The Internet Encyclopedia (Volume 3)

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THEORETICALCONSIDERATIONS 443

on methodologies shows that the high levels reported in

later surveys are based on extremely broad definitions of

telecommuting (e.g., as low as 1 day per month), and a fail-

ure to distinguish between people who actually substitute

telecommunications for physical travel versus other tele-

workers (e.g., mobile workers, home-based self-employed

workers, etc.). (The author’s e-mailed requests for addi-

tional details on two such forecasts did not receive re-

sponses.)

THE INTERNET AND OTHER

TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS

FAVORING TELEWORK

In 1969, Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel,

noted that the number of transistors per chip required

for the most efficient production of integrated circuits

seemed to be doubling every year. He later revised his

estimate to 18 months, and this observation came to be

known as “Moore’s Law.” The concept is popularly under-

stood as meaning that the power of computers doubles

every 18 months (or sometimes 2 years), whereas the cost

remains constant.

The progress of the computer industry seems to be

tracking Moore’s Law well, resulting in exponential in-

creases in the power of information and communication

technologies, and rapidly declining costs for measures of

computing power. In addition to widening the use of ex-

isting technologies through lowered costs, the increasing

power enables new applications that were not technically

feasible before. Both the reduced costs and the increased

capabilities have favorable implications for telework.

Recent progress in communications technologies has

positive implications for telecommuting. In the year 2003,

digital subscriber line (DSL) or cable modem connec-

tions are available throughout most of the United States.

For approximately $50 per month, telecommuters can ac-

cess organizational networks and resources over the In-

ternet at transmission rates of several hundred kilobits

per second, without interfering with incoming or outgo-

ing voice communications. This bandwidth is sufficient

to enable real-time audio and video communications.

With more than 3 billion Web pages indexed through the

Google search engine in 2003, the telecommuting knowl-

edge worker also has access to a tremendous wealth of

information resources from all over the world.

The current situation is in is in sharp contrast to what

was available just 10 years before in the early 1990s. At

that time, telecommuters were limited to dial-up con-

nections typically operating at 14.4 kilobits or less per

second. The telephone costs for dialing in to corporate

networks were so high that continuous online communi-

cations were impractical. Even with minimal dial-ins to

remote computers, the potential interference with other

calls often made it necessary to lease an additional phone

for voice communications. Few telecommuters had heard

of the Internet, and the World Wide Web was in its earliest

stages, primarily being used by academic researchers.

The technological future promises to be even more

favorable for telecommuting. Increasing Internet band-

width will make it possible for off-site workers to reduce

the impact of two problems—limited participation in

meetings and reduced access to documents—that have

been a significant impediment to telecommuting in the

past. High-resolution audio and video teleconferencing

will enable telecommuters to “attend” on-site meetings, at

minimal cost, with a presence that is not markedly infe-

rior to that of people who are physically in the conference

rooms. This higher bandwidth will provide inexpensive

real-time access to organizational document management

systems. These increasingly popular systems store docu-

ments in a digital form that can be transmitted over in-

ternal networks and the Internet. In addition to reducing

costs, these systems greatly facilitate “bringing the work

to the worker,” making it possible for employees to ef-

fectively handle a larger proportion of their tasks from

remote locations.

Nonetheless, it remains to be seen whether these in-

creased technological capabilities, by themselves, will

cause telecommuting to become as widespread as Toffler

predicted. It may be that there are other factors at work

that will have a major impact on telecommuting partici-

pation and rates.

THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS

We are all aware of the tremendous advances in support-

ing technologies. Most of us are also only too familiar with

the traffic congestion in major urban centers, which could

make classic telecommuting more attractive in most de-

veloped countries. Many other considerations (e.g., high

fuel taxes outside of the United States, environmental is-

sues including global warming, and the political instabil-

ity of many of the major oil producing nations) strongly

favor increased usage of classic telecommuting. Figure 2

graphically illustrates this perspective, in which explicit

factors have the greatest impact on telecommuting usage.

When expressed as a percent of total working hours,

however, the actual substitution of telecommunications

for vehicle trips is still low, not more than 3% at the start

of the 21st century. This low usage represents a paradox,

in view of the very favorable trends over the three decades

in which the concept has been seriously discussed. In this

same period, there have also been numerous implementa-

tion projects and many research studies. The continuing

low usage despite all this suggests that there may be other,

less obvious factors that are retarding the substitution

of telecommunications for physical travel. Figure 3 illus-

trates the concept that telecommuting usage may be more

affected by implicit factors, which have a greater impact

than the explicit factors illustrated in Figure 2.

What kind of implicit factors could account for the

low usage of telecommuting, despite the favorable explicit

considerations? For possible explanations, I look to two

theories: agency theory from the field of economics and

(neo)institutional theory from sociology.

ORGANIZATIONAL, PERSONAL,

ENVIRONMENTAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL

ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES

DEMAND FOR

TELECOMMUTING

Figure 2: Explicit advantages and disadvantages model.