22 TIME February 28/March 7, 2022
THE VIEW INBOX
IN VIENNA, AN EIGHTH
round of talks on Iran’s round of talks on Iran’s
nuclear programnuclear program con- con-
tinues with little cause tinues with little cause
for hope that a deal is for hope that a deal is
near. The Biden Ad-near. The Biden Ad-
mministration wants a return to the so-inistration wants a return to the so-
called Joint Comcalled Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac-prehensive Plan of Ac-
tion (JCPOA), the nuclear deal agreed to tion (JCPOA), the nuclear deal agreed to
in 2015 by Iran, the Obamin 2015 by Iran, the Obama Adma Administra-inistra-
tion, France, the U.K., Germtion, France, the U.K., Germany, Rus-any, Rus-
sia, and China. Then President Donald sia, and China. Then President Donald
TrumTrump withdrew the U.S. fromp withdrew the U.S. from that deal that deal
in 2018, and Biden ran for President on in 2018, and Biden ran for President on
pledges to bring it back. For now, Iran’s pledges to bring it back. For now, Iran’s
negotiators remnegotiators remain at the table, but ain at the table, but
they’ve mthey’ve made clear Iran is far fromade clear Iran is far from satis- satis-
fi ed with the termfi ed with the terms on off er. A decision s on off er. A decision
in early February by Iran’s armin early February by Iran’s army to show y to show
off a new long-range moff a new long-range mis-is-
sile doesn’t help. sile doesn’t help.
The talks aren’t dead. The talks aren’t dead.
In fact, a return to JCPOA In fact, a return to JCPOA
would, in somwould, in some ways, be e ways, be
easier than it was to reach easier than it was to reach
the original agreemthe original agreement. ent.
The Biden AdmThe Biden Administration inistration
appears willing to accept appears willing to accept
a deal with looser lima deal with looser limits its
on nuclear activity and to on nuclear activity and to
lift sanctions that weren’t lift sanctions that weren’t
part of the original agree-part of the original agree-
mment. In addition, parts of JCPOA begin ent. In addition, parts of JCPOA begin
to expire in a few years. Iran wouldn’t be to expire in a few years. Iran wouldn’t be
mmaking long-termaking long-term concessions. By sign- concessions. By sign-
ing again on the dotted line, Iran could ing again on the dotted line, Iran could
regain access to $100 billion in frozen regain access to $100 billion in frozen
foreign reserves and sell foreign reserves and sell mmore oil at a ore oil at a
mmarket price that’s near $100 per bar-arket price that’s near $100 per bar-
rel. A return to JCPOA would also open rel. A return to JCPOA would also open
new trade and investmnew trade and investment opportuni-ent opportuni-
ties for an Iranian economties for an Iranian economy that badly y that badly
needs themneeds them..
But Iran’s governmBut Iran’s government, now led by ent, now led by
hard-line President Ebrahimhard-line President Ebrahim Raisi, Raisi,
mmay not feel that Iran needs the boost. ay not feel that Iran needs the boost.
China’s willingness to ignore U.S. sanc-China’s willingness to ignore U.S. sanc-
tions in order to buy Iranian oil has pro-tions in order to buy Iranian oil has pro-
vided Tehran an economvided Tehran an economic lifeline it ic lifeline it
didn’t have when JCPOA was signed in didn’t have when JCPOA was signed in- That’s part of why Iran’s currency 2015. That’s part of why Iran’s currency
has strengthened against the dollar over has strengthened against the dollar over
the past two mthe past two months to the highest level onths to the highest level
since Raisi becamsince Raisi became President. e President.
Iran has reason not to trust Biden Iran has reason not to trust Biden
AdmAdministration proministration promises. U.S. elec-ises. U.S. elec-
tions are on the horizon, and the GOP, tions are on the horizon, and the GOP,
which is generally mwhich is generally more hostile than ore hostile than
DemDemocrats to any bargaining with Iran, ocrats to any bargaining with Iran,
is likely to take mis likely to take majority control of both ajority control of both
houses of Congress. Today, Republicans houses of Congress. Today, Republicans
can’t block a Biden deal. But they can can’t block a Biden deal. But they can
comcomplicate its implicate its implemplementation. They entation. They
can also propose new sanctions on Iran, can also propose new sanctions on Iran,
which, even with a Biden veto, could which, even with a Biden veto, could
discourage or delay the return of inter-discourage or delay the return of inter-
national investmnational investment to Iran. Then, of ent to Iran. Then, of
course, there is the 2024 presidential course, there is the 2024 presidential
election. The return of Trumelection. The return of Trump, or the p, or the
election of a Trumelection of a Trump-endorsed nomp-endorsed nominee, inee,
would likely again scut-would likely again scut-
tle any agreemtle any agreement. ent.
