheyaretoodivided

tomountmuchofa challenge.

Themostobviouscriticismcomesfrom

Ennahda,theIslamistpartythathelda plu­

ralityinthenow­suspendedparliament.

MrSaiedhasbeenparticularlyharshto­

wards its members, blaming them for

muchofTunisia’spost­2011dysfunction.

NoureddineBhiri,a formerministerand

vice­presidentofEnnahda, hasbeende­

tainedwithoutchargesinceDecember.

Butfewotherpartieswilljoinforces

withEnnahda.LeftistsdislikeitsIslamism

and its free­market economics. Secular

factionsarehappytoblameEnnahdafor

the country’s woes—and thus absolve

themselves.Manypoliticians,eventhose

who backed Mr Saied’s power grab last

summer,nowdescribeitasa coup.Ifthey

are uneasy about his anti­democratic

means,though,theyarenotaltogetherun­

happytoseeIslamistsexcludedfrompolit­

icallife.Theideologicalschismsthathave

roiledTunisiafora decademakeithardto

mounta unitedfront.

Civil­societygroupsaresimilarlysplit.

NoTunisianpresidentcangovernwithout

backingfromthemain tradeunion,the

ugtt, whichshareda Nobelpeaceprizein

2015 forhelpingtodefuseanearlierpoliti­

calcrisis.Asidefroma fewsharplyworded

statements,however,theugtthasplayed

littleroleoverthepastsevenmonths.In

partthatisbecauseitsownleadershipis

divided, and fearful that a tough line

againstMrSaiedwouldjeopardise their

ownpower.

NotmanyTunisiansareasking fora

tougherline,anyway.Protesthadbeena

regular featureofpostrevolutionary life.

Taxincreasesin 2018 sparkeda weekofna­

tionwide demonstrations, some violent.

Thousands of people protested in 2017

againstaproposedlaw (whichwaslater

passed)grantingamnestytomembersand

supporters oftheancien régime, the de­

cades­longdictatorshipledbyZineel­Abi­

dineBenAliuntilhisousterin2011.

SinceJulythestreetshavebeencom­

parativelyquiet.“Peopleneeda reallygood

reason to protest. It’s dangerous,” says

HeythemGuesmi,anactivistandveteran

oftheprotestsin2017.KaisSaiedhasn’t

taken  any  decisions  that  have  obviously

harmed  the  young  or  the  poor,  he  adds.

Few will come out for the judges, who tend

to look away when the police beat protes­

ters. “Kais Saied is like a new purchase,” he

muses. “We’re still in the trial period.”

Polls, which can be unreliable in Tuni­

sia, suggest that Mr Saied is losing support

but is still popular. Insights tn, a local poll­

ster, found a majority of respondents now

think his actions were a coup and say they

are  “fearful”  for  democracy.  Neither  view

had majority support last summer.

Emrhod  Consulting,  another  research

firm, found that 67% of the public was sat­

isfied  with  the  president’s  performance.

That  was  a  15­point  drop  from  August  but

still a number that would make most Tuni­

sian  politicians  envious.  His  predecessor,

Beji  Caid  Essebsi,  was  polling  in  the

mid­30s  at  a  similar  point  in  his  term.

“People here don’t really care about...tech­

nical  ideas  of  democracy,”  says  Henda

Chennaoui,  an  activist.  “They  want

change. They want land and jobs.”

Frustration  with  a  poor  economy

helped  propel  Mr  Saied  to  victory  in  2019.

Yet  his  government  has  offered  little  to

strengthen  it.  In  2020,  slammed  by  co­

vid­19, gdpslumped by almost 9% in what

the imfdescribes as Tunisia’s worst reces­

sion since independence in 1956. Although

rebounding, growth remains weak and un­

employment stands at 18%.

Some wonder if Mr Saied has sown the

seeds  of  his  own  downfall.  As  economic

frustrations  mount,  his  popularity  will

probably  wane:  the  downside  of  one­man

rule is that there is only one man to blame.

If  this  leads  to  mass  protest,  a  president

who often speaks in dark tones about con­

spiracies may order a harsh response. The

army, which has historically stayed out of

politics,  is  said  to  be  uneasy  about  the

country’s direction. Having dismantled so

many  of  Tunisia’sinstitutions,  Mr  Saied

may  find  himselffacing  an  angry  public

with few allies. n

TUNIS

His critics are divided, but a deep recession threatens President Kais Saied’s rule

Defending a dream