Another reason there Another reason there
mmay be no deal: the ay be no deal: the
Biden teamBiden team is m is mightily ightily
distracted at the mdistracted at the mo-o-
mment. Went. With its pandemith its pandemic ic
policy in fl ux, infl ation policy in fl ux, infl ation
at historically high lev-at historically high lev-
els, its legislative agenda els, its legislative agenda
stalled, a credible risk stalled, a credible risk
that Russia will invade that Russia will invade
Ukraine, and a need to Ukraine, and a need to
focus mfocus more attention on China, a new ore attention on China, a new
Iran deal can’t be a top priority. Iran deal can’t be a top priority.
The U.S. won’t remThe U.S. won’t remain at the bar-ain at the bar-
gaining table forever. Iran is now accel-gaining table forever. Iran is now accel-
erating the developmerating the development of its nuclear ent of its nuclear
programprogram, and W, and Washington knows it ashington knows it
can’t allow Iran to use endless talks as can’t allow Iran to use endless talks as
cover to build a bomcover to build a bomb. But if bargain-b. But if bargain-
ing breaks down coming breaks down completely later this pletely later this
spring, Iran could mspring, Iran could move quickly toward ove quickly toward
amamassing enough highly enriched ura-assing enough highly enriched ura-
niumnium for several bom for several bombs, advancing bs, advancing
closer to an actual nuclear weapon than closer to an actual nuclear weapon than
it’s ever been. If that happens, Wit’s ever been. If that happens, Wash-ash-
ington will hit Iran with new sanctions, ington will hit Iran with new sanctions,
and Israel mand Israel might well launch sabotage ight well launch sabotage
attacks on Iran’s physical and digital in-attacks on Iran’s physical and digital in-
frastructure. The risk of an escalating frastructure. The risk of an escalating
mmilitary confl ict can’t be ignored. ilitary confl ict can’t be ignored. THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMERA new Iran nuclear deal
likely to remlikely to remain stalled ain stalled
Iran could
move quickly
toward
amassing
enough highly
enriched
uranium for
several bombsHISTORY
RECONSTRUCTION’S
BLACK POLITICIANSAt least 34 laws restricting
access to voting were passed
by 19 states in 2021, accord-
ing to the Brennan Center for
Justice.
Some historians argue
that this wave of laws making
it harder to vote echoes the
backlash to the electoral
gains made by African Ameri-
cans during Reconstruction
(1865–1877), the era of politi-
cal revolution in the aftermath
of the Civil War.
“Reconstruction was the
fi rst time that this country
tried to be an interracial
democracy—or a democracy,
in other words,” says Eric
Foner, Pulitzer Prize–winning
historian of Reconstruction.
Foner, the author of Free-
dom’s Lawmakers, estimates
that about 2,000 Black Ameri-
cans held public offi ce at the
local, state, and federal levels
during Reconstruction. One of
Black offi ceholders’ biggest
contributions was their role in
establishing state- sponsored
public schools. Among the
notable Black offi ceholders
in this era: Republican Hiram
Revels of Mississippi, the fi rst
Black U.S. Senator, and Robert
Smalls, who escaped enslave-
ment and went on to serve
fi ve terms in the U.S. House
of Representatives.
But Black offi ceholder
numbers started to decline
after 1877. Although the 15th
Amendment to the Constitution
said states couldn’t restrict
voting based on race, state
legislators passed laws that
mandated expensive poll taxes
(fees to vote) and literacy
tests (questions with no right
answers)—and subjected Afri-
can Americans to them more
than white Americans. It wasn’t
until nearly a century later that
the 1965 Voting Rights Act
made literacy tests and poll
taxes illegal.
—Olivia B. Waxman